HomeNFLNFL PredictionsIndianapolis Colts vs Denver Broncos Prediction, Odds and Picks

Indianapolis Colts vs Denver Broncos Prediction, Odds and Picks for Sunday, 12/15/24

Updated: 10:26 AM ET Dec 12, 2024

Empower Field at Mile HighCBS

Colts

4:25 PM ETSun Dec 15

Broncos

LLWLW	Last 5	LLWWW
6-7	Record	8-5
8-5-0	ATS Record	10-3-0
6-7	O/U Record	8-5

Vote on who will cover the spread!

Best Bets

NFL

Game Totals PickBest Bet

Under 44.0(-110)IND Colts @ DEN Broncos

Reasoning

The second half of my Colts vs Broncos predictions is for Sunday’s game to be a low-scoring contest. As stated in my spread prediction, I expect this game to have a playoff-like feel, and points will come at a premium. Even though Richardson has played well lately, the Colts offense hasn’t been elite this year with the Florida Product or Flacco under center, as they rank 22nd in offensive DVOA. Additionally, in Richardson’s four road starts, the Colts have put up just 20.8 PPG.

Although the Colts have played a tough schedule, the Broncos defense won’t be much easier, as they are 5th in the NFL in defensive DVOA and rarely surrender points at home. The Browns put up 32 at Denver in Week 13, but Denver has given up just 14.8 PPG to their five other opponents. I already discussed how Indianapolis will have a fully healthy defense this Sunday, but their zone passing defense limits the opponent’s ability to make big plays. Denver put up 39 on Monday Night Football two weeks ago, but they benefited from two pick-sixes at the hands of Browns QB Jameis Winston and also had a 93-yard TD to WR Marvin Mims Jr. I don’t expect them to be gifted 21 points this Sunday, so Bo Nix + the Broncos offense will have to earn their points against an improving Colts defense.

Not only does Sunday’s contest have a playoff-like feel, but both teams are coming off a bye. Since 2003, the Under has gone 32-23 when two teams face off with 11-15 days of rest, and that trend is 13-1 to the Under since 2021. I expect this trend to continue on Sunday and am backing a low-scoring game in Denver, as both teams should struggle to score 20+ points.

Colts vs Broncos prediction: Under 44 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable down to 43 (-110).

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Luke Lindholm

Colts vs Broncos Pickswise Expert Predictions

NFL

Point Spread Pick

IND Colts +4.0(-110)IND Colts @ DEN Broncos

Reasoning

The Indianapolis Colts will travel to Mile High Stadium this Sunday for a Week 15 matchup with huge playoff implications. The Colts currently have a 25% chance of making the playoffs, according to NFL.com, but a win boosts their chances to 51%, while a loss diminishes their chances to 6%. On the flip side, the Broncos own a 75% likelihood of making the postseason, and a win would increase that to 91%, while a defeat lowers it to 51%. Rookie QB Bo Nix has been playing extremely well this season, but they’ve played the 5th easiest schedule in the NFL compared to Indy, who has played the toughest schedule in the NFL this year. Although a trip to Denver doesn’t make things easier, the Colts can pull off the upset.

Indianapolis has had a back-and-forth season, as QB Anthony Richardson was benched for veteran QB Joe Flacco before being reinstated as the starter in Week 10. Since then, Richardson ranks 8th in PFF’s passing grades and 4th in big-time throw rate, and the Colts are 5-3 against the spread with Richardson under center. Not only that, but DT DeForest Buckner and CB Kenny Moore will be fully healthy this week after the bye, and it seems likely that WR Josh Downs will be back after missing their Week 13 game with a concussion. Therefore, Richardson should have a full WR corps on Sunday.

The key for Sunday will be Indy’s ability to stop Nix, as they’ve allowed 254.1 passing yards per game in their 7 defeats this season. However, Denver has only eclipsed this mark 4 times all season, and they average just 111.2 rushing yards per game (20th in the NFL). Denver could be missing their key CB Riley Moss on Sunday, and backup Levi Wallace was exposed two weeks ago against the Browns. I’m high on this Colts team turning things around down the stretch, and it all starts with a win in Denver, so I’ll back Indy with the points at Mile High.

Colts vs Broncos prediction: Indianapolis +4 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable down to 3.5 (-110).

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Show Bio

Luke Lindholm is the Managing Editor of US Media Partnerships for Spotlight Sports Group (SSG) and is living in Boston, Massachusetts. Luke has been handicapping NCAAF and Soccer for more than five years and loves sharing knowledge with other knowledgeable handicappers in the sports betting industry. For Luke Lindholm media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.

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