HomeNFLNFL PredictionsHouston Texans vs New York Jets Prediction, Odds and Picks

Houston Texans vs New York Jets Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 10/31/24

Updated: 9:52 AM ET Oct 31, 2024

MetLife StadiumAmazon Prime Video

Texans

8:15 PM ETToday

Jets

WWWLW	Last 5	LLLLL
6-2	Record	2-6
3-5-0	ATS Record	2-6-0
2-6	O/U Record	4-4

Texans vs Jets Pickswise Expert Predictions

NFL

Point Spread Pick

NY Jets -1.5(-115)HOU Texans @ NY Jets

Reasoning

We’ve written about the Jets a few times on this site and every time, the state of their franchise only seems to keep on getting worse. Frankly, we’re not sure how New York can improve at this point. They fired their coach, brought in a new stud wide receiver, and we’ve seen plenty of schematic experiments in recent contests. Regardless, they’ve now lost 5 straight. While there isn’t much positive to share about the Jets and their woes, Thursday’s matchup could be a rare opportunity.

Like a few Jets games this season, they probably should have won on Sunday. They outgained the Patriots 336-247, gained more first downs (22-19) and achieved 2 more yards per play (5.9 to 3.9). At halftime, they had what felt like a comfortable 13-7 lead, but they completely sputtered in the final 2 quarters. They missed a field goal, punted twice and allowed the Patriots to stack up 18 points. It was yet another head-scratching result. With their season on the line, they’ll host the Texans in what feels like a make-or-break battle.

The Texans keep winning, but it’s not coming easy. CJ Stroud has been sacked the 4th-most times of any QB (22) heading into Week 9, and no one has been hurried more (38). To draw a comparison, Jalen Hurts has only been hurried 18 times. The Jets’ defense has been cyclically disappointing this season, but they’ve still been good at getting to the QB. They sack opposing throwers on 9.31% of plays (4th overall). CJ Stroud might also be seeing ghosts when he suits up on Thursday night, since last year he had the worst showing of his young NFL career at this very same venue (he went 10 of 23 for 91 yards and no touchdowns in Week 14 in 2023). Both defenses have good matchups in this affair, but it’s the Jets’ defense that needs to show up big if the home team wants to get off this skid. With Houston finding ways to escape losses and regression looming, we’ll go ugly and bet on New York to pull out the much-needed win.

Texans vs Jets prediction: Jets -1.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -2.

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NFL

Game Totals Pick

Under 42.0(-110)HOU Texans @ NY Jets

Reasoning

This one is bound to be slow-moving and probably boring for those who hate defensive contests — Bill Belichick will be delighted. As we noted in the writeup on the spread, CJ Stroud has been hurried, sacked and downright abused behind center this season. Last year at MetLife, he threw for just 91 yards and then got injured by this very same Jets defense, so there’s no doubt they have his respect. Fortunately, Houston’s run-blocking has been far more proficient. Joe Mixon has also come on strong, gaining 100+ yards in each of his last 3 starts and often muscling the Texans past tough 3rd and 4th-down conversions. We like the Texans to rely on their ground game early and often, just like they did against 2 other high-blitzing programs (Denver and Minnesota), which means that the clock will be a-runnin’.

The same can be said for the Jets. Aaron Rodgers has been sacked 18 times (10th) and knocked down 34 times (3rd) this season. Far from his prime, this has been an ongoing limitation for his success in New York. The Texans are 3rd in sacks and 8th in pressure-rate and, like the Jets, their backfield is full of studs that play tight-coverage and make life difficult for opposing throwers. Since both teams will need to rely on their running games and since we have 2 defenses that match up very well against each passer, this profiles as a very slow-moving, low-scoring contest.

Texans vs Jets pick: Under 42 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Chris R. Farley

Chris Farley

Show Bio

Chris is a writer for Pickswise who’s been handicapping the NFL since 2011. He began his public betting career as a betting writer, and has since become a contributing analyst for various betting sites and shows. He was a 5th place winner ($114k) in the 2021 NFL Circa Millions contest, and he owns his own sports betting podcast, Laying the Points. Chris approaches handicapping using psychosocial principles and nuanced market analysis. The NFL and NBA are his favorite and most profitable sports.

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Same Game Parlay

Money Line

HOU Texans Win

Anytime Touchdown Scorer

J. Mixon (HOU) to score a TD

Player Rushing Yards

B. Hall (NYJ) - 70+ rush yds

Reasoning

Houston Texans ML over New York Jets (+110)

It’s actually unbelievable that anyone still thinks the Jets are good. Maybe nobody does – and their status as favorites can simply be attributed to playing at home and facing an opponent that is without receivers Stefon Diggs and Nico Collins. New York certainly can’t be favored on its own merit. Eight games represent without question a big enough sample size to prove that the Jets are frauds. They do have some talent, but the little that they do have hasn’t been allowed to gel with so many moving parts both on the coaching staff and the roster. Aaron Rodgers and company have lost 5 games in a row, including the last 2 in horrible fashion – to the Pittsburgh Steelers by 22 points and to the hapless New England Patriots. It is true that not having Diggs and Collins is a big deal, but CJ Stroud can throw the ball to Tank Dell and hand it off to Joe Mixon. That should be enough to beat the Jets.

Joe Mixon to score a touchdown (-125)

No Diggs and no Collins means the Texans will likely be featuring a steady diet of the ground game. And they might as well against the Jets, who are awesome against the pass (second in yards per game allowed at 161.1). New York has surrendered a mere 6 touchdowns through the air compared to 10 on the ground (only 3 teams have given up more). Mixon has delivered 3 100-yard rushing performances in succession and has been kept under the 100-yard mark just once so far in 2024. He has 6 total TDs (5 rushing, 1 receiving) and only once this season has he been kept out of the end zone. There is no reason why Mixon shouldn’t score a touchdown at least once on Thursday night.

Breece Hall to record 70+ rushing yards (+102)

All signs point to New York giving Breece Hall the rock early and often. First of all, Rodgers is playing thoroughly mediocre football. He probably hasn’t been as bad as his team’s 2-6 record indicates, but he also hasn’t been great. Controlling the clock with Hall running the ball is a better idea for the Jets than Rodgers forcing things via the airwaves. Hall has yardage outputs of 113 and 80 yards in 2 of the past 3 contests and during this stretch he is averaging 15.3 carries per game – tied for his most in any 3-game stretch this year. The Iowa State product now faces a Houston defense that is #3 in the league against the pass while allowing the 9th-most yards per carry at 4.7.

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Ricky Dimon

Pickswise Expert Prop Picks

Player Passing Completions Pick

A. Rodgers (NYJ) - Over 20.5 pass comps(-120)

Reasoning

Rodgers’ median completions for the season sit at 23.5 so right off the bat this is a digestible line. The Jets benefited greatly from a successful running game last week against the Patriots and never really feared the game would get away from them with Brissett under center. They still lost, but it hampered what Rodgers had to do from a game plan perspective. He’s thrown over 35 passes in 5 of 8 games this season and with CJ Stroud as the opposite QB, the Jets will likely need to move the ball up and down the field. Houston is 11th in opponent rushing first downs per game and 13th in opponent rushing play percentage. Assuming Rodgers gets closer to that 35 attempts mark his 61% completion percentage projects him at 21.35 completions. He’s hit this in 5 of 8 on the year, so let’s take Rodgers to clear this number for my best player prop bet on this game.

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Bobby Stanley Jr. (PropHolliday)

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick

G. Wilson (NYJ) to score a TD(+190)

Reasoning

All the attention from the media and bettors has been on Davante Adams since he joined forces with Aaron Rodgers and the Jets. During that 2-game span, Garrett Wilson has remained the Jets’ #1 target. His 25.4% target share leads the team, along with 30% first-read targets. Adams is more than capable of catching his first touchdown as a member of the Jets in this game, but at +160, that’s a pass. Give me Wilson at the better price, as all the numbers point to him being the better option.

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Justin Martin (JutPicks)

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick

D. Schultz (HOU) to score a TD(+360)

Reasoning

The Texans are running thin at the pass-catcher position. Nico Collins is still sidelined, while Stefon Diggs is out for the season with an ACL injury sustained last week. On the outside, we’ll see Robert Woods and John Metchie III while Tank Dell slides into the #1 receiver role. With a loaded Jets secondary and not great prices with those three wideouts, I’ll instead pivot to tight end Dalton Schultz — a reliable target that quarterback C.J. Stroud has looked at all year. Schultz is yet to find the end zone this season, mainly due to Joe Mixon scoring 6 times and Tank Dell scoring twice in the last 3 weeks. But at +360, I’ll live with Schultz as he’s stepping into a more significant role in a game they come in as underdogs against a secondary that can shut down the deep part of the field.

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Justin Martin (JutPicks)

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8:15 PM ETToday

Texans vs Jets TNF Same Game Parlay

Model projections coming soon

Top Trends

Point Spread

The Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog.

Game Totals

The Under is 6-2 in Texans games this season.

Money Line

The Texans have won their last 5 matchups against AFC teams.

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Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) celebrates after a Texans touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Jacksonville Jaguars at NRG Stadium.

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