HomeNFLNFL PredictionsHouston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction, Odds and Divisional Round Picks

Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction, Odds and Divisional Round Picks for Today, 01/18/25

Updated: 12:22 PM ET Jan 17, 2025

Arrowhead StadiumESPN

10-7

Texans

4:30 PM ETToday

15-2

Chiefs

Vote on who will cover the spread!

Best Bets

NFL

Point Spread PickBest Bet

HOU Texans +8.5(-110)HOU Texans @ KC Chiefs

Reasoning

The Houston Texans travel to Kansas City on Saturday as underdogs for their 2nd straight playoff contest. CJ Stroud and company handled the LA Chargers 32-12 in the Wild Card round, as they outgained the Chargers by 168 yards and won the turnover battle 4-1. Facing Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs is a different animal, but this Houston defense is humming. DeMeco Ryans’ unit ranks 4th in the NFL in success-rate allowed, 5th in EPA per play, 2nd in points per quality possession allowed and 5th in total yards allowed (315.0 per game). I don’t expect Mahomes to come out and throw 4 interceptions like Justin Herbert, but this Houston defense can cause issues for the 2-time MVP.

Kansas City had an extra week to prepare for this contest, but they’re just 16-17 ATS with a rest advantage since Mahomes took over in 2018. Although the Chiefs went 15-2 this season, they only won 4 times by more than 8 points. 10 of KC’s contests this year were decided by 7 or less, so they’ve hardly been dominating the opposition. The Chiefs’ lone defeat this season when playing their starters came in Week 11 at Buffalo, as they totaled just 78 rushing yards and Mahomes tossed 2 interceptions. Houston just held the Chargers to 50 rushing yards, so if the Chiefs’ rushing attack doesn’t get going early, the visitors can keep this game close.

These 2 squads met in Week 16 at Arrowhead, and Kansas City won 27-19, covering the 3.5-point spread. The only difference between now and then is that Houston lost Tank Dell in that game to a gruesome leg injury, but I don’t think the Texans wideout is worth 4.5 points. Additionally, Mahomes hasn’t covered big numbers this year, as the Chiefs are just 1-5 ATS this season when they’re 7+ point favorites. The Chiefs historically dominate at Arrowhead, as they are 54-15 SU since Mahomes was named the starter in 2018, but they’re just 31-35-3 ATS. Expect Houston to keep this game close even if KC sneaks away with another field-goal victory.

Texans vs Chiefs prediction: Houston +8.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable down to 7.5.

⏰ Join FanDuel Sportsbook ASAP ⏰ so you can unlock $300 in bonus bets by risking just $5+ with or against our experts’ Texans vs Chiefs picks. You won’t even need a FanDuel promo code!

BET +8.5 NOW WITH

Luke Lindholm

Texans vs Chiefs Pickswise Expert Predictions

NFL

Game Totals Pick

Under 42.5(-115)HOU Texans @ KC Chiefs

Reasoning

The second half of my Texans vs Chiefs picks focuses on a low-scoring affair. These 2 squads combined for 48 points in Week 16, but the Chiefs scored 27 points, which they only did 6 times this season. Kansas City averaged 23.8 ppg at home this year (16th in the NFL), and with the way the Texans’ defense played against the Chargers, I can easily see the Chiefs scoring 21 or less. A major key for Mahomes and company will be whether they can own the line of scrimmage, as this will determine whether they can get their running game going.

On the flip side, I expect this Kansas City defense to come out flying. They’ve allowed just 16.6 ppg in their previous 9 postseason openers, and I expect that to be no different on Saturday. Houston averaged just 23.4 ppg on the road this season, but that number dipped to 16 ppg in their 3 road contests against teams who made the playoffs (Vikings, Packers and Chiefs). S Chamarri Conner, DT Chris Jones and CB Jaylen Watson all practiced on Tuesday for KC, so they will be fully healthy for the first time in weeks, which will likely hamper CJ Stroud’s ability to replicate his 282-yard performance from last weekend.

These 2 teams have combined for a 21-14 (60%) record towards the Under this season, and it has cashed in 5 of the Chiefs’ previous 6 contests. If Houston wants a chance to win this game, they’ll need to get Joe Mixon going and turn the contest into a gritty one. The longer Mahomes stays off the field, the better for Houston, so I expect them to take long, methodical drives. The Texans went no-huddle 5.3% of the time (27th in the NFL) this season, while the Chiefs run it 1.4% of the time (32nd in the NFL), so I’ll bank on a low-scoring dogfight at Arrowhead this Saturday.

Texans vs Chiefs prediction: Under 42.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable down to 42 (-110).

Whether you agree or disagree with our Texans vs Chiefs best bets, make sure to 🔥 create a new account 🔥 without even needing a DraftKings promo code to earn $200 in bonus bets.

BET u41.5 NOW WITH

Luke Lindholm

Show Bio

Luke Lindholm is the Managing Editor of US Media Partnerships for Spotlight Sports Group (SSG) and is living in Boston, Massachusetts. Luke has been handicapping NCAAF and Soccer for more than five years and loves sharing knowledge with other knowledgeable handicappers in the sports betting industry. For Luke Lindholm media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.

Same Game Parlay

Point Spread

HOU Texans +8.5

Player Rushing Yards

J. Mixon (HOU) - Over 57.5 rush yds

Anytime Touchdown Scorer

X. Worthy (KC) to score a TD

Reasoning

Houston Texans +8.5 over Kansas City Chiefs (-115)

The Chiefs effectively took Week 18 off since they already locked up the #1 seed. That means they are basically coming off 2 straight byes and therefore won’t have played a real game in 3 weeks by the time they take the field on Saturday. That is all well and good from a rest and recuperation standpoint, but it’s hard to see them coming out as a well-oiled machine right away in the first quarter.

Regardless, 8.5 points should be enough for Houston even if the best version of this 2024 Kansas City squad shows up. These Chiefs simply don’t blow teams out. 11 of their wins have come by 8 points or fewer, including against none other than the Texans in Week 16. I don’t think the home team will score enough to win by double-digits on Saturday, either. Houston’s defense ranks 5th overall (315.0 yards per game), 4th in success-rate allowed, 5th in EPA per play and 2nd in points per quality possession allowed. With Patrick Mahomes as a starter at Arrowhead Stadium, KC is 54-15 SU but a mere 31-35-3 ATS. The Chiefs may win, but I’ll take the visitors to cover.

Joe Mixon over 57.5 rushing yards (-110)

Mixon was a disaster during the fantasy playoffs and for the first half against Los Angeles it looked like that trend would continue in the real playoffs. Suddenly, however, the former Oklahoma standout ran like a man possessed the rest of the way – helping his team roll into the Divisional Round. Mixon finished with 106 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries. Those 25 touches tied the 2nd-highest mark of the season for Mixon and I expect a similar volume of work this weekend.

The Texans may not be playing from ahead like they were against the Chargers, but that shouldn’t stop them from keeping the ball on the ground. Sometimes the best defense against Mahomes and company is running the clock and keeping them off the field for as long as possible. If Mixon can victimize a stout Chargers defense for 100-plus, asking him to pin at least 58 yards on the Chiefs shouldn’t be too much.

Xavier Worthy to score a touchdown (+215)

Worthy stormed out of the gates like gangbusters as a rookie, scoring 2 touchdowns in the first week, 3 in the first 4 games and 4 in the first 7. The Texas product hit a midseason lull when DeAndre Hopkins started shouldering some of the pass-catching load, but he is once again on fire heading into the playoffs. Worthy found the end zone in each of his last 3 regular-season games — twice through the air and once on the ground. He now faces a Houston defense that surrendered 31 TDs through the air during the regular season. Only the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers gave up more. Let’s back Worthy to continue his scoring binge.

BET +1000 NOW WITH

Ricky Dimon

Pickswise Expert Prop Picks

Player Rushing Attempts Pick

J. Mixon (HOU) - Over 15.5 rush atts(-125)

Reasoning

The real Joe Mixon is back! He almost cost me my fantasy championship (luckily Joe Burrow saved the day) with a late-season slump and then was bottled up again during the first half of last week’s Wild Card game against Los Angeles. Suddenly, though, Mixon came out in the 2nd half like gangbusters. The former Oklahoma star was fed the rock 25 times as Houston played with a big lead and looked to salt away the game, parlaying those touches into 106 yards and a touchdown.

Mixon may not get 25 carries against the Chiefs since the Texans don’t figure to be playing from ahead the entire way, but he should get a sizable number regardless of the score. After all, the best defense against Patrick Mahomes and the KC offense is to keep the clock moving and keep Mahomes off the field for as long as possible. That means a Mixon-heavy game script would be wise for the visitors to employ. He has gotten at least 20 carries on 8 occasions this season; getting at least 16 on Saturday certainly shouldn’t be too much to ask.

BET +15.5 NOW WITH

Ricky Dimon

Player Receptions Pick

X. Worthy (KC) - Over 4.5 recs(-140)

Reasoning

Similar to Mixon, there were some ebbs and flows during Worthy’s regular season. However, a midseason slump gave way to a hot streak down the stretch that gives the rookie receiver a ton of momentum heading into the playoffs. He caught at least 5 balls in his last 5 games, including 8 against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 17. During that stretch, his target totals were 7, 6, 11, 11 and 9.

Rashee Rice’s absence combined with Travis Kelce no longer being the absolute focal point of the offense has led to Worthy getting a lot of looks from Mahomes. It’s also worth noting that Houston allowed the 7th-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers during the regular season. This has all the makings of another matchup in which Worthy finds success.

BET +4.5 NOW WITH

Ricky Dimon

Featured In

SGP

4:30 PM ETToday

Texans vs Chiefs Same Game Parlay

Parlay Pick

4:30 PM ETToday

NFL Divisional Round parlay

Parlay Pick

4:30 PM ETToday

Saturday's NFL Divisional Round parlay

Top Trends

Game Totals

The Chiefs' last 6 games against the Texans have gone Over the total.

Point Spread

The Chiefs have covered the spread in their last 3 games as a favorite.

Money Line

The Chiefs have won 4 of their last 5 home games against the Texans.

$200

Bet $5, Get $200 Instantly!

Bet $5 on any sports market and get $200 in bonus bets instantly

Gambling Problem? Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY), If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (CO/IL/IN/LA/MD/MI/NJ/PA/TN/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (KS), 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), or 1-888-532-3500 (VA). 21+ (18+ WY). Physically present in AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/KS/LA(select parishes)/MD/MI/NJ/NY/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Void in OH/ONT. Eligibility restrictions apply. Valid 1 per new customer. Min. $5 deposit. Min. $5 bet. $200 issued as bonus bets that expire 7 days (168 hours) after being awarded. See terms at sportsbook.draftkings.com.

$200

Bet $5, Get $200 Instantly!

Bet $5 on any sports market and get $200 instantly

$200

Bet $5, Get $200 Instantly!

$200

Bet $5, Get $200 Instantly!

Bet $5 on any sports market and get $200 in bonus bets instantly

Must be 21+. Gambling Problem? If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537). See terms at sportsbook.draftkings.com.

Coins

Get up to 1,570,000 Gold Coins + 45 FREE Sweeps Coins upon signup

You’ll get a 1,570,000 Gold Coins + 45 free Sweeps Coins upon signup

Start making bets with the at the Sportzino Social Sportsbook & Casino

Get up to 1,570,000 Gold Coins + 45 FREE Sweeps Coins upon signup

Coins

Get up to 1,570,000 Gold Coins + 45 FREE Sweeps Coins upon signup

You’ll get a 1,570,000 Gold Coins + 45 free Sweeps Coins upon signup

Start making bets with the at the Sportzino Social Sportsbook & Casino

Get up to 1,570,000 Gold Coins + 45 FREE Sweeps Coins upon signup