Houston Texans

Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 12/21/24

Arrowhead StadiumNBC
Texans
Texans
Today
Chiefs
Chiefs
LWLWW
Last 5
LWWWW
9-5Record13-1
6-8-0ATS Record5-8-1
4-10O/U Record6-8

Vote on who will cover the spread!

Kansas City Chiefs

Texans vs Chiefs Pickswise Expert Predictions

Houston Texans
NFL
Kansas City Chiefs
Point Spread Pick
KC Chiefs +2.0(-110)HOU Texans @ KC Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes is unlikely to suit up for this matchup with the Texans but the Chiefs should still be able to secure the victory as a home underdog. Mahomes injured his ankle against the Browns last week which means that Carson Wentz is now likely to get the start for Kansas City. Wentz completed both of his passes for 20 yards in that Cleveland game and the former #2 overall pick is more than capable of leading the Chiefs to get the win. Despite holding a 9-5 record, the Texans have not been all that convincing recently. They are 3-3 in their last 6 games with defeats to the lowly Jets and Titans in there, and much of that is down to their offensive line struggling to protect CJ Stroud (Houston has allowed the 5th-most sacks in the league).

Despite Mahomes’ injury, what has really driven the Chiefs to being 13-1 this season has been their defense, and they should feast on Stroud. Kansas City has allowed the 7th-fewest passing yards per attempt and the 11th-fewest passing touchdowns. They have also held running backs to the 2nd-fewest yards per carry (3.9) and could have success shutting down Joe Mixon, especially after his disappointing performance last week where he had 12 carries for just 23 yards. Losing Mahomes is no doubt a big blow for KC, but Andy Reid is a terrific game manager and still has plenty of talent at his disposal. In front of a raucous Arrowhead crowd, I’m happy to take the Chiefs as a rare home underdog. It’s also worth grabbing the extra couple of points as insurance too.

Texans vs Chiefs prediction: Chiefs +2 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 1.5.

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Andrew Wilsher Managing Editor of Pickswise
Andrew Wilsher
Houston Texans
NFL
Kansas City Chiefs
Game Totals Pick
Under 40.0(-110)HOU Texans @ KC Chiefs

The Under also looks to be the right side to be on for our second Texans vs Chiefs pick. As mentioned already, this Chiefs defense has been tremendous all season long and is the reason behind their 13-1 record. At Arrowhead, Kansas City has held its last 3 opponents to 14, 14 and 17 points, and should be able to keep Houston in check. The Texans’ offense ranks in the bottom half of the league in passing yards per attempt rushing yards per carry, and in his last 8 games CJ Stroud has thrown just 7 touchdown passes.

The Kansas City offense has struggled all season to put points on the board, and is one of only a couple of teams that is yet to score 30 points in a game. It’s fair to expect that Carson Wentz won’t be able to end that run if Patrick Mahomes has been unable to. Plus, the Texans boast the 2nd-most interceptions (19) this season so Andy Reid could look to keep the ball in the hands of Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt, which would keep the clock ticking. This number feels low but may not be low enough, giving the Under some appeal.

Texans vs Chiefs prediction: Under 40 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Andrew Wilsher Managing Editor of Pickswise
Andrew Wilsher
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Andrew Wilsher

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Managing Editor of Pickswise. Born and raised in jolly old London, England, with an undying love for the NFL, NBA, soccer and horse racing. A big-time sports bettor who loves futures markets and backing underdogs. Long-suffering New York Jets fan. For Andrew Wilsher media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.
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Same Game Parlay

Alternate Point Spread
KC Chiefs -5.5
Anytime Touchdown Scorer
D. Hopkins (KC) to score a TD
Anytime Touchdown Scorer
J. Mixon (HOU) to score a TD

Kansas City Chiefs -5.5 alternate spread over Houston Texans (+126)

With Mahomes having made a surprisingly quick recovery from a sprained ankle, the Chiefs should be in good shape to get the job done on Saturday. They are 13-1 but have not yet wrapped up home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs, so they will be extremely motivated to maintain their winning ways. The Texans (9-5) have already clinched the AFC South title and have no chance of getting the #1 seed and a first-round bye. They will still be trying to win, of course, but it’s not as if this team is desperate for a W. Houston isn’t playing particularly well right now, either. It is 3-3 in its past 6 outings, a stretch that includes losses to the lowly New York Jets and Tennessee Titans. C.J. Stroud has taken a bit of a step back this season – largely due to a lack of protection from his offensive line – and improvement is unlikely to come against Chris Jones and a dangerous KC defense. I’ll back the Chiefs to win by at least a touchdown.

DeAndre Hopkins to score a touchdown (+230)

DeAndre Hopkins has scored 5 touchdowns this season and – unsurprisingly – has been especially productive since joining forces with Mahomes and the Chiefs prior to the trade deadline. The 32-year-old has delivered 4 of his 5 TDs for his new team, including a multi-touchdown performance during a victory over the NFC South-leading Tampa Bay Buccaneers last month. Hopkins now faces a Houston defense that has allowed 27 passing TDs this year (tied for the most in the entire NFL) compared to just 7 on the ground. This is a great opportunity for the Clemson product – especially at +230 odds.

Joe Mixon to score a touchdown (-125)

This is also a favorable matchup for Mixon. The Chiefs’ defense is solid against the pass, having surrendered only 6.9 yards per attempt and 18 touchdowns. It is true that Kansas City defends the run pretty well, too, but it has allowed a rushing touchdown in each of the last 2 weeks. Now head coach Andy Reid’s outfit has the task of containing Mixon, who has racked up 12 TDs in 2024 – 11 rushing and 1 receiving. The former Oklahoma standout has found the end zone 10 times in the past 9 contests and has every reason to continue his hot streak.

Ricky Dimon
Top Trends
Point Spread

The Chiefs have covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog.

Game Totals

The Under is 4-1 in the Texans' last 5 matchups against AFC teams.

Money Line

The Chiefs have won 9 of their last 10 home games.

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Gambling Problem? Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY), If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (CO/IL/IN/LA/MD/MI/NJ/PA/TN/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (KS), 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), or 1-888-532-3500 (VA). 21+ (18+ WY). Physically present in AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/KS/LA(select parishes)/MD/MI/NJ/NY/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Void in OH/ONT. Eligibility restrictions apply. Valid 1 per new customer. Min. $5 deposit. Min. $5 bet. $200 issued as bonus bets that expire 7 days (168 hours) after being awarded. See terms at sportsbook.draftkings.com.

Caesars Sportsbook

$1,000

$1,000 First Bet on Caesars

Sign up for a new Caesars Sportsbook account and Place your 1st wager of $10 or more

Place your first wager up to $1,000

If the bet losses, earn a a one-time Bonus Bettoken equal to the qualifying wager

21+. New users and first wager only. See Caesars.com/promos for full terms. Know When To Stop Before You Start.® Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. MA: CALL 1-800-327-5050 NY: Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369)

bet365

$1,000

Bet $5 and Get $150 in Bonus Bets OR $1,000 Back If Your First Bet Loses

Register for a new bet365 account

Place $5+ and get $150 in bonus bets - no matter if your bet wins or loses

OR $1,000 back in bonus bets if your first bet loses

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. 21+. Physically present in OH, CO, NJ, VA, IA, KY, LA, AZ, IN. Eligibility restrictions apply. Subject to regulatory licensing requirements. Opt-in req. Valid 1 per customer. Deposit required. Paid in Bonus Bets. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. New Customers only. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply

Underdog Fantasy

$1,000

First Time Deposit Offer up to $1,000 in Bonus Cash

Sign up for a new account with Underdog Fantasy

Make your first deposit up to $1,000

Get a 100% deposit match, and new users can get up to $1,000 in bonus cash on their first deposit

Must be 21+ to play. Terms & conditions apply

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