Houston Texans vs Dallas Cowboys Prediction, Odds and MNF Picks for Monday, 11/18/24
WLWLL | Last 5 | WLLLL |
6-4 | Record | 3-6 |
4-6-0 | ATS Record | 2-7-0 |
2-8 | O/U Record | 4-5 |
Texans vs Cowboys Pickswise Expert Predictions
We hate to blow the lead, but it’s hard to imagine trusting the Dallas Cowboys in their current state. The Boys just took another hit this week, learning that Dak’s injury is a season-ender. Meanwhile, they’re 3-6 and the remaining schedule is no cakewalk. Chances are slim that Dallas will be able to accomplish anything meaningful this season, a reality that owner Jerry Jones and players have owned up to on podcasts and in interviews. In short, the culture must be gloomy in Jerry World right now, and there simply isn’t much that’s positive. If we wanted to get real cute, we could consider that Mike McCarthy’s job is potentially on the line, or that the “battle of Texas” ignites some inherent pride in their organization. Even if both intangibles give the Boys a boost of motivation, we’re inclined to believe it won’t matter.
The Houston Texans might not be in the best of spirits right now, either, but hope is certainly much higher. Houston lost a tough battle last week, taking an assertive early lead against Detroit only to sputter in the second half. The Texans’ offensive line has been a problem, allowing 12 sacks over the last 2 weeks and still at the bottom of most pass-protection metrics, but we’re not so worried about that in this matchup. Dallas’ sack rate has dropped dramatically, earning only 9 in their last 4 contests. The return of Micah Parsons in his second game back could bring added pressure, but Dallas’ poor run defense (31st in opponent rushing yards allowed per game – 152) is an advantage for a Houston squad that would prefer to run their offense through Joe Mixon. Mixon has been quiet in recent weeks since the Texans played from behind more often, whereas this qualifies as a workhorse spot.
On the other side, matchups are even more lopsided. The Texans rank 2nd overall in defensive DVOA and they’re one of the premiere units against the pass (1st in opponent completion percentage, 3rd in opponent yards per pass). Dallas will start Cooper Rush, ignoring the echo chambers on social media who are shouting for a trial of Trey Lance (we disagree, please spare us). In any case, there isn’t much difference. The Dallas offense has unsurprisingly struggled without Prescott at the helm, gaining just 146 yards at home last week despite playing catchup all game against Philly. Houston’s defense is more formidable, they’re in Texas all month and they’re seeking redemption after a disappointing Week 10. I’m expecting a big win for Houston in this one.
Texans vs Cowboys prediction: Texans -7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 8.
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The Under is 11-7-1 for the Texans' and the Cowboys' games combined this season.
The Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
The Cowboys have won 4 of their last 5 home games against AFC teams.
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