HomeNFLNFL PredictionsHouston Texans vs Dallas Cowboys Prediction, Odds and MNF Picks

Houston Texans vs Dallas Cowboys Prediction, Odds and MNF Picks for Monday, 11/18/24

Updated: 4:33 AM ET Nov 14, 2024

AT&T StadiumESPN

Texans

8:15 PM ETMon Nov 18

Cowboys

WLWLL	Last 5	WLLLL
6-4	Record	3-6
4-6-0	ATS Record	2-7-0
2-8	O/U Record	4-5

Texans vs Cowboys Pickswise Expert Predictions

NFL

Point Spread Pick

HOU Texans -7.5(-110)HOU Texans @ DAL Cowboys

Reasoning

We hate to blow the lead, but it’s hard to imagine trusting the Dallas Cowboys in their current state. The Boys just took another hit this week, learning that Dak’s injury is a season-ender. Meanwhile, they’re 3-6 and the remaining schedule is no cakewalk. Chances are slim that Dallas will be able to accomplish anything meaningful this season, a reality that owner Jerry Jones and players have owned up to on podcasts and in interviews. In short, the culture must be gloomy in Jerry World right now, and there simply isn’t much that’s positive. If we wanted to get real cute, we could consider that Mike McCarthy’s job is potentially on the line, or that the “battle of Texas” ignites some inherent pride in their organization. Even if both intangibles give the Boys a boost of motivation, we’re inclined to believe it won’t matter.

The Houston Texans might not be in the best of spirits right now, either, but hope is certainly much higher. Houston lost a tough battle last week, taking an assertive early lead against Detroit only to sputter in the second half. The Texans’ offensive line has been a problem, allowing 12 sacks over the last 2 weeks and still at the bottom of most pass-protection metrics, but we’re not so worried about that in this matchup. Dallas’ sack rate has dropped dramatically, earning only 9 in their last 4 contests. The return of Micah Parsons in his second game back could bring added pressure, but Dallas’ poor run defense (31st in opponent rushing yards allowed per game – 152) is an advantage for a Houston squad that would prefer to run their offense through Joe Mixon. Mixon has been quiet in recent weeks since the Texans played from behind more often, whereas this qualifies as a workhorse spot.

On the other side, matchups are even more lopsided. The Texans rank 2nd overall in defensive DVOA and they’re one of the premiere units against the pass (1st in opponent completion percentage, 3rd in opponent yards per pass). Dallas will start Cooper Rush, ignoring the echo chambers on social media who are shouting for a trial of Trey Lance (we disagree, please spare us). In any case, there isn’t much difference. The Dallas offense has unsurprisingly struggled without Prescott at the helm, gaining just 146 yards at home last week despite playing catchup all game against Philly. Houston’s defense is more formidable, they’re in Texas all month and they’re seeking redemption after a disappointing Week 10. I’m expecting a big win for Houston in this one.

Texans vs Cowboys prediction: Texans -7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 8.

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Chris R. Farley

NFL

Game Totals Pick

Under 42.0(-110)HOU Texans @ DAL Cowboys

Reasoning

One can imagine that, if we could go back in time, no reasonable bettor would have predicted a Texans vs Cowboys game with a total this low. Perceptions preseason forecasted 2 of the most explosive offenses meeting in Week 11. While one is holding its own more than the other, neither operation is something to celebrate. Dallas already struggled, even with Dak Prescott under center, qualifying as a mediocre group with no run game and being forced to depend on Prescott far too much. Houston is also a mediocre group in most categories. Okay, they’re 5th in 4th-down conversion rate, but that’s about the only impressive metric.

The Texans have been riddled with injuries on their offensive line and to their wide receiver group. Fortunately, it’s possible that CJ Stroud might get Nico Collins back after a long layoff from injury. If they do, Collins elevates the explosiveness of their attack by a mile. He’s their QB’s favorite target and an attention-stealer in space — the cog every great offense needs. But even if Collins does return, we’re concerned that Houston could gain a margin on Dallas early, leaving an ugly late-game scenario with little production. The fact that this is a terrible matchup for the Dallas offense is the cherry on top. We expect the Texans to control this from start to finish, and that should mean plenty of ball control. We also don’t forecast Dallas getting beyond 10 points.

Texans vs Cowboys pick: Under 42 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 41.

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Chris R. Farley

Chris Farley

Show Bio

Chris is a writer for Pickswise who’s been handicapping the NFL since 2011. He began his public betting career as a betting writer, and has since become a contributing analyst for various betting sites and shows. He was a 5th place winner ($114k) in the 2021 NFL Circa Millions contest, and he owns his own sports betting podcast, Laying the Points. Chris approaches handicapping using psychosocial principles and nuanced market analysis. The NFL and NBA are his favorite and most profitable sports.

@FarleyBets

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