Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears Prediction, Odds and Picks for Sunday, 11/17/24

The Caleb Williams era has started slow in Chicago. The former #1 overall pick had high expectations for his rookie season, but not just because he was the first player drafted. Williams was drafted into a perfect situation for a rookie quarterback. He had a veteran running back in the backfield and two elite receivers as his top two options. Most rookie quarterbacks that get taken in the top five get drafted into a rebuilding system, like Drake Maye in New England. But that wasn’t the case for Williams who had DJ Moore and Keenen Allen. Still, Williams has struggled. The Bears are 4-5 after Week 10 and just lost their 3rd straight game which came from the hands of Maye and the Pats. That loss was the last straw for offensive coordinator Shane Waldron who was fired after the loss to New England. It’s clear there are a lot of internal problems happening right now in Chicago, and is another one whether Williams should be starting or not?

Green Bay had their bye in Week 10 which means they are as rested as they will be all season. Prior to the break, the Packers had their 4-game win streak snapped by the Lions in Week 9. Jordan Love and company still own a solid 6-3 record coming into this matchup and oddsmakers expect Green Bay to add another win to their record in Week 11. The Packers are 5.5 point favorites in Chicago on Sunday afternoon which shouldn’t be too surprising considering they have quietly had one of the better offenses in football this season. Love has been a big reason for the Packers averaging the 9th most points per game and have scored at least 24 points in 6 of their last 7 games. Until the Bears figure out their problems, it’s best to fade them. Take the Packers to cover this spread up to a touchdown.

Packers vs Bears prediction: Packers -5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -6.5

I’m still going to lean towards the over even with Chicago’s offensive struggles. Admittedly, I’m not expecting the Bears to contribute towards the over too much. If Williams can get at least 10 points then I think the over is a good position to win. That’s because the Packers offense has been fantastic lately and should be able to provide most of the points towards the over. Green Bay is averaging over 25 points per game and has surpassed 24 points in 6 of their last 7 games. The only time the Packers failed to reach 24 points in that span was in Week 9 against an elite Lions defense, but Josh Jacobs still ran for 95 yards and Jayden Reed had over 100 receiving yards. In short, the Packers were still able to find success on offense.

The Waldron era is over in Chicago and the Thomas Brown era is just getting started. Maybe that could provide an immediate boost to the offense? Who knows, only time will tell. But I do think there will be a bit of a spark with the Bears offense now that Waldron is gone. Plus, the Packers defense has allowed 22 or more points in all 3 of their most recent games. I understand that oddsmakers aren’t expecting much from Williams, but I’m taking the risk that he’ll be better under Brown.

Packers vs Bears prediction: Over 40 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.