Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Sunday, 11/03/24
WWWWW | Last 5 | LWWWW |
| 6-1 | Record | 6-2 |
| 6-1-0 | ATS Record | 4-4-0 |
| 4-3 | O/U Record | 4-4 |
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The Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers face off this Sunday in a pivotal NFC North matchup with serious division implications. The Lions have a slim lead in the NFC North and are winners of 5 straight, but the Packers are behind them and riding a 4-game winning streak themselves. The biggest storyline entering this week will be the status of Packers QB Jordan Love after the play-caller suffered a groin injury in Week 8, but Adam Schefter reported that he expects Love to play, and Green Bay head coach Matt LaFleur stated that Love is pushing to play on Sunday, even if he doesn’t practice all week.
Detroit has been an absolute wagon during this 5-game winning streak, as they’ve gone 5-0 ATS and are putting up 38.4 ppg. However, it’s worth noting that the combined record of the 5 teams they’ve played during this stretch is 17-20. Additionally, the Vikings are the only team they’ve played this season that currently has a winning record, and they won that game by just 2 points, as it came down to a game-winning field goal. Detroit has done a great job at limiting opponents’ scoring (19.1 ppg — 8th in the NFL), which has mainly been due to their red-zone defense (9th in the NFL), but there are some glaring holes in their secondary (247.6 passing yards allowed per game — 27th in the NFL). I expect Love to take advantage of their passing defense, and the Packers score a TD on 64.3% of red-zone drives at Lambeau Field this year (11th in the NFL).
While Love’s status is worth monitoring leading up to kickoff, I plan to back Green Bay with or without their starting QB. Backup QB Malik Willis is 2-0 when filling in for Love this season, and LaFleur is notorious for his ATS record as an underdog. Since taking over the Packers, he has gone 22-10 ATS as an underdog overall and 17-4 ATS as an underdog of 3+ points. Combine this with the fact that Jared Goff historically struggles when playing outdoors (38% more interceptions, 10% lower passer rating and 18% fewer touchdowns per attempt per game), and you have a perfect opportunity to back the home team with the points this Sunday at Lambeau.
Lions vs Packers prediction: Green Bay +3.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable down to +3.
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Lions vs Packers Pickswise Expert Predictions
Luke Lindholm
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Model projections coming soon
The Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
The Packers have won 4 of their last 5 games as a home underdog.
The Over is 4-1 in the Lions' last 5 divisional matchups.
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