HomeNFLNFL PredictionsDenver Broncos vs New Orleans Saints Prediction, Odds and TNF Picks

Denver Broncos vs New Orleans Saints Prediction, Odds and TNF Picks for Tomorrow, 10/17/24

Updated: 6:23 AM ET Oct 15, 2024

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Broncos

8:15 PM ETTomorrow

Saints

LWWWL	Last 5	WLLLL
3-3	Record	2-4
4-2-0	ATS Record	3-3-0
3-3	O/U Record	4-2

Broncos vs Saints Pickswise Expert Predictions

NFL

Point Spread Pick

NO Saints +1.5(-110)DEN Broncos @ NO Saints

Reasoning

The Broncos mostly looked awful on offense on Sunday, gaining just 63 total yards leading into the 4th quarter. An interception on their third play of the game and 2 first-half turnovers didn’t help. Coming off a bye week, Jim Harbaugh had his Chargers poised and firing on all cylinders defensively, something the anemic Broncos’ offense looked unprepared to fend off. And while they looked better in the fourth quarter (233 yards, 16 points), it’s hard to have too much faith in the Denver offense, especially on the road and on a short week.

The Saints’ season is quickly devolving. Opening up 2-0 with some of the more impressive victories in September, it’s been one head-scratching loss after another for Dennis Allen and his roster. Injuries are also starting to add up, too: Derek Carr, Taysom Hill, and now Chris Olave and Tyrann Mathieu. The good news is that New Orleans has plenty of easy scheduling spots left in this year’s campaign, so there’s still time to turn things around, but a 51-27 drubbing from Tampa means they have much to correct. On Thursday they’ll face their former coach, Sean Payton, an intangible that probably matters more to the Saints’ organization than it does to the former Super Bowl-winning play-caller, who left by his own accord.

Oddsmakers quickly shifted the opening spread from Saints -2.5 to where it sits now at Saints +1.5, but now’s the time to look in the other direction. Their starting QB and now their best wide receiver are both out, which isn’t great, but New Orleans still has considerably more talent on offense. Alvin Kamara and an above-average offensive line won’t have it easy against a Broncos rush defense that’s only allowing 4 yards per carry, but the Chargers proved that a sustained ground attack might be the key to throwing off Denver’s stingy resistance. Reports suggest that x-factor Taysom Hill could return to TNF, too, which gives Klint Kubiak and his offense an intangible that’s hard for any defense to prepare for.

The final part of this handicap and arguably the most important aspect for New Orleans is that Spencer Rattler actually looked pretty darn good against the Bucs. Talking heads might tell you differently (probably because they’re not re-watching the game), but Rattler made good decisions and was very efficient for the first 3 quarters. When the Saints started to trail by a big deficit, he made some errant throws and made more mistakes. Most rookies endure these lessons, but we mostly liked what we saw. Let’s take the Saints, and it’s worth grabbing the point on the spread as a little extra insurance.

Broncos vs Saints prediction: Saints +1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -1.

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Chris R. Farley

NFL

Game Totals Pick

Over 37.0(-110)DEN Broncos @ NO Saints

Reasoning

Right there with Jets vs Steelers as one of the lowest totals of Week 7, this opening number hasn’t budged. Oddsmakers and bettors are expecting a low-scoring battle between 2 struggling defenses, but we project this game going differently for several reasons. The good news for Broncos fans is that although it was mostly in garbage time and they only gained 63 yards through the first 3 quarters, Bo Nix and his colleagues finally caught fire in the final 15 minutes. Nix led the Broncos on 3 straight scoring drives, including 2 long touchdown marches down the field, to put up a quick 233 yards and 16 points. A failed onside kick ended the contest, but at least Denver can build off that momentum on a short week.

Plus, it’s not like they’re facing an elite defense on Thursday. The perception that the Saints have a top-tier defense is mostly propaganda at this point. Injuries are a big part of that, too. An already hobbling New Orleans’ defense permitted 51 points and an insane 594 yards to Tampa Bay on Sunday, a result that led to a 24-point win for their division rival. Entering Week 7, the Saints are the worst team in the NFL in yards allowed per game (395.8), and other than a high interception rate (they pick off opposing throwers on 4.52% of plays), virtually all of their defensive marks are either bottom-10 or bottom-5 rankings. Making matters even worse, their veteran safety Tyrann Mathieu left their Week 6 game with a wrist injury, making him doubtful for Thursday.

New Orleans should get Taysom Hill back, the Jenga piece that’s enabled a 65% win percentage when the QB/FB/TE is active, and we didn’t hate everything we saw from Spencer Rattler. It was his first NFL start, and despite 2 interceptions, he threw some nice balls and didn’t look overwhelmed by an aggressive Tampa defense. Their offense will likely be without their best receiver, Chris Olave (concussion), but the Saints need to get back in the win column and we expect a better game plan from new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak. Denver’s defense has been good, but the Chargers ran it down their throat on Sunday, a recipe that the Saints’ above-average offensive line can take advantage of. This number feels too low.

Broncos vs Saints pick: Over 37 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 37.5.

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Chris R. Farley

Chris Farley

Show Bio

Chris is a writer for Pickswise who’s been handicapping the NFL since 2011. He began his public betting career as a betting writer, and has since become a contributing analyst for various betting sites and shows. He was a 5th place winner ($114k) in the 2021 NFL Circa Millions contest, and he owns his own sports betting podcast, Laying the Points. Chris approaches handicapping using psychosocial principles and nuanced market analysis. The NFL and NBA are his favorite and most profitable sports.

@FarleyBets