HomeNFLNFL PredictionsDenver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers Prediction, Odds and TNF Picks

Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers Prediction, Odds and TNF Picks for Today, 12/19/24

Updated: 6:05 AM ET Dec 17, 2024

SoFi StadiumAmazon Prime Video

Broncos

8:15 PM ETToday

Chargers

LWWWW	Last 5	WLWLL
9-5	Record	8-6
11-3-0	ATS Record	9-4-1
8-6	O/U Record	5-9

Vote on who will cover the spread!

Broncos vs Chargers Pickswise Expert Predictions

NFL

Point Spread Pick

LA Chargers -3.0(-110)DEN Broncos @ LA Chargers

Reasoning

The Broncos and Chargers had far different experiences in Week 15, which could have huge implications in this contest. This is also a pivotal matchup for the postseason. Since Denver won and LA lost on Sunday, the Broncos surpassed the Chargers in the AFC playoff race, with both teams entering as wild cards if it began next week. That means that if the Chargers, who already beat the Broncos once, can sweep their rival this season, they’ll own a tiebreaker advantage in the AFC standings.

The Chargers had a game to forget on Sunday. Tampa Bay rolled into SoFi Stadium, intent on taking over first place in the NFC South, and experienced a ton of success against one of the NFL’s statistically best defenses. Tampa had a fantastic offensive performance, scoring 40 points and earning 24 first downs along with a whopping 506 total yards. All game, Jim Harbaugh’s vaunted defense had no answer for Baker Mayfield and his colleagues, who did whatever they wanted to the home team. Even worse, the Bolts only gained 208 yards, by far their worst overall performance of the season. It’s the kind of butt-kicking that humbles a franchise and one that could certainly motivate the entire roster for a better showing on Thursday Night Football.

The Broncos won big on Sunday but most of it was because of the Colts’ mistakes. In a wild contest that featured 8 turnovers (5 by Indianapolis alone), the Broncos took advantage of terrible gaffes by the Colts, like Jonathan Taylor’s “fumble” right before scoring a touchdown, tossing the ball out before he got over the plane and giving it right back to Denver. The Broncos were actually outgained 18-13 in first downs and 310-193 in total yards, yet they still won 31-13. We like that for the Chargers. Jim Harbaugh’s programs are known for their discipline and professionalism, and we expect a big response at home on TNF. They can also defend much better against a Denver offense that’s not nearly as explosive as Tampa – 23rd in yards per play (5.1). This is a humble line for a team that’s been very consistent up until Week 15 and has a much better matchup.

Broncos vs Chargers prediction: Chargers -3 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Chris R. Farley

NFL

Game Totals Pick

Under 42.5(-110)DEN Broncos @ LA Chargers

Reasoning

The Broncos and Chargers’ second clash of the season is a tough one to predict from a spread perspective, but not so much on the total. Both defenses are primed for positive regression after some below-average performances the last few weeks, and it helps that this is a divisional battle with decades of rivalry games in their past.

The Chargers had the biggest recent stumble, allowing 40 points and over 500 yards to the Bucs. For weeks prior, their defense rarely capitulated, limiting opposing offenses to 20 points or less in 8 of 10 previous contests. Jim Harbaugh is one of football’s brightest defensive minds and a great motivator. With playoff chances on the line, we simply can’t imagine the Broncos, who average just 311 yards per game (22nd), to produce as effectively as Tampa did. We should also consider that the Chargers’ Week 15 contest came after a brutal stretch of 3 games in 14 days, and it was also preceded by an emotional loss against the Chiefs — a letdown was bound to happen. We trust Harbaugh’s boy will look different on Thursday, even with a rather banged-up roster.

On the other side, Denver’s defense has been out of sync, too. Even though they won on Sunday, Indianapolis moved the ball and outgained the home team by margin. The Browns, who couldn’t do anything against Kansas City on Sunday, scored 32 points and gained over 500 yards at Denver in Week 13 before their bye. But, like LAC, this week Denver is facing an offense that’s not explosive, earning just 5.2 yards per play (18th). We have this much closer to 40, and would not be surprised if it was 37 points or less, meaning the Under has plenty of appeal.

Broncos vs Chargers pick: Under 42.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Chris R. Farley

Chris Farley

Show Bio

Chris is a writer for Pickswise who’s been handicapping the NFL since 2011. He began his public betting career as a betting writer, and has since become a contributing analyst for various betting sites and shows. He was a 5th place winner ($114k) in the 2021 NFL Circa Millions contest, and he owns his own sports betting podcast, Laying the Points. Chris approaches handicapping using psychosocial principles and nuanced market analysis. The NFL and NBA are his favorite and most profitable sports.

@FarleyBets

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