Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 11/24/24

We have a division-rivalry showdown in the AFC West between 2 teams trending in opposite directions as the Las Vegas Raiders get ready to host the Denver Broncos. The Raiders are circling the drain and it looks like head coach Antonio Pierce may only get one full season at the helm, while the Broncos are ascending and are coming off a blowout win over the Falcons. But as the old adage goes, the name of this game is buy low and sell high — and that’s exactly what we’re going to do here. The Broncos have been reasonably impressive lately, but there’s no way I could lay this many points with them on the road.

Right before the win over Atlanta, Denver had lost back-to-back games in which failed to score more than 14 points. And their only 2 other wins since October 6 came against the Saints with Spencer Rattler and against the Panthers, 2 of the worst teams in the league. And their last 2 wins before that were against the Raiders and the Jets by a single point. I’m still not sold on Bo Nix, and the Raiders should muster their best effort here at home against a division opponent. Las Vegas has struggled — it’s true. However, it has also faced an incredibly tough schedule of late. The Raiders’ last 5 games have come against the Steelers, Rams, Chiefs, Bengals and Dolphins — with 3 of those 5 coming on the road.

Gardner Minshew has quietly played pretty well the last 3 weeks since reclaiming his starting job over Aidan O’Connell. He has 4 touchdowns with only 1 interception over his last 3. Denver’s defense also struggles to cover tight ends, as Vance Joseph units tend to do, and the Raiders have the best tight end in the league right now in Brock Bowers. That will be something to watch, and I think the Raiders’ passing game will be able to do just enough to keep this one within the number.

Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders prediction: Raiders +6 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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I also like the under in what should be a low-scoring affair. There is no love lost between these teams that are super familiar with one another, and they just played a handful of weeks ago. We have got a rookie quarterback on one side and Gardner Minshew on the other, so I’m not expecting a shootout. Bo Nix has made strides from his first couple of starts, but he’s still not great when the circumstances around him aren’t perfect. Before the explosion last week against Atlanta, Denver’s offense had failed to top 14 points in back-to-back games.

The Raiders, on the other hand, have very few weapons after trading away Davante Adams — and Brock Bowers can’t do it all by himself. Las Vegas has only scored more than 20 points once in its last 7 games, so I think the Broncos will be pretty conservative on offense knowing they can likely rely on their defense. Last week Denver held Atlanta’s usually productive offense to just 6 points and they made Kirk Cousins struggle while shutting down Bijan Robinson on the ground.

Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders prediction: Under 41 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 40.

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