Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders Prediction, Odds and Picks for Sunday, 11/24/24

We’ve got a classic rivalry showdown here in the NFC East this week as the Washington Commanders get ready to host the Dallas Cowboys. A couple years ago it would’ve sounded crazy to say the Commanders would be one of the toast’s of the league while the Cowboys would be a laughingstock, but that’s where we’re at. Dallas is in free-fall in the wake of Dak Prescott’s injury, and they’re coming off a blowout loss at home to the Texans.

This is a plug your nose type of bet, but I think there’s value in buying low on the Cowboys here. We’re getting them at their absolute rock bottom price in the market after the spanking on national TV at the hands of Houston that everyone saw, but it’s important not to overreact. This is a division game that’s going to be hard fought, and getting double digits is too good of an opportunity to pass up. I also just think Washington is a bit overrated. The Commanders are 3-3 in their last 6, and that figure gets worse when you dig into it. Their three wins in that span?

They came against the Giants, Panthers and Bears. New York and Carolina might be the two worst teams in the league, and Chicago hasn’t looked much better recently. And even the Bears they only beat on a last second walk off Hail Mary. Jayden Daniels has quietly come back down to earth after his red hot start, and over his last two games he has just one touchdown while averaging less than 6 yards per attempt. Even against the G-Men the Commanders only managed to win by 5 in a game that came down to the wire where they almost choked to Daniel Jones, so I don’t see any reason to feel good about laying double digits with them here. The Cowboys have also played much better on the road this year, as they’re 0-5 at home but 3-2 on the road.

Cowboys +10 available at publishing.

The under also makes a lot of sense in this spot. With Dak Prescott out of the lineup, Dallas’ offense has an extremely low floor. The Cowboys have scored a combined 16 points in Cooper Rush’s two starts so far, and last week almost all of his stats came in garbage time with the game out of hand. Rush has been dreadful, and the team has no ground game to speak of. On the flip side, their defense has started to get a lot healthier, with Micah Parsons and others returning to the lineup. The Commanders are in a similar boat, as their defense has trended up from the beginning of the year while their offense has trended down.

Jayden Daniels has struggled a bit lately, and looks like he might not be 100 percent. Over his last two games he has just 393 yards on 66 attempts (5.9 YPA), and he only has one touchdown in that span. He’s also rushed for just 23 yards in that span, so his production on the ground has dropped off a cliff as well. A total in the mid 40s feels a little steep for a division game featuring Cooper Rush one on side and a banged up and struggling rookie on the other.

Under 45 available at publishing.