Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants Prediction, Odds and Picks for Thursday, 09/26/24

Updated: 9:52 AM ET Sep 26, 2024

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Cowboys

8:15 PM ETYesterday

Giants

WLWLL	Last 5	LWLLW
1-2	Record	1-2
1-2-0	ATS Record	1-2-0
3-0	O/U Record	0-3

Best Bets

NFL

Game Totals PickBest Bet

Over 45.0(-110)DAL Cowboys @ NY Giants

Reasoning

Is positive regression coming for Dallas’ defense? We think not. Getting crushed for 2 straight weeks would be tough for any program to handle, let alone with the prowess they expect in Texas. Mike Zimmer’s defense looks lost out there, and a pressurized locker room probably won’t help. They rank last in every rushing-defense category that matters, and they allow a 3rd-worst 29.7 ppg. Only the Rams and Panthers have been more pitiful.

The Giants’ defense looked much improved in Week 3, but that was against an unsure Deshaun Watson and Cleveland’s limping offensive line. Still, without much of a run game to speak of (3.6 yards per carry, 3rd-worst), the Cowboys are #1 in the NFL in pass attempts per game (41), a metric that’s perhaps inflated since they’ve played from behind for 2 straight contests but also a pattern that’s unlikely to change. The saving grace of the Dallas offense remains with guys like CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson, 2 of the best at their position in football, and Dak Prescott has been extremely comfortable at MetLife Stadium. The last time Dak lost there? December 11, 2016. In the 6 other games he’s played at the Meadowlands, Dak and his teammates averaged 31 ppg. The Cowboys won’t be happy after what went down in Week 3, and we like more points to be the result. Their defense should aid in that, too.

Cowboys vs Giants best bet: Over 45 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 46.

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Chris R. Farley

Cowboys vs Giants Pickswise Expert Predictions

NFL

Point Spread Pick

NY Giants +5.5(-110)DAL Cowboys @ NY Giants

Reasoning

The Giants finally impressed this past Sunday. New York’s front seven had a breakout game, boasting 8 sacks against an injured Cleveland offensive line and an aggressive resistance held the Browns to a lowly 148 yards on their home turf. On the other side of the ball, Daniel Jones had a clean showing (24/34, 236 yards, 2 TDs), taking advantage of Brian Daboll’s masterful game plan where over 80% of Jones’ production came from the short-passing game. Malik Nabers, who’s already playing like a bonafide superstar, had another great performance, snagging 8 balls and catching both of Jones’ TD throws. New York’s run game wasn’t very effective early, but they still totaled 112 yards and dominated the time of possession. It was a good look for a Giants’ squad that seemed like a dumpster fire in their first 2 weeks.

Speaking of dumpster fires, the Dallas Cowboys took another big dip in our power ratings. Showing no ability to slow down Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, Mike Zimmer’s defense allowed a quick 21 points in the first half and 456 total yards by the game’s end. Remarkably, 274 of those permitted yards came on the ground. The Cowboys managed to stack up 211 yards and 19 points in 3 straight drives against a garbage-time Ravens’ defense, but it was too little, too late. Besides a big game from Jake Ferguson, the Cowboys looked disjointed, stunned and out-of-sorts. That’s not good on a short week and an upcoming 2-game road stretch.

Normally the Cowboys love these get-right spots against the Giants. Last year, Dallas beat New York 89-17 across the 2 meetings, and it’s been 6 straight losses for Big Blue against their rival. This one feels different, though. The Cowboys’ offensive line is starting to capitulate, and they’ll be facing a hyped-up Giants defense that pressured Deshaun Watson 19 times in Week 3. On the other side, Daboll is great at scheming short-field offense, which has been Dallas’ issue the last few weeks. The matchup and revenge factor scream Big Blue, so we’ll take a shot with the home underdog.

Cowboys vs Giants prediction: Giants +5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.5.

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Chris R. Farley

Chris Farley

Show Bio

Chris is a writer for Pickswise who’s been handicapping the NFL since 2011. He began his public betting career as a betting writer, and has since become a contributing analyst for various betting sites and shows. He was a 5th place winner ($114k) in the 2021 NFL Circa Millions contest, and he owns his own sports betting podcast, Laying the Points. Chris approaches handicapping using psychosocial principles and nuanced market analysis. The NFL and NBA are his favorite and most profitable sports.

@FarleyBets

Same Game Parlay

Game Totals

Over 45.5

Player Receiving Yards

W. Robinson (NYG) 50+ rec yds

Anytime Touchdown Scorer

W. Robinson (NYG) to score a TD

Reasoning

Over 45.5 (-105)

Two consecutive games represent a large enough sample size to lose faith in the Dallas defense. DC Mike Zimmer’s unit looks completely lost and it has spilled over into the locker room, complete with finger-pointing – albeit of the indirect variety. The Cowboys rank dead last league-wide in every rushing-defense category that matters and they allow 29.7 ppg (3rd-worst in the NFL). As for the Giants’ defense, it looked much improved in Week 3 – but that was against Deshaun Watson and an inept Cleveland Browns entourage. It’s unlikely that the G-Men will contain a Dallas offense that is #1 in the NFL in pass attempts per game (41). Dak Prescott certainly isn’t afraid to sling it around and he has 2 great weapons at his disposal in the form of CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson. Expect points aplenty.

Wan’Dale Robinson to record 50+ receiving yards (+200)

There is no secret as to how Dallas plans to go about attacking this contest from a defensive standpoint. It is going to stack the box and make New York move the ball through the air behind much-maligned quarterback Daniel Jones. And to whom will the Cowboys force Jones to target? Anyone but Malik Nabers! The Cowboys’ defense has looked poor so far this season, so it can’t stop everyone – but it will do everything in its power to stop Nabers. That means Wan’Dale Robinson could be in line for a huge performance. The 2022 second-round draft pick out of Kentucky is second on the team in receptions (15), second in targets (27) and second in receiving yards (123). He is coming off his best game of the season – 7 catches on 8 targets for 61 yards against Cleveland

Wan’Dale Robinson to score a touchdown (+390)

Robinson has a great chance to find the endzone, too. He has already scored once this year (Week 2 against the Washington Commanders) and can certainly victimize another NFC East opponent in Dallas. The Cowboys’ pass defense is in the middle of the pack in terms of yards and touchdowns allowed, so it is far from special. For all the criticism Jones gets, he has tossed 4 touchdown passes and zero interceptions over the past 2 outings. At +390, Robinson has stellar value to deliver a TD.

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Ricky Dimon

Pickswise Expert Prop Picks

Player Tackles & Assists Pick

E. Kendricks (DAL) - Over 8.5 tackles & assists(-120)

Reasoning

Kendricks is the middle linebacker for the Cowboys in this new-look Mike Zimmer defense that’s been god-awful against the run. Zimmer brought Kendricks over from their time together in Minnesota and in the stat sheet, he put up numbers. He’s 12th overall in total tackles in the league, and has 2 sacks and 1 interception in 3 games. He’s hit this number in 2 of 3 games so far. The reason I’m on it this week at 8.5 is the mobile QB factor from New York. Kendricks posted a season-high 12 tackles last week against the Ravens and Lamar Jackson. 3 of his 12 came against Lamar in the run game. It’s a tactic teams will use to neutralize the Micah Parsons/DeMarcus Lawrence pass rush. These planned runs in addition to Dallas being the worst rush defense in the NFL should give Kendricks enough opportunities to cruise past this number. 1u

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Bobby Stanley Jr. (PropHolliday)

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick

J. Ferguson (DAL) to score a TD(+220)

Reasoning

Last week’s loss to the Ravens was demoralizing for the Cowboys on the defensive side of the ball, but the passing game finally seemed to find a rhythm in the second half as Dallas mounted its comeback. Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson was often the #2 option for Dak Prescott through the air as the season wound down last year, and after coming back from injury to record 95 yards on 6 receptions in Week 3, Ferguson should be in a great position to succeed down by the red zone this week. It certainly helps matters that the Giants have been a bad defense against tight ends for what feels like years now, as New York is 28th in defensive DVOA against the position. This is a line that keeps sinking at a few other outlets, so let’s play the best available number on Ferguson to find the end zone while we still can.

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Caleb Wilfinger

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick

D. Singletary (NYG) to score a TD(+110)

Reasoning

The Cowboys’ defense has been the object of ridicule over the past couple of weeks, and for good reason. Dallas is getting shredded by the run over the first 3 weeks, as opponents are averaging 5.4 yards per carry against the Cowboys while rushing for a total of 8 touchdowns in that span. Just last week, we saw the Ravens completely displace the Dallas front time and again en route to a 274-yard rushing performance in which Baltimore averaged well over 6 yards per carry. And while the Giants’ ground game is nowhere near as dynamic as what the Ravens have, Devin Singletary has been playing well, racking up 160 yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground over the past couple of weeks. If the Giants continue to use Singletary to take the pressure off Daniel Jones against this Dallas pass rush, then the top running back in this game could certainly find the end zone for the third consecutive contest. Let’s take Singletary to score at home.

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Caleb Wilfinger

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8:15 PM ETYesterday

Cowboys vs Giants TNF Same Game Parlay

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Money Line

The Cowboys have won 13 of their last 14 games against the Giants.

Point Spread

The Cowboys have covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 matchups against divisional opponents.

Game Totals

All 3 Giants games this season have had 39 or fewer points.