Cleveland Browns vs New Orleans Saints Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 11/17/24

It’s not exactly a marquee matchup with the Cleveland Browns traveling to take on the New Orleans Saints, but that doesn’t mean we can’t find some opportunities for value. And in this one I think the value lies with the visiting Browns. The Saints rode a wave of adrenaline to an upset win over the Falcons last week after firing head coach Dennis Allen, and now is the time to sell high. It was a classic rally around the new interim coach kind of game, and I think they’ll come crashing back down to earth. While they were able to squeak out a win at home over a division rival, let’s not forget that right before that they had lost 7 games in a row.

And they only beat Atlanta by 3 points because Younghoe Koo uncharacteristically missed 3 field goals. It’s not like the Saints actually played well at all, and they got out-gained by the Falcons by more than 100 yards. The Browns are 1-1 since Jameis Winston took over for Deshaun Watson at quarterback, and while the loss was a lopsided one to the Chargers, the win was a huge upset over an elite Ravens team. Cleveland had its bye week following the loss to Los Angeles, so Winston has had extra time to get up to speed and head coach Kevin Stefanski has had extra time to scheme for a New Orleans defense that has been abysmal this season.

The Browns boast the much better defense and their pass rush should be able to get home against a terrible Saints offensive line. Even in their loss to the Chargers, the Browns were still able to sack Justin Herbert 6 times — and that was in a game where they were playing from behind. New Orleans has had one of the worst pass-blocking o-lines in the league, so I think Myles Garrett will make life miserable for Derek Carr.

Cleveland Browns vs New Orleans Saints prediction: Browns -1 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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I also think the over makes some sense in this spot. If you look at the final score from last week you’d see the Saints only gave up 17 points to the Falcons, but that number is misleading. Younghoe Koo missed 3 field goals in that one, and New Orleans gave up almost 500 yards of total offense. Kirk Cousins threw for more than 300 while averaging over 8 yards per attempt, and the Falcons rushed for 181 yards on 5.7 yards per carry. It’s not as if the Saints’ defense actually stepped up in the wake of firing Dennis Allen; they just got lucky. Right before that they had given up 23+ points in 6 straight games.

Even the lowly Carolina Panthers managed to score 23 on the Saints, so I don’t think the Browns will have too much trouble reaching that mark — especially since Cleveland just had its bye week for Jamies Winston and Kevin Stefanski to get more on the same page. In Winston’s first start in this offense, they scored 29 against an elite Ravens team. And this game is in a dome. The Saints’ secondary has routinely been torched, like when the Bucs scored 51 on them, so I think this one has sneaky shootout potential.

Browns vs Saints prediction: Over 44 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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