Cincinnati Bengals

Cincinnati Bengals vs Los Angeles Chargers Prediction, Odds and SNF Picks for Sunday, 11/17/24

SoFi StadiumNBC
Bengals
Bengals
Sun Nov 17
Chargers
Chargers
WWLWL
Last 5
WLWWW
4-6Record6-3
6-4-0ATS Record6-2-1
7-3O/U Record2-7
Los Angeles Chargers

Bengals vs Chargers Pickswise Expert Predictions

Cincinnati Bengals
NFL
Los Angeles Chargers
Point Spread Pick
LA Chargers -1.0(-120)CIN Bengals @ LA Chargers

One of Malcolm Gladwell’s most popular books, “Blink,” points out how gut instincts and impulses are actually well-informed reactions by your brain, not meaningless emotional triggers like we once thought. We bring this up because, when it comes to this clash, our first impulse was: “I don’t know what to do with this game.” Of course, after trudging through our handicapping process, we arrived at a conclusion, although it turns out our instinct was very spot-on.

More than any other factor, this matchup is complex because Joe Burrow hasn’t seen a pass defense as good as the Chargers, and the Chargers haven’t faced a quarterback as good as Joe Burrow. Some might contend the latter point (LA faced Patrick Mahomes in Week 4), but we all know the Chiefs’ offense isn’t as explosive this season. In any case, it’ll be a treat to see who “wins” when the Bengals’ offense is on the field. The Bolts’ defense has been fantastic, ranked #1 in points allowed per game (13.1) and points per play (0.222), and they rank in the top 5 in a slew of other categories (opponent third-down conversion rate, yards per pass and turnover margin). A complete 180 from what we saw the last few seasons, Jim Harbaugh has his boys playing aggressive and disciplined. 

On the other side, Burrow would be neck and neck with Lamar Jackson as an NFL MVP candidate if his team was having a better season overall. The former college football national champion is completing 69% of his passes and has thrown 24 TDs and only 4 INTs. This season, his chemistry with Ja’Marr Chase has been through the roof, resulting in 1st-place marks in receptions (66), reception yards (981), and reception TDs (10). Cincinnati should also get Tee Higgins back on Sunday night, which only adds to the intrigue of this battle.

The reality is that the result of this contest will probably be more based on what the Chargers’ offense can do, and we give them a clear advantage. While the Chargers are formidable offensively (12th in offensive DVOA), the Bengals have been dreadful on defense (27th in defensive DVOA), allowing 26.2 ppg (26th) and 347.5 ypg (23rd). Harbaugh’s unique approach is also new and unfamiliar to modern teams, making the matchup even more nuanced for Burrow, and the Chargers are at home – aka a long, long way from Ohio. This should be as close as the odds indicate but LA looks the right side to be on.

Bengals vs Chargers prediction: Chargers -1 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Chris R. Farley
Cincinnati Bengals
NFL
Los Angeles Chargers
Game Totals Pick
Over 47.0(-110)CIN Bengals @ LA Chargers

Just like the spread, the total is just as arduous to figure out. For example, take a look at the disparity in their over/under results: the Chargers are 7-2 to the under, while the Bengals are 7-3 to the over. Both make sense – LAC operates from a run-heavy system, top-6 in rush-play percentage and they certainly milk the clock (11th in time of possession), while preventing opposing offenses from doing much of anything when their foes have the ball. And the Bengals, despite their explosiveness on offense and Burrow’s terrific play this year, are constantly vulnerable because of their lack of defense, which results in very big scoreboards (their games average 53.2 ppg).

The total has moved dramatically since it opened at 43.5, now up to 47 at most sportsbooks. That’s an interesting spot for the number to settle, since “47” is among the most common totals in the NFL, and the adjustment speaks to where we were leaning with this wager. The Bengals are residually desperate, with conceivably no margin for error if they hope to make the playoffs with a 4-6 record heading into Week 11. That kind of pressure won’t affect Burrow, who’s as calm and collected as any thrower in the world, but it certainly doesn’t make us trust the Bengals’ defense. The Chargers’ offense is as healthy as it’s been all season and they’ve scored 26, 27 and 27 over the last 3 weeks, all against above-average defenses (New Orleans, Cleveland and Tennessee). Against Cincinnati’s porous resistance, their ceiling only gets higher.

On the other side, although we have to respect the Chargers’ defense and how stingy they’ve been all season, this is easily the best passing offense Jim Harbaugh’s group has seen, and Burrow has been an absolute surgeon lately (9 TDs, 1 INT and 679 passing yards over the last 2 weeks). It’s uncomfortable, but we can only look one way.

Bengals vs Chargers prediction: Over 47 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Chris R. Farley
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Chris Farley

Show Bio

Chris is a writer for Pickswise who’s been handicapping the NFL since 2011. He began his public betting career as a betting writer, and has since become a contributing analyst for various betting sites and shows. He was a 5th place winner ($114k) in the 2021 NFL Circa Millions contest, and he owns his own sports betting podcast, Laying the Points. Chris approaches handicapping using psychosocial principles and nuanced market analysis. The NFL and NBA are his favorite and most profitable sports.
Read more about Chris Farley
Top Trends
Point Spread

The Chargers are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games.

Game Totals

The Bengals' last 3 games have gone Over the total.

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The Bengals have won 3 of their last 5 games following a defeat.

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Gambling Problem? Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY), If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (CO/IL/IN/LA/MD/MI/NJ/PA/TN/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (KS), 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), or 1-888-532-3500 (VA). 21+ (18+ WY). Physically present in AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/KS/LA(select parishes)/MD/MI/NJ/NY/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Void in OH/ONT. Eligibility restrictions apply. Valid 1 per new customer. Min. $5 deposit. Min. $5 bet. $200 issued as bonus bets that expire 7 days (168 hours) after being awarded. See terms at sportsbook.draftkings.com.

Caesars Sportsbook

$1,000

$1,000 First Bet on Caesars

Sign up for a new Caesars Sportsbook account and Place your 1st wager of $10 or more

Place your first wager up to $1,000

If the bet losses, earn a a one-time Bonus Bettoken equal to the qualifying wager

21+. New users and first wager only. See Caesars.com/promos for full terms. Know When To Stop Before You Start.® Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. MA: CALL 1-800-327-5050 NY: Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369)

bet365

$1,000

Bet $5 and Get $150 in Bonus Bets OR $1,000 Back If Your First Bet Loses

Register for a new bet365 account

Place $5+ and get $150 in bonus bets - no matter if your bet wins or loses

OR $1,000 back in bonus bets if your first bet loses

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. 21+. Physically present in OH, CO, NJ, VA, IA, KY, LA, AZ, IN. Eligibility restrictions apply. Subject to regulatory licensing requirements. Opt-in req. Valid 1 per customer. Deposit required. Paid in Bonus Bets. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. New Customers only. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply

Underdog Fantasy

$1,000

First Time Deposit Offer up to $1,000 in Bonus Cash

Sign up for a new account with Underdog Fantasy

Make your first deposit up to $1,000

Get a 100% deposit match, and new users can get up to $1,000 in bonus cash on their first deposit

Must be 21+ to play. Terms & conditions apply

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