Cincinnati Bengals vs Los Angeles Chargers Prediction, Odds and SNF Picks for Sunday, 11/17/24
WWLWL | Last 5 | WLWWW |
| 4-6 | Record | 6-3 |
| 6-4-0 | ATS Record | 6-2-1 |
| 7-3 | O/U Record | 2-7 |
Bengals vs Chargers Pickswise Expert Predictions
One of Malcolm Gladwell’s most popular books, “Blink,” points out how gut instincts and impulses are actually well-informed reactions by your brain, not meaningless emotional triggers like we once thought. We bring this up because, when it comes to this clash, our first impulse was: “I don’t know what to do with this game.” Of course, after trudging through our handicapping process, we arrived at a conclusion, although it turns out our instinct was very spot-on.
More than any other factor, this matchup is complex because Joe Burrow hasn’t seen a pass defense as good as the Chargers, and the Chargers haven’t faced a quarterback as good as Joe Burrow. Some might contend the latter point (LA faced Patrick Mahomes in Week 4), but we all know the Chiefs’ offense isn’t as explosive this season. In any case, it’ll be a treat to see who “wins” when the Bengals’ offense is on the field. The Bolts’ defense has been fantastic, ranked #1 in points allowed per game (13.1) and points per play (0.222), and they rank in the top 5 in a slew of other categories (opponent third-down conversion rate, yards per pass and turnover margin). A complete 180 from what we saw the last few seasons, Jim Harbaugh has his boys playing aggressive and disciplined.
On the other side, Burrow would be neck and neck with Lamar Jackson as an NFL MVP candidate if his team was having a better season overall. The former college football national champion is completing 69% of his passes and has thrown 24 TDs and only 4 INTs. This season, his chemistry with Ja’Marr Chase has been through the roof, resulting in 1st-place marks in receptions (66), reception yards (981), and reception TDs (10). Cincinnati should also get Tee Higgins back on Sunday night, which only adds to the intrigue of this battle.
The reality is that the result of this contest will probably be more based on what the Chargers’ offense can do, and we give them a clear advantage. While the Chargers are formidable offensively (12th in offensive DVOA), the Bengals have been dreadful on defense (27th in defensive DVOA), allowing 26.2 ppg (26th) and 347.5 ypg (23rd). Harbaugh’s unique approach is also new and unfamiliar to modern teams, making the matchup even more nuanced for Burrow, and the Chargers are at home – aka a long, long way from Ohio. This should be as close as the odds indicate but LA looks the right side to be on.
Bengals vs Chargers prediction: Chargers -1 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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Chris Farley
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The Chargers are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games.
The Bengals' last 3 games have gone Over the total.
The Bengals have won 3 of their last 5 games following a defeat.
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