HomeNFLNFL PredictionsBuffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction, Odds and AFC Championship Game Picks

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction, Odds and AFC Championship Game Picks for Sunday, 01/26/25

Updated: 8:42 AM ET Jan 21, 2025

Arrowhead StadiumCBS

Bills

6:30 PM ETSun Jan 26

Chiefs

WWLWW	Last 5	WWWLW
13-4	Record	15-2
12-7-0	ATS Record	7-10-1
11-8	O/U Record	7-11

Vote on who will cover the spread!

Best Bets

NFL

Point Spread PickBest Bet

KC Chiefs -1.5(-115)BUF Bills @ KC Chiefs

Reasoning

In what promises to be another legendary matchup, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen will meet for the 4th time in the last 5 years of the AFC playoffs. In every one of the last 3 wars, the Chiefs have come out the victor, although it’s worth noting that their last 2 wins were extremely close (one required overtime, the other decided by just a field goal). With all that in mind, it’s not a mystery why the spread sits at a humble -1.5 in favor of the home team, a designation that suggests oddsmakers think that these 2 outfits are relatively even.

Of course, it’s very hard to measure the Kansas City Chiefs and their winning ways. Short-minded prognosticators will point towards fortunate penalties and lucky bounces as the reasons why KC just keeps succeeding, but we know better. The combination of Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes is second to none, a synergistic partnership that reflects the peak of championship form, especially in the game’s most pressurized moments. Yes, we know, it’s not always in the stats, but Mahomes tends to find a way when his team needs it, and so does his favorite target, Travis Kelce. Taylor Swift’s boyfriend had a mediocre season, especially compared to his previous standards, but one game into the postseason and he grabs 7 catches (on 8 targets) for 117 yards and a touchdown. If it wasn’t Kelce, it would have been someone else, and it’s not like they don’t have the talent. Isiah Pacheco, Hollywood Brown, rookie Xavier Worthy and the second-chance kid, Kareem Hunt, have all been game changers before. The KC defense was also ultra-impressive, sacking a feisty CJ Stroud 8 times and limiting Houston in the most integral moments. For example, the Texans were 1-3 in the red zone and scored just 2 points in the 4th quarter. At Arrowhead, we can’t remember the last time an offense exploded against the home team; it just doesn’t happen very often.

But if any team is ready to get by the Chiefs, it’s the Bills, and they already did it once this season. Back in Week 11, Buffalo executed a superior game plan against their rival, preventing Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense from ever launching into a big lead. Buffalo forced an interception on Kansas City’s very first drive, capitalizing on it for a quick touchdown lead, and later they forced another interception on Mahomes’ last drive, effectively ending the contest. Josh Allen was magnificent, finishing the match with 2 straight touchdown drives in the 4th quarter. Allen was responsible for 145 of those 153 combined yards, either by running or passing.

One was left wondering what would have happened if Mahomes never threw those 2 interceptions, and now he’ll have the chance to seek revenge at home. Our favorite bet on this game is teasing up Buffalo to +7.5 or +8, but Kansas City is at home and now they’re seeking “revenge,” however superficial it may be, from their loss earlier this season. They’re also seeking to be the first team in NFL history to win 3 straight Super Bowls; it doesn’t get more motivating than that. Mahomes and Reid don’t typically trip twice against the same program, and they own the better defense. As much as we’d like to see Buffalo in the big dance, we can’t bet with our hearts.

Bills vs Chiefs prediction: Chiefs -1.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 2.5.

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Chris R. Farley

Bills vs Chiefs Pickswise Expert Predictions

NFL

Game Totals Pick

Under 47.5(-110)BUF Bills @ KC Chiefs

Reasoning

Firstly, like the NFC Championship game, as of Tuesday it doesn’t look like weather will be an issue for Bills vs Chiefs. Make sure to keep paying attention to the weather, though, since we’ve seen forecasts turn on a dime. In any case, the table is set for a big offensive showcase, one might think, since these 2 programs have exclusively produced high-scoring battles in the recent past. Last January, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs outlasted the Bills at Orchard Park in the Divisional Round in a game that produced 48 first downs, 729 total yards and 51 points. Buffalo hosted and won against Kansas City in a rematch this season in Week 11, a battle that also produced 51 points, although production was a bit humbled (43 first downs, 625 total yards). In any case, many bettors will expect fireworks in the AFC Championship bout, if for no other reason than the caliber of the 2 quarterbacks involved.

We’re not as convinced. Playoff football is different, especially for veteran programs like the Bills and Chiefs, and we like their defenses to be the difference in this contest. Last week, Kansas City recorded a staggering 8 sacks on CJ Stroud. They also held the Texans to just 1-3 in the red zone, and the Houston offense gained just 18 first downs. Of course, many have lamented about the Chiefs’ offense, an operation that ranks as only a slightly above-average operation this season. They gained just 212 yards on Saturday, a metric that certainly doesn’t hurt the position we’re taking on this number.

On the other side, the Bills’ defense was just as impressive. Buffalo held Derrick Henry, Baltimore’s most destructive x-factor, to just 84 yards on the ground. Baltimore ended up gaining 416 yards, but Buffalo’s defense was opportunistic, forcing 3 turnovers and limiting Lamar Jackson and his teammates to just 10 points in the first half and 6 points in the final quarter.

Two familiar rivals meet in yet another tense matchup with huge implications, and while Buffalo’s offense has been a juggernaut this year, confronting one of the NFL’s most storied playoff defenses in hostile territory is no easy feat. As much as America would love another shootout, we doubt 2 high-level defenses will let that happen.

Bills vs Chiefs prediction: Under 47.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 47.

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Chris R. Farley

Chris Farley

Show Bio

Chris is a writer for Pickswise who’s been handicapping the NFL since 2011. He began his public betting career as a betting writer, and has since become a contributing analyst for various betting sites and shows. He was a 5th place winner ($114k) in the 2021 NFL Circa Millions contest, and he owns his own sports betting podcast, Laying the Points. Chris approaches handicapping using psychosocial principles and nuanced market analysis. The NFL and NBA are his favorite and most profitable sports.

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