Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 09/29/24
WLWWW | Last 5 | WLLLW |
| 3-0 | Record | 1-2 |
| 2-1-0 | ATS Record | 1-2-0 |
| 2-1 | O/U Record | 3-0 |
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The Baltimore Ravens are fresh off their first win of the season but it was mighty impressive. Entering Dallas as a mere 1-point favorite, Baltimore ran away with the game, literally and figuratively, from the opening kickoff, stacking up over 250 yards on the ground and over 450 total against a Dallas operation that was embarrassed the week prior. That’s not easy to do in any venue, let alone AT&T Stadium when the ‘Boys are motivated. It also wasn’t that surprising. Despite their 1-2 record, the Ravens are 5th in total DVOA rankings. And despite their mediocre defensive performances so far this season (allowing 26 ppg), they’re the #1 run-defense in the NFL (allowing just 2.8 yards per rush, 50 yards per game). Normally, one might think this is a major advantage when playing the Bills, who love to run James Cook and Josh Allen and anyone else who wants to take part. The issue is, we’re not sure how accurate the Ravens’ defensive metrics are in the run game, and we’re positive they’re less capable against the pass (7.5 yards per pass allowed, ranked 28th). Baltimore slowed down the Chiefs’ run-game, which was impressive. The Raiders, on the other hand, are the worst running team in the NFL, and Dallas was trailing all game and their run-game is terrible, too.
Insert the Buffalo Bills. In short, the Bills have done nothing to suggest they deserve an underdog spread in any way. In this Week 4 scenario, they could easily be the favorite. They’re the #1 team in DVOA, with the most explosive offense in the league through 3 games. No team is scoring more (37 ppg), and since the second half of Week 1, they’ve outscored opponents 104-31. Their offense has overshadowed a defense that’s only permitting 4.2 yards per play (2nd), 16 ppg (7th), and a 33.33% TD rate in the red zone (7th). This spread sits where it does because Baltimore is at home and coming off a seminal win, but we are not stepping in front of the Buffalo Bills. In what should be a raucous environment and extremely fun game to watch, give me Buffalo running away in the fourth quarter.
Bills vs Ravens prediction: Bills +2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +1.5.
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Bills vs Ravens Pickswise Expert Predictions
Chris Farley
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Model projections coming soon
The Ravens' last 3 games have gone over the total.
The Bills have won 4 straight road games.
The Bills failed to cover the spread 11 times last season.
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