Baltimore Ravens vs Los Angeles Chargers Prediction, Odds and MNF Picks for Monday, 11/25/24
WLWWL | Last 5 | LWWWW |
7-4 | Record | 7-3 |
5-5-1 | ATS Record | 7-2-1 |
9-2 | O/U Record | 3-7 |
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The “Harbaugh Bowl” has returned as John’s Ravens will travel across the country to take on Jim’s Chargers. Baltimore is coming off a loss that has NFL analysts shifting their opinions (again) on their potential, while the Chargers are off a huge win on Sunday night, holding off a melee by Joe Burrow and the Bengals. The market typically overreacts to these week-to-week situations, but we are encouraged to see that Baltimore is still getting the respect they deserve. We will argue they should get even more. Watching the Chargers this season proves how coaching can make a huge difference in football. Jim Harbaugh’s program is 7-3, competitive with the Chiefs in the AFC West, and they already have one of the NFL’s best defenses. Harbaugh has inherited a very talented roster on that side of the ball and he’s made the most out of it. And despite criticisms of the Bolts’ shallow wide-receiver depth chart, they’re doing plenty to win games (8th in yards/pass, 7.9). There is one area where the Chargers have consistently been a letdown all season, though – their run defense.
LA’s defense has mostly been terrific, but 11 weeks in they’re still allowing 4.7 yards per rush, a bottom-10 mark in the league (23rd). All year, good running teams have succeeded against the Chargers: Pittsburgh (114), Kansas City (110), Arizona (181) and Tennessee (157) to name a few. This is not great news with Derrick Henry and the Ravens coming to town, an offense that averages 5.8 yards/rush (1st) and 177.3 rush yards/game (2nd). On top of that, the Ravens are off a very emotional loss. Lamar Jackson is facing his share of criticism once again, with pundits and analysts claiming he cannot win “the big game” after another collapse against his rival. We’re not here to argue either way, but Sunday night does not qualify as a similar spot. The Ravens are angry, while the Chargers are probably a little too fat and sassy after surviving against Cincinnati and winning 4 straight. We like Baltimore to go off on Monday Night Football.
Ravens vs Chargers prediction: Ravens -3 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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Ravens vs Chargers Pickswise Expert Predictions
Same Game Parlay
Pickswise Expert Prop Picks
According to PFF, the Ravens have a clear advantage in pass-blocking tonight against LA and when Lamar Jackson is given time he’s been surgical this season. The Chargers rank in the bottom 10 in pressure rate this season (18.7%). When looking for a comparable matchup this season, the closest we get is the Las Vegas Raiders (17.5). In that game, Jackson threw 34 times, rushing only 5 times. Jackson’s splits when under pressure compared to when he’s kept clean have large disparities. When kept clean, he’s scrambling on nearly 4% of drop backs compared to 15% when under pressure. Jackson’s median pass attempts on the season sit at 33 so we’re getting a good number and a favorable matchup for him to sit in the pocket and sling it. The Chargers rank 10th overall in opponent pass attempts per game with 33.9.
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The Ravens are on a 3-game win streak on the road at the Chargers.
The Over is 5-1 in the Ravens' road games this season.
The Chargers are 4-0-1 ATS at home this season.
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