Baltimore Ravens vs Houston Texans Prediction, Odds and NFL Christmas Picks for Wednesday, 12/25/24
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The NFL can’t turn away a prime opportunity for viewership and thus we have 2 big AFC matchups on Christmas; the evening finale pitting the Ravens against the Texans. From a psycho-emotional standpoint, it’s tough to know how to handicap these 2 programs. Firstly, we’ve never had a midweek NFL game on Christmas, so we don’t know how either program will respond, although we’re inclined to believe that Houston, surrounded by family and friends all week since they’re at home, will be slightly more distracted. It’s also worth noting that the Texans have now secured the AFC South title and are unlikely to improve on their current #4 seed, while the Ravens are still in a dogfight with the Steelers to win the AFC North.
Unlike the Texans, who lost Tank Dell and haven’t looked impressive in a month (and they barely beat Miami and Jacksonville in recent battles), the Ravens have little to complain about. Baltimore is one of the least injured teams in the NFL and they earned a playoff spot last Saturday, securing their chances at a Lombardi Trophy whether they win the AFC North or not. The Ravens have also had a successful history against the Texans, beating them twice last season (once in the Wild Card round) by a combined score of 59-19. It was one of the only opponents where CJ Stroud looked outmatched and out of sorts in his rookie campaign, and lately Stroud hasn’t been at his best, either. Although he’ll still make exceptional plays on the field, the Texans’ offense just isn’t doing enough. They’ve only surpassed 30 points in 2 contests this season and over 15 games and they qualify as pedestrian (13th in points per game, 19th in yards per game, and 19th in pass yards per game). Injuries to their wide receiver depth are only making matters worse, and although Joe Mixon has been a great addition, the Ravens boast the best run-defense in the NFL (1st in opponent yards per rush – 3.6). Unless Baltimore just doesn’t mentally show up, which would make no sense based on what they’re trying to achieve, nothing should come easy for Houston on Christmas.
On the other end, explosive offenses have given Houston trouble this season, and arguably no offense is as explosive as the one visiting NRG Stadium on Santa’s big day. The Ravens are 1st in yards per play (6.9) and 3rd in points per play, a metric that best displays a team’s ability to score quickly. We imagine Demeco Ryans will have his men amped up for this big matchup, but eventually we expect the dam to break. The Ravens just have too much talent to be kept down for 4 quarters by an unfamiliar opponent. We don’t doubt Stroud’s ability to rise to the occasion, and we imagine the Texans will fight hard at home, but based on the metrics, matchup, and recent history, there’s only one way we can look.
Ravens vs Texans prediction: Ravens -3 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to 3.5.
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Ravens vs Texans Pickswise Expert Predictions
Chris Farley
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Pickswise Expert Prop Picks
If you want to bet on this player prop bet then I suggest you be quick! At the time of publishing, Bet365 has a very favorable 252.5 number, while DraftKings is down at 246.5 and FanDuel is more than 10 yards lower at 241.5. There are a lot of factors that suggest CJ Stroud could struggle in this matchup. For starters, he just lost one of his top targets Tank Dell to injury, which means that Nico Collins is effectively the last man standing after Stefon Diggs was injured earlier in the season. Stroud has eclipsed this line just twice in his last 10 games, so it was already asking a lot for him to go over this number even if Dell was healthy.
What’s especially noteworthy however is how much Stroud struggles when under pressure. Although the Ravens’ problems against the pass this season are well-documented, they’ve actually recorded the 2nd-most sacks in the NFL. And when Stroud faces teams with a strong pass-rush, his performances take a dip. He is averaging 232.8 passing yards per game this season, but when he’s come against the Cowboys (257), Vikings (215), Packers (86) and Jets (191), who all rank in the top-half of the league in sack rate, his average drops to 187.25. Baltimore has a ton of motivation in this game and I’m expecting them to bring the heat. There is always the danger of garbage time yards with Baltimore a 5.5-point favorite, but this number feels way to high to pass up.
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The Texans have lost 7 of their last 10 games as a home underdog.
8 of the Ravens' last 9 road games have gone Over the total.
The Ravens have covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with worse records.
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Thursday Night Football Seattle Seahawks vs Chicago Bears Same Game Parlay: D.K. Metcalf gets it done at +700 odds
Week 17 in the 2024 NFL season continues with a showdown in the NFC between the Seattle Seahawks and Chicago Bears. There is nothing to play for in Chicago’s case (except - as usual - for a very hig...
