Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore Ravens vs Houston Texans Prediction, Odds and NFL Christmas Picks for Tomorrow, 12/25/24

NRG StadiumNetflix
Ravens
Ravens
Tomorrow
Texans
Texans
LWLWW
Last 5
WLWWL
10-5Record9-6
8-6-1ATS Record6-9-0
12-3O/U Record5-10

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Houston Texans

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Baltimore Ravens
NFL
Houston Texans
Point Spread PickBest Bet
BAL Ravens -3.0(-120)BAL Ravens @ HOU Texans

The NFL can’t turn away a prime opportunity for viewership and thus we have 2 big AFC matchups on Christmas; the evening finale pitting the Ravens against the Texans. From a psycho-emotional standpoint, it’s tough to know how to handicap these 2 programs. Firstly, we’ve never had a midweek NFL game on Christmas, so we don’t know how either program will respond, although we’re inclined to believe that Houston, surrounded by family and friends all week since they’re at home, will be slightly more distracted. It’s also worth noting that the Texans have now secured the AFC South title and are unlikely to improve on their current #4 seed, while the Ravens are still in a dogfight with the Steelers to win the AFC North.

Unlike the Texans, who lost Tank Dell and haven’t looked impressive in a month (and they barely beat Miami and Jacksonville in recent battles), the Ravens have little to complain about. Baltimore is one of the least injured teams in the NFL and they earned a playoff spot last Saturday, securing their chances at a Lombardi Trophy whether they win the AFC North or not. The Ravens have also had a successful history against the Texans, beating them twice last season (once in the Wild Card round) by a combined score of 59-19. It was one of the only opponents where CJ Stroud looked outmatched and out of sorts in his rookie campaign, and lately Stroud hasn’t been at his best, either. Although he’ll still make exceptional plays on the field, the Texans’ offense just isn’t doing enough. They’ve only surpassed 30 points in 2 contests this season and over 15 games and they qualify as pedestrian (13th in points per game, 19th in yards per game, and 19th in pass yards per game). Injuries to their wide receiver depth are only making matters worse, and although Joe Mixon has been a great addition, the Ravens boast the best run-defense in the NFL (1st in opponent yards per rush – 3.6). Unless Baltimore just doesn’t mentally show up, which would make no sense based on what they’re trying to achieve, nothing should come easy for Houston on Christmas.

On the other end, explosive offenses have given Houston trouble this season, and arguably no offense is as explosive as the one visiting NRG Stadium on Santa’s big day. The Ravens are 1st in yards per play (6.9) and 3rd in points per play, a metric that best displays a team’s ability to score quickly. We imagine Demeco Ryans will have his men amped up for this big matchup, but eventually we expect the dam to break. The Ravens just have too much talent to be kept down for 4 quarters by an unfamiliar opponent. We don’t doubt Stroud’s ability to rise to the occasion, and we imagine the Texans will fight hard at home, but based on the metrics, matchup, and recent history, there’s only one way we can look.

Ravens vs Texans prediction: Ravens -3 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to 3.5.

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Chris R. Farley

Ravens vs Texans Pickswise Expert Predictions

Baltimore Ravens
NFL
Houston Texans
Game Totals Pick
Under 47.0(-110)BAL Ravens @ HOU Texans

Regardless of who wins Christmas Day’s big AFC matchup, both teams are in a really tough spot. Getting just 3 full days of rest in between, both the Ravens and Texans will both travel to Houston and attempt to regroup after very physical matchups last Saturday. The scheduling situation mirrors the short week teams get when they play on Thursday Night Football. Surprisingly, this has had little effect on the average NFL total. The average total per game in the 2024 season is 46.7 on Thursdays, 45.6 overall; a small difference when considering how this game will play out. The average total when contests are played at NRG Stadium, however, is a different story. Battles in Houston average just 43 points per game, and it really should be lower if it wasn’t for a weird, outlier game where the Titans beat the Texans 32-27 in Week 12. Regardless, we like numerical evidence that this will be a low-scoring game since we were already leaning in that direction.

The Ravens’ offense has been explosive most of the season (424 yards per game, 1st), but they certainly have their moments. Better defenses like Kansas City, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia have stifled their production, and the Texans qualify as a top-10 unit (they’re ranked 9th in opponent points per game and top-4 in opponent yards per game, yards per play, and 3rd-down conversion rate).  On the other side, we also like how Baltimore matches up with their foe. CJ Stroud was already without top receiver Stefon Diggs and now he’s without Tank Dell. Baltimore’s defense has issues with many of the same opponents every year (Kansas City, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh), but they’re typically exceptional against all the others. Meanwhile, Houston’s offense has been sputtering for a while, producing just 270 yards and 22 points per game in their past 4 contests. Add in the nerves and emotional toll of a short week during a major holiday, and this intra-AFC battle has all the ingredients of a low-scoring affair.

Ravens vs Texans prediction: Under 47 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 46.

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Chris R. Farley
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Chris Farley

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Chris is a writer for Pickswise who’s been handicapping the NFL since 2011. He began his public betting career as a betting writer, and has since become a contributing analyst for various betting sites and shows. He was a 5th place winner ($114k) in the 2021 NFL Circa Millions contest, and he owns his own sports betting podcast, Laying the Points. Chris approaches handicapping using psychosocial principles and nuanced market analysis. The NFL and NBA are his favorite and most profitable sports.
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21+. New users and first wager only. See Caesars.com/promos for full terms. Know When To Stop Before You Start.® Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. MA: CALL 1-800-327-5050 NY: Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369)

bet365

$1,000

Bet $5 and Get $150 in Bonus Bets OR $1,000 Back If Your First Bet Loses

Register for a new bet365 account

Place $5+ and get $150 in bonus bets - no matter if your bet wins or loses

OR $1,000 back in bonus bets if your first bet loses

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. 21+. Physically present in OH, CO, NJ, VA, IA, KY, LA, AZ, IN. Eligibility restrictions apply. Subject to regulatory licensing requirements. Opt-in req. Valid 1 per customer. Deposit required. Paid in Bonus Bets. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. New Customers only. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply

Underdog Fantasy

$1,000

First Time Deposit Offer up to $1,000 in Bonus Cash

Sign up for a new account with Underdog Fantasy

Make your first deposit up to $1,000

Get a 100% deposit match, and new users can get up to $1,000 in bonus cash on their first deposit

Must be 21+ to play. Terms & conditions apply

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