HomeNFLNFL PredictionsAtlanta Falcons vs Washington Commanders Prediction, Odds and SNF Picks

Atlanta Falcons vs Washington Commanders Prediction, Odds and SNF Picks for Sunday, 12/29/24

Updated: 7:52 AM ET Dec 24, 2024

Northwest StadiumNBC

Falcons

8:20 PM ETSun Dec 29

Commanders

LLLWW	Last 5	LLWWW
8-7	Record	10-5
7-8-0	ATS Record	9-5-1
5-10	O/U Record	10-5

Vote on who will cover the spread!

Falcons vs Commanders Pickswise Expert Predictions

NFL

Point Spread Pick

ATL Falcons +4.0(-105)ATL Falcons @ WAS Commanders

Reasoning

The Falcons and Commanders both did themselves a solid with big wins this past Sunday, increasing their chances of a postseason experience. Atlanta currently sits in 4th, the winner of the NFC South if it ended today (they own the tiebreaker over the Bucs, since they beat them twice this season), while Washington would be the final Wild Card. Despite a higher seed, the market believes that the Commanders are the most dangerous team, a valuation we tend to agree with, although Atlanta’s forecast just got brighter. Rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. had a fantastic first start. Sure, he was playing the Giants, arguably the league’s worst team, but a rookie thrower’s first game behind center is no easy spot, and Penix never looked rattled. The former Washington QB threw 18/27 for 205 yards (7.5 yards per pass) on Sunday, which included 4 dropped passes by his receivers and an interception that wasn’t his fault (Kyle Pitts coughed the ball up into a defender’s arms). It was a great sign for a Falcons team that needed an emotional boost. And Penix’s arm strength was visibly different from his predecessor. The leftie was slinging rockets across the field with ease, and was unafraid to push the ball downfield. That seemed to open up Bijan Robinson and the Falcons’ rushing attack, which gained a solid 127 yards.

That’s good news for the Falcons because Washington’s defense isn’t much better. Jayden Daniels has been amazing in his rookie season and hope has been restored in DC, but it’s rarely because of their defense. Better offenses consistently put points against Washington, just ask Tampa (37), Cincinnati (33), Baltimore (30), Pittsburgh (28) and Philadelphia (59 combined points in 2 games). We’re not sure if the Falcons are suddenly “elite” now with Penix, but they surely looked better. And when Atlanta went down 7-0 early, Penix immediately responded and led the Falcons right down the field for a quick score. The kid seems poised, prepared, and fundamentally sound– 3 qualities that few throwers exhibit in the modern era. The Atlanta defense has also played much better lately, producing 16 sacks and holding opposing offenses to just 281 rushing yards over their past 4 games. Lastly, Washington is coming off a huge, emotional victory against the Eagles, the top team in their division, while the Falcons had a proverbial practice session against the hapless Giants. This is a dangerous spot for the Commanders, and we project it to be a very close contest.

Falcons vs Commanders prediction: Falcons +4 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 3.5.

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Chris R. Farley

NFL

Game Totals Pick

Under 47.5(-110)ATL Falcons @ WAS Commanders

Reasoning

Two basic elements are a part of every handicap – 1) an evaluation of each team and 2) an evaluation of the line itself. The latter typically means more. In this case, the number is telling us that Atlanta vs Washington will be a higher-scoring game. The dynamics of both programs don’t necessarily agree. On Washington’s side, the market hasn’t caught up to their proclivity to create “overs.” The Commanders are 10-5 to the over, including overs in 5 of their last 7 contests. The Falcons are the exact opposite– 10-5 to the under, including unders in 6 of their last 7 contests. So what gives in this matchup? From an outsider’s perspective, one might consider an over. After all, Washington QB Jayden Daniels is the consensus favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year and the Falcons just got an upgrade with Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback; their offense generated 35 points and 329 yards in his first start. Points are on their way, right? Not so fast.

We like Penix and his potential to succeed on Sunday, but it’s worth noting that Washington is sneaky-good against the pass. They’re 4th in sack percentage, 6th in opponent completion percentage and 4th in opponent passing yards per game (185.5). In a playoff atmosphere, we think Penix will hold his own, but that doesn’t mean he’ll explode and have a massively productive game. After all, against a porous Giants’ secondary, Atlanta was mostly conservative, choosing to run on 38 of 65 plays (58%). Washington isn’t nearly as capable against the run (29th in opponent yards per rush and 30th in opponent rush yards per game), which should grant the Falcons a chance to play ball-control and keep-away from Daniels.

On the other side, Washington is a legitimate top-10 offense, a huge part of why their battles have averaged 52 points per game this season, but Atlanta’s resistance is better than you might think. The Falcons are 9th in opponent yards per rush and pass this season, 2 metrics that describe a true bend-don’t-break defense. After Daniels’ awesome performance last Sunday, slowing down the Commanders’ offense will be what’s emphasized most during Atlanta’s week of prep, especially with a thrower who’s only starting in his second NFL game. Maybe Daniels and Penix put on a show. From where we’re sitting, particularly with the nerves of the playoffs looming and the need for both programs to keep winning, this total is a tad too high.

Falcons vs Commanders prediction: Under 47.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Chris R. Farley

Chris Farley

Show Bio

Chris is a writer for Pickswise who’s been handicapping the NFL since 2011. He began his public betting career as a betting writer, and has since become a contributing analyst for various betting sites and shows. He was a 5th place winner ($114k) in the 2021 NFL Circa Millions contest, and he owns his own sports betting podcast, Laying the Points. Chris approaches handicapping using psychosocial principles and nuanced market analysis. The NFL and NBA are his favorite and most profitable sports.

@FarleyBets

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