Atlanta Falcons vs Washington Commanders Prediction, Odds and SNF Picks for Sunday, 12/29/24
LLLWW | Last 5 | LLWWW |
8-7 | Record | 10-5 |
7-8-0 | ATS Record | 9-5-1 |
5-10 | O/U Record | 10-5 |
Vote on who will cover the spread!
Falcons vs Commanders Pickswise Expert Predictions
The Falcons and Commanders both did themselves a solid with big wins this past Sunday, increasing their chances of a postseason experience. Atlanta currently sits in 4th, the winner of the NFC South if it ended today (they own the tiebreaker over the Bucs, since they beat them twice this season), while Washington would be the final Wild Card. Despite a higher seed, the market believes that the Commanders are the most dangerous team, a valuation we tend to agree with, although Atlanta’s forecast just got brighter. Rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. had a fantastic first start. Sure, he was playing the Giants, arguably the league’s worst team, but a rookie thrower’s first game behind center is no easy spot, and Penix never looked rattled. The former Washington QB threw 18/27 for 205 yards (7.5 yards per pass) on Sunday, which included 4 dropped passes by his receivers and an interception that wasn’t his fault (Kyle Pitts coughed the ball up into a defender’s arms). It was a great sign for a Falcons team that needed an emotional boost. And Penix’s arm strength was visibly different from his predecessor. The leftie was slinging rockets across the field with ease, and was unafraid to push the ball downfield. That seemed to open up Bijan Robinson and the Falcons’ rushing attack, which gained a solid 127 yards.
That’s good news for the Falcons because Washington’s defense isn’t much better. Jayden Daniels has been amazing in his rookie season and hope has been restored in DC, but it’s rarely because of their defense. Better offenses consistently put points against Washington, just ask Tampa (37), Cincinnati (33), Baltimore (30), Pittsburgh (28) and Philadelphia (59 combined points in 2 games). We’re not sure if the Falcons are suddenly “elite” now with Penix, but they surely looked better. And when Atlanta went down 7-0 early, Penix immediately responded and led the Falcons right down the field for a quick score. The kid seems poised, prepared, and fundamentally sound– 3 qualities that few throwers exhibit in the modern era. The Atlanta defense has also played much better lately, producing 16 sacks and holding opposing offenses to just 281 rushing yards over their past 4 games. Lastly, Washington is coming off a huge, emotional victory against the Eagles, the top team in their division, while the Falcons had a proverbial practice session against the hapless Giants. This is a dangerous spot for the Commanders, and we project it to be a very close contest.
Falcons vs Commanders prediction: Falcons +4 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 3.5.
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The Falcons have covered in each of their 3 matchups against NFC East teams this season.
7 of the Falcons' last 9 games (78%) have stayed Under the total.
The Commanders have won 4 of their last 5 matchups against NFC South teams.
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