Arizona Cardinals vs Minnesota Vikings Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 12/01/24

An interesting matchup here in the NFC as the Minnesota Vikings get ready to host the Arizona Cardinals. Both these teams have surpassed expectations in 2024, as the Vikings enter at 9-2 while the Cards are tied for first in the NFC West. Arizona is coming off an ugly loss to the Seahawks, and I think now is a great time to buy low. Right before that loss Arizona had won 5 out of 6, with the only loss in that span coming on the road in Green Bay.

Sure the Vikings have won four in a row, but just look at who they’ve beaten in that stretch. The Bears, Titans, Jaguars and Colts. Not exactly a murderer’s row, and that’s putting it kindly. Right before that stretch against some of the league’s most fledgling teams, they were struggling. The last two times they played functioning teams, they lost back to back games to the Lions and Rams. Los Angeles isn’t anything special, and they beat the Vikings by 10. Sam Darnold was good last week against the Bears but he’s started to show signs of regression after a hot start, and even during this 4-game win streak he still has thrown 5 interceptions. He had 3 against the Jaguars but the team was still able to escape with an ugly 12-7 win because they were playing Mac Jones.

They won’t have any such luxuries here. Even in the win over Chicago last week the Vikings didn’t look particularly impressive, as they blew a huge lead late to an incompetent Bears team, and needed a field goal in overtime to just barely escape. A lot of their recent wins have been thrillers that came down to the wire, so I’m not too confident in their ability to win by more than a field goal here.

Cardinals +3.5 (-115) available at publishing.

The under also makes some sense in this spot. Sam Darnold and the Vikings offense have regressed recently, as even during the team’s current 4-game win streak Darnold has thrown 5 interceptions. Against the lowly Jaguars they only scored 12 points, but were able to eke out a win because of Brian Flores’ swarming defense. I don’t think this one will be quite so low scoring, but there are reasons to believe it won’t be a shootout. Minnesota is one of the toughest environments to play in across the league, and Kyler Murray and the Cardinals’ offense have seen a significant drop-off on the road this year.

At home, Murray is averaging 8.0 yards per attempt. On the highway, it’s 7.0 yards per attempt. On the flip side, Arizona’s defense is a lot better than most people realize. They still get talked about like they’re a weak unit, but across their past 3 games they’ve given up only 31 total points. In four of their last five matchups, they’ve held their opponent to 16 or fewer. Jonathan Gannon has his side of the ball ascending, and Minnesota’s defense is one of the best in the league, while both offenses have looked a bit shaky recently.

Under 45 available at publishing.