NFL Picks

The biggest spread of the NFL season has waited all the way until Week 18 to reveal itself and it makes perfect sense. The Ravens can clinch the AFC North and the #3 seed with a win on Saturday, surpassing Pittsburgh following their big victory against the Steelers in Week 16. Healthy across both units, at home, and going up against a third-string quarterback creates a uniquely powerful situation for the Ravens, who are obviously expected to walk away with a W. 

On the other side, it hasn’t looked good for 2nd-year quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Through 2 games he’s completed just 44 out of 81 passes (54%) for only 327 yards. He hasn’t found the end zone once and he’s also thrown 3 interceptions. His last opponent, the Miami Dolphins, have been a formidable defense in the back half of the season, but his poor outing in Week 16 against a porous Bengals defense certainly doesn’t warrant any excitement. The young thrower is going through the typical challenges that accompany an inexperienced QB, and he’ll be facing a top-tier resistance outside in cold weather at one of the nation’s toughest venues. Browns coach Kevin Stefanski says they might play both Thompson-Robinson and Bailey Zappe, as if that makes any difference whatsoever. Needless to say, prospects don’t look promising for Cleveland’s last hoorah.

As wild as this spread is, we simply cannot support the Browns. Cleveland is an organization in flux, fresh off of a restructuring of Deshaun Watson’s contract, the controversial QB who’s hated by most Browns fans but appears to be returning to play more football next season. The Ravens are hyper-motivated to win this contest and move on to more meaningful competition, and aside from Myles Garrett, nearly every matchup favors the home team.

Browns vs Ravens prediction: Ravens -17 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 17.5.

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Firstly, the weather will not be kind for either offense on Saturday. Baltimore, Maryland’s forecast shows a high of 32 degrees fahrenheit, meaning temperatures will not surpass the “freezing” mark throughout the entire contest. Even worse for both offenses, it’s going to be windy, with steady 15 mph winds turning into gusts as high as 25-30 mph during gametime. Baltimore is intent on winning this game and we’re inclined to believe they’ll be effective when they need to, but they also likely won’t need to pour it on or do anything supremely impressive to win this contest. The weather should force the ball into Derrick Henry’s able arms, and their defense has an A+ matchup against backup quarterbacks and an offense that’s only scored a combined 30 points in the past 4 weeks. In the Browns’ past 3 games, they haven’t eclipsed 300 yards or 7 points in a single contest.

It’s rare to see a spread this big paired with a total this low, but the predicted narrative is obvious and not one we can dispute. The Browns’ backup quarterbacks should struggle mightily in a hostile environment, while Baltimore and one of the NFL’s premier rushing offenses can bleed clock and pound the rock for all 4 quarters. We’re not expecting fireworks, and we wouldn’t be surprised if the second half had nearly no scoring once the home team takes a big lead.

Browns vs Ravens prediction: Under 42 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 41.

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Hammering the Bengals to win and cover this contest seems too easy. Assuming the Ravens win, which would be easily the biggest upset of the decade if they didn’t, the Steelers would not be able to win the AFC North on Saturday night. So why would Mike Tomlin risk injuring players right before the postseason, especially since the Steelers are coming off 3 games in 11 days and their bye week was all the way in Week 9? Needless to say, Pittsburgh could probably use a break, but it doesn’t look like Tomlin wants that for his boys. After all, no coach wants his team limping into the playoffs, and they’re coming off 3 straight losses. And Pittsburgh is coming off 3 straight bad losses on top of it, games where they were outscored by 14, 17 and 19-point margins. As of Wednesday, Tomlin said the idea of sitting his guys “hasn’t crossed my mind,” so we’re inclined to believe that the Steelers are a full-go, regardless of their chances to still win the AFC North or not.

We know the Bengals will be motivated. Joe Burrow and his offense continue to pour it on opponents, averaging 32.4 points per game in their past 8 games and currently on a 4-game winning streak. The Steelers’ offense has been the issue in recent losses, scoring just 40 points over the past 3 contests, but they had little issue when facing Cincinnati in their first meeting. At Paycor Stadium back in Week 13, the Steelers put up 44 points, 28 first downs and 520 total yards against the hapless Bengals defense. It’s also worth noting that the Bengals put up more points on the Steelers than any other program this season. And even if Tomlin decides to play most of his starters, what will he do if 1 or 2 players get injured and the game isn’t going how he wants it to? Or could he only play starters until halftime if they gain an early lead and he feels good about their effort? The bottom line is that we have no questions about Cincinnati’s motivation or momentum heading into this battle (they’re also seeking revenge against Pittsburgh, who’s now bested Cincinnati 3 times in a row), and we trust the Bengals’ offense to answer when it needs to. Teasing the Steelers may not be a bad idea, but there’s no chance we’re taking them on a short spread.

Bengals vs Steelers prediction: Bengals -1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 2.5.

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One thing was certain about the first game between these 2 AFC North rivals– neither offense had an issue moving the ball or scoring at will. Ending 44-38, the Bengals and Steelers’ Week 13 clash at Paycor Stadium was quite the barnburner. They combined for 895 yards and 82 points. Even more startling is that both outfits exceeded 100 yards of penalties and at one point Pittsburgh missed a field goal – what would the score have been without those gaffes?

Although their defense has improved slightly over the last month of action, by now we know that the Bengals win with their offense. It’s the reason why they’re among the best game-total teams to the Over (11-5 this season) since their weekly showings feature a ton of electric offense and very little resistance when the other unit takes the field. This total is a bit reduced since this is an AFC North battle, aka hard-hitting, blue-collar football, and the possibility that Steelers’ starters sit must be considered. On the other hand, that just means we’re getting a better number to bet against. The weather will be predictably cold, well below freezing, but every team in the AFC North is used to that, and winds won’t be too detrimental to either passing game (10-15 mph). Even if we tried to contend that the under is the way to go, this is a perfect get-right setup for the Steelers’ offense and we trust Burrow and the Bengals’ production over any defense.

Bengals vs Steelers prediction: Over 48 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 48.5.

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There are a lot of variables to consider in Week 18. That’s especially true for this matchup considering we’re going to see a lot of backups. The Bills locked up the AFC East weeks ago and don’t have anything to play for this weekend, but Josh Allen is determined to preserve his start streak. He has started 114 games in a row and has already announced he’s going to start on Sunday to extend that streak before Mitchell Trubisky replaces him. But by the second half, I’m not expecting to see many starters for Buffalo. That makes it difficult to predict what we’re going to see from the Bills on Sunday. However, the Patriots will be much easier to predict.

It would be incredibly irresponsible for the Patriots to play Drake Maye in Week 18. Following the Giants’ unexpected win in Week 17, the Pats have slid into the #1 spot for the 2025 NFL Draft. This is an opportunity for New England to change the course of the sinking franchise, so the last thing they need is to win in Week 18 and lose that spot. I’m expecting Jacoby Brissett to be announced as the starting quarterback, which didn’t work too well for New England in the first month of the season. There’s zero reason for the Pats to risk Maye getting hurt and I can’t see the Patriots scoring more than 13 points on Sunday. I’m leaning towards the Bills on Sunday, but there are a lot of uncertainties around this game.

It’s going to be a cold day in Foxborough, Massachusetts on Sunday afternoon. The temperature is expected to be in the teens with wind throughout the game, which seems like a classic January day in New England. So between the cold weather and backup quarterbacks, I’m siding with the Under in this divisional matchup. It’s already one of the lowest totals in Week 18 and I still don’t think it’s low enough.

Buffalo is going to have most of their starters play the first quarter or half before rotating in some substitutions. That means we could see the starters take advantage of the weak and injured Patriots defense, but I think the scoring opportunities will decrease in the second half with the backups in. It’s going to be a lot of running the clock in the second half for the Bills and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a score around 20-10 in favor of Buffalo.

The Atlanta Falcons need a win and some help when they host the NFC South rival Carolina Panthers on Sunday afternoon. Atlanta’s only route to the playoffs is the division title, which it can only secure with a victory combined with a Tampa Bay Buccaneers loss to the New Orleans Saints. Although the Falcons should be able to hold up their end of the bargain, 8 points are too many to give. For all intents and purposes, Atlanta has no realistic chance. After all, Tampa Bay is a 2-touchdown home favorite over a visiting New Orleans squad that looks entirely hopeless right now. It should also be noted that the Falcons are coming off a brutal overtime loss at the Washington Commanders on Sunday Night Football, adding to their misery of a mostly disappointing season. Rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. has been solid but unspectacular in his 2 starts.

Carolina did not look good last weekend against Tampa Bay, but this team has otherwise shown signs of improvement during the second half of the 2024 campaign. Most importantly, former #1 overall pick Bryce Young finally looks like a potential franchise QB of the future following a rough start to his pro career. Young has 4 touchdown passes and zero interceptions over the past 2 outings and he has gone without an INT in 5 of his last 7 starts. Atlanta has won by more than 6 points only twice this season; there is no reason to think that trend will suddenly end in Week 18.

Panthers vs Falcons prediction: Panthers +8 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +7.5.

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An Over play correlates nicely with Panthers +8, as the visitors probably won’t be able to cover if they don’t score a bunch of points. After all, their defense stinks. Carolina has surrendered 496 points — by far the most in the league (the Dallas Cowboys are second to last at 445) — and has an outside chance to break the all-time record for points allowed in a single season (albeit in 17 games instead of 16). The Panthers have given up at least 30 in 3 consecutive contests. Now they run into a potent Atlanta offense led by star running back Bijan Robinson. Michael Penix is still raw, but he was solid in his first 2 starts — which resulted in 34 points against the New York Giants and 24 against the Commanders. On the other side of the ball, Bryce Young and company also have a favorable matchup with a generous Atlanta defense that is bad against the pass and often fails to put any pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The first head-to-head matchup of the season between these 2 NFC South rivals featured 58 points. Another high-scoring affair is likely.

Panthers vs Falcons prediction: Over 48 (-112) available at time of publishing. Playable to 49.5.

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Last week’s edition of Thursday Night Football was perhaps the worst primetime game of the year. It was the Seahawks taking on the Bears in the Windy City and it was a snoozefest. Seattle won the game 6-3 as neither team was able to find the end zone. The loss felt like another step in the wrong direction for Caleb Williams and the Bears as Chicago is just 4-12 heading into Week 18. Williams completed just 16 of his 28 passes for 122 yards with an interception against a weak Seattle secondary. Even with a solid receiving corps made up of DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze, Williams just can’t seem to find success. That’s the main reason for Chicago being listed as 9-point underdogs in Week 18. The Bears need to make some serious changes in the offseason, both on and off the field.

Green Bay’s second-half comeback came up just short last week. The Packers were taking on the Vikings in a critical divisional game, and Minnesota took an early 13-3 lead. Jordan Love was struggling in the pocket, but he was fortunate to have Josh Jacobs in the backfield and the Packers finally started to show some life in the second half. A 15-point 4th quarter still wasn’t enough as the Packers fell 27-25. Fortunately for Green Bay, they have already locked in their playoff spot and don’t have anything to play for in Week 18. With that said, a loss to the Bears in Week 18 would be a terrible way to go into the playoffs. Expect the Packers to come out strong and continue Chicago’s season-long blues.

It’s going to be a cold day in Green Bay on Sunday. The temperature is expected to reach just 22 degrees, but with the wind chill, it’s going to feel around 16 degrees at kickoff. That’s just one of the few reasons for why the total is fairly low. Another reason is that the Bears’ offense has been terrible in the last few weeks. Wiliams has led Chicago to just 3, 17, 12 and 13 points in the last 4 games. His inability to connect with Moore and Allen has plagued the Bears offense and D’Andre Swift has been a lackluster option in the backfield. And unfortunately for Williams, he will be taking on a Packers secondary that is allowing the 8th-fewest passing yards per game at home.

The only thing holding the Packers back in the last few weeks at times has been Jordan Love. The franchise quarterback, who is hoping for a big extension in the offseason, has thrown for 206 yards or less in 4 of the last 6 games. He hasn’t thrown an interception during that span, but it shows the Packers have been relying on Josh Jacobs more and more. Leaning on the run game creates a running clock and fewer possessions in the game which means fewer opportunities to score. Between the cold weather, Chicago’s struggling offense and Green Bay’s rushing attack, the Under looks the right side to be on.

AFC South action here in the final week of the regular season as the Indianapolis Colts get ready to host the Jacksonville Jaguars. With Anthony Richardson missing practice again this week with his back injury, it looks like it’s going to be Joe Flacco under center for the Colts to close it out. And with how erratic Richardson has been, that’s probably for the best here. Flacco hasn’t been spectacular but he’s been solid, averaging 7.2 yards per attempt with 11 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. And his 2 worst games which skew those numbers came against elite Bills and Vikings teams in games where he had absolutely no chance. Outside of those games against 2 of the NFL’s best defenses, Flacco’s numbers actually look pretty good. And he’s in a much softer spot at home here against a Jags team that is just playing out the string.

Mac Jones is finishing the year in place of an injured Trevor Lawrence, and it hasn’t been great. Jones is incapable of pushing the ball down the field and is accordingly averaging just 6.3 yards per attempt, and he has more turnovers than touchdowns. Jacksonville is 2-7 in their last 9, and both of those wins were against the lowly 3-13 Titans. It’s been months since they beat a real team, and they haven’t done it without Lawrence. They’ve also been losing to some of the worst teams around during this stretch, as they’ve been beaten by both the Raiders and the Jets in the past few weeks, which is tough to do. In what seems likely to be the last game of the Doug Pederson era in Jacksonville, I don’t see any reason to back the underdog.

Jaguars vs Colts prediction: Colts -5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 6.5.

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I also think the Under makes some sense in this spot. Mac Jones is not an NFL quarterback, and he’s averaging just 6.3 yards per attempt despite the fact that he’s been playing some of the worst teams in the NFL recently. The Jaguars’ last 4 games have been against the Titans twice, the Jets and the Raiders. You couldn’t possibly have scripted an easier 4 games, and Jones has still struggled. Now he’s going on the road against a team that while certainly isn’t elite, is at least competent. I’m expecting it to be tough sledding, and I don’t see Jacksonville scoring much at all. Indianapolis’ defense just got embarrassed by Drew Lock and the Giants last week, and I think they’ll come out extra motivated here as a result. Back at home against a division opponent, they should look much sharper. And Trevor Lawrence isn’t the only key piece of Jacksonville’s offense who is sidelined. Evan Engram, Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis are all on injured reserve as well.

Jaguars vs Colts prediction: Under 44 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the New Orleans Saints knowing that victory will secure them the NFC South title and a place in the playoffs, and the Bucs should have no trouble earning the win. Tampa has been a juggernaut on offense all season, even despite losing both of their top wide receivers Chris Godwin and Mike Evans for a period, and that continued last week in their 48-14 decimation of the Panthers. Baker Mayfield had 359 passing yards and 5 touchdowns in that victory to take him to 39 TD passes on the season, and the Bucs should be motivated to add even more to that total. While any victory will do for Tampa to secure a playoff berth, expect them to take no chances and come out firing against this Saints defense that has allowed the 6th-most passing yards in the NFL.

New Orleans has completely collapsed down the stretch with Derek Carr sidelined, being humiliated 34-0 by the Packers on Monday Night Football before losing 25-10 to the lowly Raiders last week. This team has not reached 20 points in any of their last 5 games, and even though it is possible Carr suits up for the season finale, it’s unlikely that the Saints will be able to keep up with the freescoring Buccaneers. Tampa has held 3 of its past 4 opponents to 17 points or fewer and has given up the 5th-fewest rushing yards in the league. The Buccaneers crushed the Saints 51-27 when these teams met in October and we should see yet another smooth success for them here.

Saints vs Buccaneers prediction: Bucs -13.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 14.

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This number feels too low and the Over looks the right side to be on here. As already mentioned, this Buccaneers offense is an absolute juggernaut right now with Baker Mayfield throwing 2+ touchdown passes in each of his past 4 games and only the Lions, Bills and Ravens have scored more than them this season. Given Tampa’s scoring potential, they could contribute the vast majority of the points to this total on their own, but New Orleans should have some success as well. The Bucs have allowed the 5th-most passing yards and the 8th-most passing touchdowns in the NFL, and it’s worth remembering that it was Spencer Rattler under center for the Saints when they lost 51-27 in October, with Rattler putting up 243 passing yards and a touchdown. If Carr is able to suit up then that will be a bonus, but even without him I expect both of these teams to have enough juice on offense to go Over this modest number.

Saints vs Buccaneers prediction: Over 43.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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I will either look very smart or very foolish here. Mike Evans needs 85 yards to hit a major incentive for him financially. Of course, there will be an effort to get him those yards, but that doesn’t mean that anything is guaranteed. It feels like everyone in the world will be targeting Evans in this spot so that usually means that something silly happens. I’m cool fading the public here. If he ends between 86 and 100 then he hits his incentive but he still hits our under. Evans hasn’t seen a line this huge all season and for good reason. Evans is 11/13 on the under here and this game even has a small chance of dealing with weather conditions. Evans will be targeted by Baker Mayfield but a line of 100.5 feels way too high and is one I have to take the under on.

The Philadelphia Eagles will host the New York Giants in the final game of the regular season in a contest that’s extremely difficult to handicap. Philly clinched the #2 seed in the NFC, as the Lions and Vikings are both 14-2 and face off on Sunday Night Football for the home-field advantage. Therefore, the majority of Eagles players on Sunday will be backup or third-string guys, but I still think they can take down this Giants squad. Third-string QB Tanner McKee came into last week’s game against the Cowboys and threw 2 TDs in the 41-7 win, so he’s shown that he can put up points against an NFL defense.

New York enters Sunday’s game after upsetting the Indianapolis Colts in Week 17. Although it was nice for them to finally show up and score 45 points, I’m not sure how ecstatic Giants fans will be with the win. Since they took down Indy, they no longer own the #1 overall pick in the NFL Draft and are now in the #4 spot. The 3 teams ahead of them (Patriots, Titans and Browns) are not in great spots to win this week, so it seems unlikely that New York will be able to move back up. Even though they’ll be going up against Philly’s backups, I don’t expect the Giants to have another big game on offense.

New York won last week, but this victory snapped a 10-game losing streak. It also marked their lone win at home this year, so it feels like they had extra motivation to not go winless in front of their home fans. Although the Eagles are playing for nothing, their overall roster is still much stronger than New York’s, and I expect the hosts to get one more regular season win in front of their home fans.

Giants vs Eagles prediction: Philadelphia -3 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The second half of my Giants vs Eagles predictions is for Sunday’s contest to feature 40+ points. New York is coming off their best offensive performance of the season, and while I don’t think they’ll score 30+ in this one, they should be able to ride the momentum of their last game. Additionally, QB Drew Lock played extremely well in that one, as he recorded 309 passing yards, 4 TDs and no interceptions. If he even plays half as well against the Eagles, New York should be able to put up anywhere between 17-28 points.

The Eagles will be playing with their backups, and while I don’t expect them to play as well as last week, they should still have a good showing. Third-string QB Tanner McKee looked solid in his minimal action last week against the Cowboys, as he completed 3 of his 4 passes, 2 of which were touchdowns. Now, he’ll go up against a Giants defense that allowed 33 points to a Joe Flacco-led offense and has nothing to play for.

The Eagles’ offense has been one of the NFL’s best this year, as they’ve put up 27.7 ppg (7th in the NFL). While they’ll have their backups in, I still think Philadelphia can put up 21+ points with McKee leading the offense. Additionally, their defense should take a step back, which Drew Lock should take advantage of. In a game with little meaning, expect both offenses to show up and combine for 38+ points on Sunday.

Giants vs Eagles prediction: Over 37.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Washington Commanders and Dallas Cowboys face off on Sunday in Week 18, and while the Cowboys’ season is over, the Commanders are playing for playoff seeding in the NFC. Rookie QB Jayden Daniels has been fantastic for Washington all season, as he’s the frontrunner for Offensive Rookie of the Year and has led the Commanders to their first playoff appearance since 2021. He’s been red-hot since these teams last met, as Daniels has recorded 917 passing yards, 308 rushing yards, 14 total TDs and just 4 INTs in 4 games. The Cowboys upset the Commanders 34-26 in their Week 12 meeting, so I expect Washington to come back for revenge in this one.

It’s been a dismal season for Dallas, as they were just 3-5 when starting QB Dak Prescott announced he’d be out for the season due to hamstring surgery. Surprisingly, they’ve gone 4-4 since then, and backup QB Cooper Rush has more or less steadied the ship. However, the wheels completely fell off last week, as the Eagles dominated Dallas 41-7 and Rush completed just 50.7% of his passes for 147 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs. Eagles third-string QB Tanner McKee even came in and threw for 54 yards and 2 TDs, so this Dallas team has very little life remaining.

As I stated above, Dallas took down Washington in Week 12 when they were 10.5-point underdogs. Since then, the Commanders are 4-1 against the spread and have scored 32.0 ppg. Additionally, the Cowboys have been awful at AT&T Stadium this year, as they’re just 2-6 ATS at home in 2024-25 and have gone 2-8 ATS at home in their last 10 games. The Commanders secure a Wild Card matchup with the Rams or Buccaneers/Falcons (instead of the Eagles) with a victory on Sunday, so I expect them to give it their all and secure a 7+ point win.

Commanders vs Cowboys prediction: Washington -4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable up to 6 (-110).

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I anticipate that Washington will take care of business in Dallas, but I do expect the Cowboys to bounce back from their dismal 7-point performance against the Eagles last week. Cooper Rush has played well since taking over the starting role, as he has 1,678 passing yards, 11 TDs and 4 INTs in his 8 starts this season. The Cowboys have averaged 20.0 ppg in that span, but they’ve scored 26+ points in half of those games. The Commanders’ defense still has plenty of question marks and they’ve given up 21+ points in 9 of their 16 games this season.

If Dallas even scores 17 points on Sunday, the Commanders can get this Over the line. Washington has been on a tear since they lost to Dallas, as they’ve scored 30+ in 3 of their 4 games. Additionally, the Cowboys have given up 27.8 ppg (31st in the NFL) this season and were just torn apart by the Eagles’ backup and third-string QBs. I have a feeling that this Cowboys team has thrown in the towel and I’m not sure how much fight they’ll have in this game.

Both of these teams have been Over cash cows this year, as the Over has cashed in 11 of each team’s 16 games this season. Additionally, the Over has cashed in 6 of Dallas’ 8 home contests and in 6 of their last 7 games overall. The Cowboys have given up 26.6 ppg during that span, so I anticipate the Commanders will score 30+ on Sunday. Expect this game to finish in the 30-17 range and go with the Over in Dallas.

Commanders vs Cowboys prediction: Over 43.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable up to 44.5 (-115).

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The Kansas City Chiefs have already wrapped up the #1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs heading into their regular-season finale at the AFC West rival Denver Broncos on Sunday afternoon. That means QB Patrick Mahomes will get the week off — and the next one thanks to a first-round bye. Head coach Andy Reid has not confirmed who else will sit out this weekend, but Kansas City has several other stars who are less than 100 percent and have no reason to play — among them TE Travis Kelce, RB Isiah Pacheco, DE Chris Jones and OT Jawaan Taylor. That, of course, is why the visitors are getting 10.5 points. And that should be enough to cover. The Chiefs boast plenty of depth, and quarterback Carson Wentz is a veteran who knows what he’s doing under center.

I also have no faith in Denver to completely blow out any opponent. The Broncos’ Bo Nix-led offense has been impressive at times, but it isn’t a particularly explosive or reliable unit. It’s also worth noting that head coach Sean Payton’s squad has lost 2 games in a row, so the pressure is on as the Broncos try to avoid a late-season collapse that keeps them out of the playoffs. A grand total of 30 points were scored when these 2 division foes met earlier this season in Kansas City. If the rematch is anywhere close to as low scoring, it will be difficult for Denver to cover such a bloated spread. It isn’t with a ton of confidence given the uncertainty of the Chiefs’ player personnel for this contest, but they should be able to keep the game within 10.

Chiefs vs Broncos prediction: Chiefs +10.5 (-112) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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It’s obvious that Patrick Mahomes’ absence entirely changes Kansas City’s offense. Isiah Pacheco and Travis Kelce being out would hurt, as well — especially since the veteran tight end has heated up a bit during the second half of the season. I think an Under play correlates nicely with Chiefs +10.5, as they probably won’t be able to keep up if this turns into an offensive shootout. The visitors should be able to succeed in making it a grind. Carson Wentz will lead a ball-control offense and the defense is stout even without Jones. Meanwhile, Denver is better defensively than it is on offense. The Broncos rank 8th in the NFL against the run and they are also 8th in yards per pass attempt allowed. They lead the entire league with 58 sacks, too. If the Chiefs cover, it’s likely because they put the clamps down defensively — not because they are putting a ton of points on the board. I like the Under here.

Chiefs vs Broncos prediction: Under 40 (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This is a bet that may be overlooked on Sunday. Denver is one of the few teams with something to play for, where a victory will secure them a spot in the playoffs. Mims is trending upwards with his snap count and production. He has 3+ receptions in 5 straight games and is coming off a season-high 8 receptions last week against the Bengals. Kansas City is their opponent here and will be resting starters but should be somewhat serviceable still to keep Denver passing. I really think Denver comes out not just looking to win, but looking to make a statement that they should be taken seriously in the playoffs. Mims is talented and 3 catches feels too low for him here, so let’s drink the juice.

Week 18 of the NFL season is one that often gives us plenty of chaos, and plenty of results are tied to other results that will have already occurred. That is partly what I’ll be targeting with my prediction on this AFC West showdown between the Chargers and Raiders in Las Vegas on Sunday. Los Angeles is currently in a battle for imperative seeding in the AFC playoff picture, with the Chargers fighting with the Pittsburgh Steelers for the right to be the #5 seed and face the Houston Texans in the Wild Card round. This is just massive for Los Angeles, as Jim Harbaugh’s team would likely be favored over the Texans in a potential matchup next week, while the alternative would be traveling to play a red-hot Ravens team in what will be an extremely difficult task on the road. With that in mind, if the Steelers lose and the Chargers can still secure the 5th seed, I anticipate that they’ll play to win and would consider laying the points with Los Angeles in this game. However, that’s only if the Bengals win in Pittsburgh on Saturday.

I’m anticipating that Mike Tomlin’s team finally gets up off the mat following 3 straight losses, which means that the Steelers are very live to pull off the small upset over Cincinnati at home on Saturday. A Pittsburgh victory would make a Raiders money line wager at the current number a solid bet to place, as I’m of the opinion that the Chargers will choose to rest Justin Herbert and other key players in anticipation of a grueling playoff game in Baltimore next week. Therefore, I could see this line moving in the direction of Las Vegas in the hours before kickoff, giving us value on our Raiders ticket. And even if the Bengals win, this Las Vegas team is playing very well over the last couple of months, ranking inside the top 10 in EPA per play and success rate on defense since Week 11, while Aidan O’Connell has done a nice job of finding Brock Bowers and feeding the rookie tight end early and often to spearhead this offense. The Raiders haven’t quit on the season at all, having won their last 2 games, so let’s back Las Vegas to pull off the outright upset and hope that we grab some value with this number.

Chargers vs Raiders prediction: Raiders ML (+184) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number with a Steelers loss; playable down to +150 with a Steelers win.

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Regardless of which Chargers team shows up on Sunday, I’d lean toward taking the Under at the current number. As previously mentioned, Las Vegas’ defense has been one of the more underrated units in the league over the past 2 months, ranking inside the top 10 in EPA per play and success rate allowed. It’s not as if the Chargers are an offense that is going to push the ball downfield much, and if Pittsburgh does lose, I expect Harbaugh to lean on a game plan that involves plenty of power football and a focus on limiting any potential mistakes. With the Chargers just needing a win and not worrying about margin, that plan should be music to the ears of a Raiders defense that is 7th in EPA per rush allowed on the season (compared to 28th in EPA per pass). On the other side, the Chargers’ defense has struggled with very good offenses in recent weeks, but Los Angeles has been excellent all season long against average and below-average units. That’s exactly what we’re getting here with the Raiders, so let’s take the Under in Las Vegas.

Chargers vs Raiders prediction: Under 41.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 41.

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The Miami Dolphins will be hoping to secure the final playoff spot in the AFC when they visit the New York Jets on Sunday afternoon. You are always going to see some wacky spreads in the last week of the NFL regular season with some teams already in the playoffs, other teams out and still others in limbo. This matchup has one squad that is still alive (Miami) and another that has long since been eliminated (New York), but it is priced as pretty much an even matchup — mainly because Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is out and Snoop Huntley will get the start. For me that creates a lot of value on the Fins.

Even without Tagovailoa, Miami is by far the superior — and also much more motivated — team. The Dolphins get in with a win and a loss by the Denver Broncos to the Kansas City Chiefs. The latter is unlikely since Kansas City has already clinched the #1 seed and can rest its starters, but Miami should at least hold up its end of the bargain. Head coach Mike McDaniel’s club has played well throughout the second half of the season, compiling a 6-2 record in its last 8 contests. It has outscored its last 2 opponents — the San Francisco 49ers and Cleveland Browns — by a combined 49-20 margin.

As for the 4-12 Jets, they stink. They fell to the Buffalo Bills 40-14 last weekend and have scored a total of 23 points in their 2 most recent outings. Aaron Rodgers enjoyed a brief rise in form in late November and early December, but he was bad against Buffalo and his motivation is clearly gone. Everyone on the New York roster is just ready to hit the links while securing a high draft pick in 2025. Regardless of Tagovailoa’s status, Miami should be poised to take advantage.

Dolphins vs Jets prediction: Dolphins -1 (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable to -3.

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It’s hard to back the over in any game involving the Jets these days, even with the total set under 40. Aaron Rodgers has been reduced to 1 touchdown pass and 2 interceptions over the past 2 contests, and he threw for an anemic 112 yards during last week’s loss to Buffalo. New York was bad even when it was motivated, and now it looks like a disinterested team that is ready to go on vacation. On the other side of the ball, Miami is without Tua Tagovailoa while WR Jaylen Waddle and OT Terron Armstead are questionable. Snoop Huntley is a serviceable backup, but he’s nothing special. In 3 full games this season and parts of another, he has passed for only 602 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Dolphins are coming off a 20-3 slog against Cleveland. Although this game may not be as ugly as that one, something relatively similar could be in the cards. Cold and windy conditions won’t be terrible, but they also won’t help. It’s a slight lean to the Under for me.

Dolphins vs Jets prediction: Under 39.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The market initially listed the Rams as short favorites in this game, with the thinking that Los Angeles would play to win and secure a more favorable seed in the NFC playoff picture. However, Sean McVay announced that none of the Rams’ key starters will play on Sunday, and the odds have heavily shifted toward Seattle as a result. Even at this current number, I can still only lean toward the Seahawks in this game. Geno Smith has a number of incentives in this final week, and I suspect that he’ll be able to hit these marks against a Rams defense that will be weaker than usual. Additionally, Seattle getting to 10 wins in Mike Macdonald’s first season as a head coach would be a significant accomplishment for this staff, even though the Seahawks won’t make the playoffs in a loaded NFC. With all of that in mind, expect Seattle to put forward its best effort against its division rival on Sunday.

As for the Rams, we know that Jimmy Garoppolo will be starting for Los Angeles at quarterback, which should produce a baseline level of competency at the very least. The problem for McVay’s offense lies within the wide receiver room, as both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are expected to be out. Therefore, I just can’t see the Rams’ offense having much success against a solid Seattle secondary. This is an extremely top-heavy roster on both sides of the ball, which could be an issue against a more talented Seahawks team as the game goes on. Let’s lay the points with Seattle.

Seahawks vs Rams prediction: Seahawks -6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This is a game where there is a lot of variance on both spread and total, and while I would usually look toward the over in a game between these teams and coaching staffs, I can’t get there given the situation for both sides. After all, there’s a reason that this total has dropped by 4 points since it opened at 43. Seattle should certainly be playing to finish its season strong, but this Rams offense could be in a world of trouble against a Seahawks pass defense that is 9th in passing yards allowed, 11th in EPA per pass allowed and 4th in opponent average depth of target. If Jimmy Garoppolo is unable to push the ball downfield, it could be a long day for the Los Angeles passing attack with its lack of difference-makers on the outside. Let’s take the Under at this number while we still can.

Seahawks vs Rams prediction: Under 39 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 38.5.

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The 49ers showed some fighting spirit in their narrow 40-34 loss to the Lions on Monday Night Football last week, but it came at a price as quarterback Brock Purdy exited towards the end of the game with an injured elbow. With nothing to play for, it is unlikely that Purdy will suit up for this game, but even with that in mind, San Francisco should have a decent shot at covering this spread. Last season’s superstar backup Josh Dobbs came in for Purdy last week and put in a decent showing in his sole drive, completing 3 of 4 passes for 35 yards before running the ball in for a touchdown. Rookie receiver Ricky Pearsall had a great game with 141 yards and a touchdown, while George Kittle also reached triple digits in yardage. This 49ers team should continue to play hard in the final game of the season and the offense can do some damage against a defense that ranks in the bottom 10 in passing yards per attempt allowed and 5th-worst in opponent completion percentage.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals were thwarted by the Rams last Saturday to secure the NFC West title for LA. Arizona played hard on offense with Kyler Murray connecting with Trey McBride for 12 receptions, 123 yards and a touchdown. However, the Cards have still lost 5 of their last 6 games, and their only victories since the start of November have come over the lowly Bears, Jets and Patriots. Even with Purdy out, it’s a lot to ask for this Arizona team to cover this spread, especially with running back James Conner ruled out and against a 49ers defense that allows the 4th-fewest passing yards per attempt. The Niners look a solid underdog in this one.

49ers vs Cardinals prediction: 49ers +4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Oddsmakers have given this game a fairly low total, likely because of Brock Purdy’s suspected absence and James Conner being ruled out, but we should still see some points in this one. San Francisco just contested a 74-point shootout with Detroit and Josh Dobbs proved that he is capable of moving the chains with this offense when he came in for Purdy. Ricky Pearsall will no doubt be motivated to build on his career-best performance last week and Isaac Guerendo can penetrate a Cardinals defense that allows the 9th-most yards per carry. Arizona’s defense ranks low in a lot of metrics and just 2 weeks ago allowed the Panthers to score 36 points.

As for the 49ers, their defense has leaked 29 and 40 points in their last 2 games and despite the Cardinals scoring just 9 points against the Rams, Kyler Murray posted 321 passing yards. San Francisco has allowed the 2nd-most rushing touchdowns this season and could be vulnerable to Michael Carter on the ground. 4 of Arizona’s last 5 games have gone over this number, while 13 of San Fran’s last 14 games have seen at least 43 points scored. Purdy and Conner’s absence does raise questions, but this number still feels too low.

49ers vs Cardinals prediction: Over 43 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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By now there’s not much we can tell you about these 2 teams that you don’t already know. The fact that the NFC North features 2 programs with 13+ wins, both vying for the NFC’s #1 seed, and that they get to battle on Sunday night in the final matchup of the season is beyond perfect for NFL fans. Even better, it’s the first time in NFL history that two 13+ win teams face off in the regular season. Get your popcorn ready! While it’s inarguable is that both programs are elite and we’d be remiss not to revisit their first meeting. In Week 7, Detroit traveled to US Bank Stadium and left the victor, but it was a very even contest. Just look at some of the box-score stats:

• Total yards– MIN: 383, DET: 391
• First downs– MIN: 16, DET: 19
• Yards per play– MIN: 7.4, DET: 7.0
• Passing yards– MIN: 244, DET: 247
• Rushing yards– MIN: 139, DET: 144
• Penalties– MIN: 8 for 59 yards, DET: 8 for 49 yards
• Turnovers– MIN: 1, DET: 1
• Time of possession: MIN: 30:57, DET: 29:03

The reality is, Detroit simply managed the game better at the end of regulation and the Minnesota defense couldn’t stop them. Jared Goff and company conducted a masterful drive, 8 plays, 44 yards with just over 2 minutes left, running the clock down to 0:15 when Jake Bates hit what would become the game-winning field goal. Detroit also stopped Minnesota in their prior drive, forcing a three-and-out to give their offense a chance to win the game. Goff and company followed suit.

If we were to glean one clear difference from these two teams, it’s that the Lions have been in these big-game situations more than the Vikings have. That experience matters in these pivotal moments. Sam Darnold has had an amazing year, MVP-worthy by many standards (4,153 passing yards, 35 touchdowns, 12 interceptions), but he hasn’t been in as many of these situations as his opposition. Jared Goff took the Rams to the Super Bowl before he ever got traded to Detroit, and the Lions held a 24-7 first-half lead against the 49ers in last year’s NFC Championship game. They probably should have won. In any case, big-game experience matters, and at this juncture, the Lions have been one of the NFL’s premier Super Bowl contenders for 2 seasons and running. They’re also at home, where they can utilize the energy of their fans for an extra edge when the going gets tough. This is a tough handicap no matter what way we look at it, the spread is very accurate, but we just simply cannot pick against the Lions at home in these scenarios.

Vikings vs Lions prediction: Lions -2.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Even though this is one of the biggest regular-season games in NFL history, evidently oddsmakers don’t think nerves are a part of these pivotal showdowns. A 56-point total (it was up to 57 at some sportsbooks) is wildly high, and it’s also hard to refute. The Lions’ offensive ranks are akin to the “greatest show on turf” – 1st in points per game, 2nd in yards per game, 2nd in points per play, 4th on third downs, 5th on fourth downs and 1st in touchdowns per game. No significant statistic is below a top-10 rating in their running or passing attack, and everyone knows that Detroit has one of the best offensive lines in the league. 

On the other side, the Vikings are similar, but not quite as elite. The Vikings are 9th in points per game, 12th in yards per game, 8th in points per play, 11th on third downs, 13th on fourth downs and 9th in touchdowns per game. Their passing game is clearly better than their efforts on the ground (the Vikings only average 4 yards per carry, ranked 29th), but we doubt that would matter much anyway. Detroit is one of the best defenses against the run all season (3rd in opponent rush yards per game). Regardless of what the full-season stats say, Darnold and the Vikings have evolved and improved consistently over the past 4 months. In their past 5 matchups, all against above-average defenses, the Vikings averaged 30 points per game.

Everything suggests that a ton of points are incoming, again, but we’re hitting the pause button. A number like 56 suggests that both offenses will have little to no issue constantly scoring, a conclusion we cannot agree with. The Lions’ offense is the most consistent unit on the field, but the Vikings’ defense has been relentless and aggressive and, unlike the Lions, they’re healthy heading into Sunday night. Add the inevitable pressure that comes with this massive game and both defenses will have an inherent advantage. On top of that, Minnesota games have only eclipsed this number 4 times this season. The Lions have eclipsed this number 7 times, but they were all against lackluster defenses at not-so-pivotal moments. With such high stakes on the line, we’ll go contrarian.

Vikings vs Lions prediction: Under 56 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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