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AFC South action here in the final week of the regular season as the Indianapolis Colts get ready to host the Jacksonville Jaguars. With Anthony Richardson missing practice again this week with his back injury, it looks like it’s going to be Joe Flacco under center for the Colts to close it out. And with how erratic Richardson has been, that’s probably for the best here. Flacco hasn’t been spectacular but he’s been solid, averaging 7.2 yards per attempt with 11 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. And his 2 worst games which skew those numbers came against elite Bills and Vikings teams in games where he had absolutely no chance. Outside of those games against 2 of the NFL’s best defenses, Flacco’s numbers actually look pretty good. And he’s in a much softer spot at home here against a Jags team that is just playing out the string.

Mac Jones is finishing the year in place of an injured Trevor Lawrence, and it hasn’t been great. Jones is incapable of pushing the ball down the field and is accordingly averaging just 6.3 yards per attempt, and he has more turnovers than touchdowns. Jacksonville is 2-7 in their last 9, and both of those wins were against the lowly 3-13 Titans. It’s been months since they beat a real team, and they haven’t done it without Lawrence. They’ve also been losing to some of the worst teams around during this stretch, as they’ve been beaten by both the Raiders and the Jets in the past few weeks, which is tough to do. In what seems likely to be the last game of the Doug Pederson era in Jacksonville, I don’t see any reason to back the underdog.

Jaguars vs Colts prediction: Colts -5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 6.5.

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The Washington Commanders and Dallas Cowboys face off on Sunday in Week 18, and while the Cowboys’ season is over, the Commanders are playing for playoff seeding in the NFC. Rookie QB Jayden Daniels has been fantastic for Washington all season, as he’s the frontrunner for Offensive Rookie of the Year and has led the Commanders to their first playoff appearance since 2021. He’s been red-hot since these teams last met, as Daniels has recorded 917 passing yards, 308 rushing yards, 14 total TDs and just 4 INTs in 4 games. The Cowboys upset the Commanders 34-26 in their Week 12 meeting, so I expect Washington to come back for revenge in this one.

It’s been a dismal season for Dallas, as they were just 3-5 when starting QB Dak Prescott announced he’d be out for the season due to hamstring surgery. Surprisingly, they’ve gone 4-4 since then, and backup QB Cooper Rush has more or less steadied the ship. However, the wheels completely fell off last week, as the Eagles dominated Dallas 41-7 and Rush completed just 50.7% of his passes for 147 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs. Eagles third-string QB Tanner McKee even came in and threw for 54 yards and 2 TDs, so this Dallas team has very little life remaining.

As I stated above, Dallas took down Washington in Week 12 when they were 10.5-point underdogs. Since then, the Commanders are 4-1 against the spread and have scored 32.0 ppg. Additionally, the Cowboys have been awful at AT&T Stadium this year, as they’re just 2-6 ATS at home in 2024-25 and have gone 2-8 ATS at home in their last 10 games. The Commanders secure a Wild Card matchup with the Rams or Buccaneers/Falcons (instead of the Eagles) with a victory on Sunday, so I expect them to give it their all and secure a 7+ point win.

Commanders vs Cowboys prediction: Washington -4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable up to 6 (-110).

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The Miami Dolphins will be hoping to secure the final playoff spot in the AFC when they visit the New York Jets on Sunday afternoon. You are always going to see some wacky spreads in the last week of the NFL regular season with some teams already in the playoffs, other teams out and still others in limbo. This matchup has one squad that is still alive (Miami) and another that has long since been eliminated (New York), but it is priced as pretty much an even matchup — mainly because Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is out and Snoop Huntley will get the start. For me that creates a lot of value on the Fins.

Even without Tagovailoa, Miami is by far the superior — and also much more motivated — team. The Dolphins get in with a win and a loss by the Denver Broncos to the Kansas City Chiefs. The latter is unlikely since Kansas City has already clinched the #1 seed and can rest its starters, but Miami should at least hold up its end of the bargain. Head coach Mike McDaniel’s club has played well throughout the second half of the season, compiling a 6-2 record in its last 8 contests. It has outscored its last 2 opponents — the San Francisco 49ers and Cleveland Browns — by a combined 49-20 margin.

As for the 4-12 Jets, they stink. They fell to the Buffalo Bills 40-14 last weekend and have scored a total of 23 points in their 2 most recent outings. Aaron Rodgers enjoyed a brief rise in form in late November and early December, but he was bad against Buffalo and his motivation is clearly gone. Everyone on the New York roster is just ready to hit the links while securing a high draft pick in 2025. Regardless of Tagovailoa’s status, Miami should be poised to take advantage.

Dolphins vs Jets prediction: Dolphins -1 (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable to -3.

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