Matt Selz
Show Bio
As if Texas wasn’t chaotic enough, now we get Talladega on Sunday! The largest track on the schedule also produces the largest wrecks on the schedule. It’s just a product of the racing, as they say. With all of the cars racing together in a pack, we’re always in store for some craziness to unfold. So how do we come up with betting strategies for the YellaWood 500 then? Keep reading, and we’ll talk about that.
Betting Strategies for YellaWood 500
Get ready for chaos. That’s what we always say when it comes to tracks like Daytona and Talladega, and now Atlanta. This is a place where anyone can win — or at least that’s what’s thought. That’s not entirely true. In the last 24 races here, 15 drivers have won from inside the top-10 starting spots. Eight of those have been inside the top five. Recently, as in the last two races, the winner has come from P19. However, outside of one winner from P34, P19 is the furthest back a winner has come from here in the last 24 trips to the Alabama Superspeedway. If we’re talking top-10 bets, we want drivers that have been consistently good plate racers and then sprinkle in one or two drivers starting from the back that we’re hoping just avoid the big ones, aka wrecks.
YellaWood 500 outright winner picks
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
Ryan Blaney (+1200)
Blaney has won here twice in the last six races. He’s also been in a position to win each of the last four Daytona races. That’s enough consistency for me to bet on him at an unpredictable race like these. The team he drives for, Team Penske, has long been known as the kings of plate tracks with their setups and driver lineup, and Blaney has been a big part of that. Knowing that he has a shot to clinch a spot in the Round of 8 with a win here should be extra motivation to do well.
Bubba Wallace (+1800)
Wallace is one of the best plate racers in the field and won this race a year ago. He’s been in contention a few times in the most recent plate races. I know that basing bets off of ephemera isn’t usually the best idea, but for Wallace, he tends to draw motivation from things like that. This week a NASCAR report posted the results of a poll that based positive or negative feelings about a driver based on the tweets about them. Wallace was easily the most negatively thought about driver. That should give Wallace some extra motivation.
Brad Keselowski (+2000)
Keselowski is widely regarded as one of the better plate racers in the field and has been for a while. If we take a look at his record, though, most of his success has come at Talladega, where he’s the active leader in wins at the track. Keselowski and the 6-car team have been getting faster more consistently as the year has gone on. Combine the most consistent runs with Kes’ history here, and we’ve got a serious threat.
Aric Almirola (+4000)
Almirola is always a sneaky threat at plate tracks. The odds tell you that once again. He’s finished P13 or better and two-thirds of the plate races this year, including a P8 at Daytona. Previously here, he’s won and has been leading the last lap a few different times between Daytona and Talladega before ultimately throwing an ill-timed block. If he learns from his previous mistakes, we could very well see the 10-car in victory lane.
Justin Haley (+5000)
Haley is nothing if not a plate race winner. He’s won a ton in the Xfinity Series, one in the Cup Series, and is always toward the front of the pack when it matters late. These odds don’t make a ton of sense to me for a driver with the history at the tracks that Haley has and how good of a rookie year he’s had in general, let alone at these tracks.
Best Prop Bets for YellaWood 500
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
Erik Jones Top-10 Finish (+130)
The odds on Jones are 13/10 in the fractional odds. That means they’re giving Jones a 43.4% chance to finish in the top 10. In the last six Talladega races, Jones has four top-10s. He’s one of only three drivers with that number. So Jones has pulled off this feat two-thirds, or 66%, of the time, including finishing P6 at ‘Dega earlier this year.
Chase Elliott Top-5 Finish (+200)
Elliott, before the most recent Daytona race, was the only driver to finish top-10 in every plate race this year. He won at Atlanta and has a solid history at Talladega. Elliott is also in need of a very good run this weekend to improve his standings in the playoffs before going to the crazy race that is the Charlotte Roval a week from now.
Justin Haley Top-10 Finish (+1000)
I like to hedge long-shot bets with a finish bet like this. If Haley wins, great, if not, at least we’re getting a 10-1 return on a top-10 finish. We saw at the last Daytona race that being on the track gives you a shot at a top-10 finish, and that’s the same this week at Talladega. Nearly two-thirds of the drivers in the field this week have top-10s here. While Haley isn’t one, he does have a P12 and P11 in his four races at the track.
Bubba Wallace Top Toyota (+400)
We’ve long been fans of betting the Top Toyota odds simply because there are only six on the track at any one time. That gives each driver a 16.6% chance, theoretically, of being the top car. Now, we get him at 4-to-1 odds for that to happen at his best racing discipline, at a track he’s won at before. He doesn’t even have to finish high, he simply has to best five other cars. That is a lot more appealing than a Ford or a Chevy bet where they’ll have to beat a dozen cars each.
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