March Madness has taken center stage in the sports world right now, but there’s still plenty of solid XFL action to watch and bet on this weekend. The best matchup of the weekend is on Saturday night, as the undefeated DC Defenders take on the St. Louis Battlehawks, and later in the night is a battle of the winless teams as the Orlando Guardians face the Vegas Vipers. Sunday’s lone game features the Arlington Renegades against the Antonio Brahmas, and I have taken a pick from each game this weekend to create a mega parlay.
Along with our XFL Week 5 predictions, here is my mega parlay that pays out at over 10/1 odds at Bet365 Sportsbook.
Battlehawks ML (+110)
Guardians/Vipers alternate total under 38.5 (+150)
Brahmas alternate spread -4.5 (+110)
Parlay odds: +1002
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St. Louis Battlehawks ML (+110) over DC Defenders
The Defenders are the last undefeated team remaining. The Roughnecks were the only other 4-0 team entering Week 5 and they lost 21-14 to the Sea Dragons on Thursday. That leaves only the Defenders without a loss, but I think that will change on Saturday. These teams faced off in a thrilling Week 3 matchup in which DC came out on top, 34-28. Both teams stuck with their guns in that matchup as the Defenders continued to pound teams on the ground while the Battlehawks relied on AJ McCarron through their air. DC has been the best rushing team in the XFL by far, having compiled 622 rushing yards through the first 4 weeks of the season. The team with the second-most rushing yards is the Sea Dragons at 462, and they have played one more game than the Defenders — which demonstrates how dominant DC has been on their ground.
St. Louis wasn’t able to fill the gaps at the line of scrimmage in Week 3 against the Defenders, but I would expect this team to be more prepared for the DC offense and run whenever possible. And if there’s one quarterback that I would want to back right now, it’s McCarron. His experience has proven to be an advantage in the XFL, and with this game being played in St. Louis — which has been the best crowd in the league so far — I’ll back the home underdogs.
Check out our DC Defenders vs St. Louis Battlehawks predictions
Orlando Guardians vs Vegas Vipers under 38.5 (+150)
There is no reason for this game total to be above 40, but that’s where it sits heading into Week 5. The Guardians have been the worst team in the XFL by a mile, but they are joined by the Vipers as the only teams without a win. They got their teeth kicked in during Week 4, losing 44-16 — the largest defeat in the league this season. Paxton Lynch has been terrible for the Guardians, but they don’t have anyone better. Lynch has totaled 690 yards while throwing just 4 touchdowns and 1 interception through 4 weeks and is leading Orlando to the award of least competent offense in the XFL. Orlando has totaled 12, 12, 9 and 16 points this season, so I would estimate the ceiling to be about 17 points.
That leaves 20 or so points for the Vipers to score, and they have scored more than 20 points just once this year. Vegas alternates between Luis Perez and Brett Hundley at quarterback, and neither possesses the ability to lead a powerful offense. Perez is plagued by turnovers and Hundley has found the endzone just twice in 3 games. I see a 20-14 game on Saturday night, so I’m backing the alternate total under.
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San Antonio Brahmas -4.5 (+110) over Arlington Renegades
The Renegades might not be winless like the Guardians or Vipers, but Arlington’s offense isn’t much better. Through the first 4 weeks, the Renegades have scored just 4 touchdowns. Even the Guardians, who have been a complete disaster, have found the endzone 7 times. The Renegades started the season strong with a 22-20 win over the Vipers and slowly started to crumble after that. They got beat by the Roughnecks in Week 2, escaped with a 10-9 victory over the Guardians in Week 3 and then lost to the Battlehawks 24-11 last week. In the last 2 weeks Arlington has scored only 21 points with 420 total yards.
The Renegades’ quarterback situation is troubling; Kyle Sloter and Drew Plitt have struggled in their opportunities on the field, and they don’t have a solid running back they can rely on. De’Veon Smith leads the team with 129 rushing yards through 4 games, and he’s the only Renegade in the top 26 in rushing yards. Even AJ McCarron and Paxton Lynch have more rushing yards than the second-leading rusher on Arlington, and those guys aren’t exactly known for their speed. The Brahmas have quietly played solid football, and their 1-3 record does not accurately reflect how San Antonio has performed. They’ve had a tough opening schedule as they’ve already faced the Roughnecks, Battlehawks, Sea Dragons and Guardians. This game provides them with the opportunity to get back into the win column.
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