The 2023 XFL season kicks off on Saturday afternoon with a crunch game between the Vegas Vipers and Arlington Renegades. Both will no doubt want to hit the ground running and that should turn this one into a thrilling game of football. But who will get their first win on the board? Our XFL expert has picks, predictions and best bets for this huge Vipers vs Renegades game, so let’s dive in.
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Vegas Vipers vs Arlington Renegades prediction
This will be the first competitive game these teams have both played, since the last time we saw XFL action was back in 2020 before the COVID-19 pandemic. That could cause them to start a little slow, but it’s the Vipers who feel like they have more upside with the likes of Geronimo Allison and Martavis Bryant at wideout.
Vegas Vipers vs Arlington Renegades spread, odds & betting lines
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Point Spread: Vipers +3.5, Renegades -3.5
Total Points Over/Under: 36.5 points
Money Line Odds: Vipers +145, Renegades -170
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Vegas Vipers vs Arlington Renegades expert picks
We’ve got 2 standout XFL picks for this weekend’s game between the Vegas Vipers and Arlington Renegades.
Vipers vs Renegades point spread pick: Vipers +3.5 (-110)
The Vegas Vipers take on the Arlington Renegades at Choctaw Stadium (formerly GlobeLife Field). Both of these teams are from the former XFL but are looking for their first win in the new league. The Vipers have some recognizable names like Martavius Bryant, Geronimo Allison and Vic Beasley. Bryant had decent numbers in the NFL and had 145 receptions for over 2.000 yards. He was considered a decent player but violated the NFL’s substance abuse policy multiple times and was considered a risk by NFL teams.
Allison was promoted to a starting wide receiver when Aaron Rodgers was throwing to him and the rest of the Packers were injured but has never started on any other NFL team. Vic Beasley had a 6-year NFL career and led the league in sacks, forced fumbles and fumbles returned for a touchdown in his second year in the league. The Vipers are coached by Rod Woodson.
The Renegades don’t have the recognizable names that the Vipers do, but they do have one thing that no other XFL team has, a head coach who has previously coached the XFL. Bob Stoops was the only coach retained from the 2020 XFL season. He is also the only head coach with an NCAA national championship. The Renegades finished with a 2-3 record in 2020 under Stoops and lacked offense in all their losses.
As far as handicapping this game, DraftKings has 53% of the bets on the Vegas Vipers. This is probably due to the recognizable names on the Vipers, and because of the lack of home-field advantage for these teams. Both of these teams play in a city that already has an NFL team, and neither is going to have a loyal fanbase to start the season.
The extra points rules in the XFL are as follows: touchdowns are worth 6 points and teams can choose to go for a 1-point play from the 2-yard line, 2-point play from the 5-yard line or a 3-point play from the 10-yard line. Teams cannot kick for an extra point like in the NFL. The total is set at 37, which means offense is going to be a premium. With no true home-field advantage and teams struggling to score, I predict this will be a close game, and both the Vipers and Renegades will opt for the 1 or 2 extra point play and keep this game within the number.
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Vipers vs Renegades Over/Under totals pick: Under 36.5 (-110)
The total for this game is set at 37. All 4 games for the opening weekend of the XFL are set around that number, with this being the highest total of the weekend. With this being the opening weekend, and with teams still learning to play together, the offense is going to look rusty. Veteran NFL player Vic Beasley will be leading the Vipers unit and is looking to keep the Renegades off the field.
Although this is a different team than the 2020 season, the Renegades still have the same coach. Arlington didn’t score more than 25 points in a game in 2020, and I expect less than that in this matchup. Take the under in the first game of the new season.
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