The time has come for the XFL Championship game. Overall, it was a successful return of the XFL. The final 2 teams remaining are the Arlington Renegades (4-6) and the DC Defenders (9-1), and to no surprise, the Renegades are the heavy favorites. With such a big game on deck, we have 2 picks for the big game.
Our XFL expert has picks, predictions and best bets for this Renegades vs Defenders matchup, so let’s dive in.
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Arlington Renegades vs DC Defenders prediction
If you’ve been watching the XFL this season, you would know how dominant the Defenders were. They had only 1 loss in the season and their powerful offense and excellent defense shot them to the top of the league. As for the Renegades, they’re lucky to be in this spot. They were not as dominant as the Defenders by any means and managed to win only 4 games. But it’s the Championship game, and anything can happen.
Arlington Renegades vs DC Defenders spread, odds & betting lines
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Point Spread: Renegades +6.5, Defenders -6.5
Total Points Over/Under: 48 points
Money Line Odds: Renegades +240, Defenders -285
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Arlington Renegades vs DC Defenders expert picks
We have 2 XFL picks for this weekend’s game between the Arlington Renegades and DC Defenders.
Renegades vs Defenders point spread pick: Defenders -6.5 (-110)
Well, we made it. The final game of the XFL campaign is upon us, and it’s been a heck of a season so far. The Arlington Renegades and DC Defenders will square off here in the championship game, and oddsmakers have DC as a -6.5 favorite here. For a few reasons, I’m laying the points with the Defenders. DC has been the best team in the league all season, while Arlington is lucky just to be here. The Renegades went just 4-6 in the regular season and only made the playoffs because they finished in second place in the terrible South division. They got past Houston in the first round, but in their last regular season game, they only put up 9 points in a blowout loss.
Arlington is starting Luis Perez at quarterback, who started the year with the Vegas Vipers. I don’t care how well he played in the first round, when your starting quarterback is somebody another team cut at midseason for poor performance, your offense likely isn’t in too good of shape. The Renegades scored the fewest points of any team in the XFL this season, and it wasn’t particularly close. They only scored 146 across 10 games, and the next lowest was 169. Their -48 point differential was the 3rd-worst mark in the league, ahead of only the 2-8 Vipers and 1-9 Guardians. DC, on the other hand was pretty much a juggernaut, going 9-1 in the regular season before beating Seattle by 16 in the first round of the playoffs. Their offense is elite, and Jordan Ta’amu has been very protective of the football for the most part.
Renegades vs Defenders Over/Under totals pick: Over 48 (-110)
The over also makes some sense here, as both offenses looked great in the first round of the playoffs. I’m still not totally sold on Arlington’s offense, but one thing is undeniable. They’re a lot better with Luis Perez under center than they were with Drew Plitt or Kyle Sloter earlier in the year. Perez averaged 10.7 yards per attempt with 3 touchdowns in the first round while Arlington put up 26 points on Houston. Meanwhile, DC dropped 37 in their opening postseason game. They averaged just about 30 points per game during the regular season (29.8), and were incredibly consistent with moving the ball.
Each of their past 6 games have seen at least 54 total points scored, including when these teams played each other back in Week 8, so I expect their to be more fireworks here. There haven’t been less than 48 total points scored in a Defenders game since all the way back in Week 2, so it would be a pretty big aberration here for this one to come in under the total.
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