Ricky Dimon
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The Xfinity 500, not to be confused with the Xfinity Series, is the last chance for 2022 NASCAR playoff drivers to punch their tickets to the championship race. That means we can expect some tight racing as the laps wind down on the race on Sunday — including plenty of bump and runs happening, too. We wouldn’t expect anything less from Martinsville, would we?
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Martinsville track layout and betting strategy
The Paperclip as it’s colloquially known, is a tight, short track that’s just over a half-mile in length per lap. It’s also flat in the corners and on the proportionally long straights. That means an awful lot of braking happening during the race. A race that’s 500 laps in length. That gives a lot of time for things to happen, even if they are clicking off laps in well-under 20 seconds a circuit. What we saw here earlier in the year was a race in which track position was absolutely vital to having a shot at competing for the win. There was basically no passing in the race, unless a mistake happened on pit road or a driver had a bad restart. That means that drivers can click off a couple hundred laps out front pretty easily throughout the day. For prop bets, qualifying is going to be a strong determiner of just how a driver finishes the race — assuming it’s a clean race. The Fords have been faster on the shorter, flatter tracks this year in general, while Toyotas have also been fast in spurts.
Xfinity 500 outright winners
Odds available DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Ryan Blaney (+800)
While it hasn’t been the most fruitful year for Blaney, he is still in the hunt for a spot in the title race — despite not having won a race this year. That being said, he does have a lot of good finishes, especially at this type of track. Over the course of eight, shorter, flatter tracks this year he is the driver with the best average finish (6.8) of anyone in the field. That has to mean something, right? If he can be in the hunt late again, there is no reason to think he won’t do what is necessary to win on Sunday.
Joey Logano (+900)
Logano is the only driver in the field who is officially locked in to the title race next week. That was by virtue of a win at Vegas. While he doesn’t need a win, it does help him to get one as it’ll force every other driver to point their way into the race at Phoenix, thus making them fight hard for every spot on the track. In terms of track history here, he has won at Martinsville recently, and this year at similar flat tracks he has posted the third-best average finish in the field (9.8). That includes a win at Gateway — where it was nearly impossible to pass.
Ross Chastain (+1200)
The watermelon farmer is 1 good race away from fighting for a Cup Series title at Phoenix. What easier way to make it a good race than to win it? While he has been aggressive when behind the wheel this year — especially on this style of track (and that has ticked off some fellow drivers) — this could be the race he capitalizes on aggressiveness. He posted a P2 at Phoenix, a P5 at Martinsville and led 80 laps at Richmond earlier this year — all tracks on which it is tough to pass. He also ran inside the top 10 all race long at Gateway. If he can avoid Denny Hamlin — and potentially Chase Elliott — he can have a shot to win on Sunday.
Longshot: Austin Dillon (+4000)
Every race needs a long shot right? Well, this is ours for Sunday. We have spent the entire article talking about how it has been hard to pass on short tracks with the NextGen car this year right? Well, Dillon is one of the drivers who has figured out how to pass at these tracks. Among drivers who have run at least 5 of the 8 similar tracks to Martinsville this year, Dillon ranks second in average position differential. In fact, in the first Martinsville race this year he started P23 and finished P3 and the week before at Richmond he went from P25 to P10. The 3-car has been quick in Green Flag Speed at these tracks and if he starts just a tad closer to the front he could challenge for a surprise win.
Best prop bets for Xfinity 500
*Saturday bet*: Ryan Blaney to win pole (+1000)
This one is simple. Blaney has posted the best average starting position over the 8 similar races this year. That includes him starting on the pole twice in Phoenix and Richmond. He will need all of the advantages he can get this weekend to try and make the championship and starting on the pole certainly will help.
Aric Almirola top-10 finish (+140)
This isn’t the safest of top-10 bets, but I still like getting the odds we are getting. The book on Almirola has always been play or bet him on short flat tracks and this one certainly fits that description. These odds (7/5) imply a 41.6% chance of a top 10 happening. This year, Almirola has finished top 10 in 3 of 8 races for a 37.5% occurrence rate. If we factor P12 or better, it has happened four times. That’s good enough for me at basically breakeven odds.
Austin Dillon top-10 finish (+150)
This is a classic example of hedging a bet. Dillon has been a strong contender at these tracks all year with 5 top 15s in the 8 similar races. I know top 10s and top 15s aren’t the same, but it does show he’s in the realm of hitting this bet often. If we harken back to the long shot bet, he did finish P3 here in the Spring and P10 at Richmond 1, as well.
Austin Cindric top-10 finish (+180)
Cindric has only 1 top 10 at this type of track this year — that’s true. However, he does have four top-12s, all of which have been in the last four races. The Team Penske Fords have been fast at these tracks this year, as well. Speaking of speed, he has moved up 15 spots a race in the last 3 flat-track events. Let’s also not forget he maybe called on late the race to make key passes to help his teammate Blaney point in to the title race.
Kyle Busch top Toyota (+500)
It has been a season to forget for Kyle Busch. He was knocked out of the playoffs early, kicked off of JGR after 15 years and lost his Crew Chief for the last 4 races of the year. What better way to cap things off by finishing as the highest Toyota in the field and keeping his soon-to-be-ex-teammates from advancing? Busch has had the highest average finish among Toyotas at this style of track this year and has been hot of late with 3 straight top 10s coming into Martinsville
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