Ricky Dimon
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It’s a huge week on the tennis calendar, with a total of 5 tournaments on the schedule – 2 women’s and 3 men’s. One of the WTA events (Dubai) is worth 1000 ranking points, making it the highest tier outside of Grand Slams. Meanwhile, the ATP tournament in Doha is one of the strongest at the 250 level. It includes Andrey Rublev, Felix Auger-Aliassime and Daniil Medvedev in the field.
Let’s take a look at the odds and my best bets.
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Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships odds
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Iga Swiatek +175
Aryna Sabalenka +400
Jessica Pegula +1100
Elena Rybakina +1200
Carolina Garcia +1800
Coco Gauff +1800
Belinda Bencic +2000
Maria Sakkari +2500
Veronika Kudermetova +2800
Barbora Krejcikova +2800
Beatriz Haddad Maia +3300
Victoria Azarenka +4000
Daniell Collins +4000
Petra Kvitova +4000
Jelena Ostapenko +4000
3-star value play: Jessica Pegula (+1100)
Iga Swiatek is a massive favorite, and for good reason after dominating her way to the Doha title this past week. However, I don’t see any value at +175 odds. As usual, though, I will focus on the other side of the bracket to find players who don’t have to face the world #1 early in the tournament. That’s where Pegula is, and she appears to have a favorable draw the whole way. The 3rd-seeded American’s nearest other seed is Belinda Bencic, who withdrew from Doha prior to the quarterfinals because of fatigue. Pegula is playing great and should continue her form this week.
2-star value play: Victoria Azarenka (+4000)
The draw sets up nicely enough for Azarenka, who finds herself in the top half but at least wouldn’t run into Swiatek until the semifinals. Azarenka reached the semis of the Australian Open before losing to eventual runner-up and 2022 Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina. The Belarusian fell to Bencic last week in Doha in a grueling 3-setter, and Bencic has been on fire. Look for Azarenka to capitalize on what is a good draw in the early rounds – and maybe Swiatek will either run out of gas in the semis or get upset earlier in the event.
1-star value play: Petra Kvitova (+4000)
How about a second Dubai title for Kvitova, exactly 10 years after her first one? Why not?!?! The 32-year-old Czech may not be in the prime of her career that carried her to 2 Wimbledon titles, but she is playing well and back up to #13 in the rankings. She has a perfect draw in which she would not face Pegula until the semis and Swiatek until the final. At +4000, this is outstanding value.
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Qatar ExxonMobil Open odds
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Daniil Medvedev +187
Andrey Rublev +550
Felix Auger-Aliassime +550
Alexander Zverev +650
Jiri Lehecka +1400
Andy Murray +1600
Roberto Bautista Agut +1800
Emil Ruusuvuori +2500
Dan Evans +2500
Botic van de Zandschulp +2800
Soonwoo Kwon +2800
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina +2800
3-star value play: Daniil Medvedev (+187)
Medvedev won the Rotterdam title on Sunday and that should send him off to the races. The former world #1 had been slumping, but he back in the top 10 following his Rotterdam performance – which is where he belongs. In fact, he should probably be back in the top 3 sooner rather than later. With momentum in hand, Medvedev has a great chance to go back-to-back. The field in Doha is not as strong as what was on display in Rotterdam, which is why the Russian’s odds (+187) are so short. Even as a heavy favorite, I’m tailing.
2-star value play: Andy Murray (+1600)
Murray hasn’t won a title since 2019, but he is knocking on the door. The 35-year-old Scot played great at the Australian Open, where playing best of 5 sets does not help from a physical standout on the heels of 2019 hip surgery. Playing best of 3, as the men do in Doha (and at all other events outside of Grand Slams) gives Murray a much better chance. The former world #1 has an extremely favorable draw on the opposite side from both Medvedev and Auger-Aliassime.
1-star value play: Jiri Lehecka (+1400)
Lehecka was one of the breakout stars of the Aussie Open, upsetting Auger-Aliassime on his way to the quarterfinals. The 21-year-old Czech has not lost to anyone ranked lower than #12 so far this season. He will be well rested heading into Doha, too, having taken time off since his run at Melbourne Park. Also in the top half of the bracket, Lehecka has an open path to hopefully meet Murray in the semis and perhaps go all the way to the title.
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