Ricky Dimon
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The U.S. Open is eight days away. But first – on the ATP Tour, at least – we have the Winston-Salem Open. The week immediately preceding any Grand Slam is always extremely difficult to handicap, because the most talented players almost never prevail. It’s all about identifying guys who will be motivated to put in a long, hard week right before a much more important tournament (in this case the U.S. Open) is about to begin. Spoiler alert: there aren’t many of them! Most players are more interested in making their way to New York for rest and practice in advance of the year’s final major. But who are the few and the proud who are willing to put it all on the line in Winston-Salem?
Let’s take look at the odds to win the Winston-Salem title and discuss the best bets to be made. It should be noted that the WTA Tour does not play this event, so there are no betting opportunities on the women’s side.
Winston-Salem odds to win
Here are the odds for the Winston-Salem Open men’s singles tournament, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Grigor Dimitrov +900
Botic van de Zandschulp +1200
Maxime Cressy +1400
Jack Draper +1400
Benjamin Bonzi +1400
David Goffin +1500
Ilya Ivashka +1600
Emil Ruusuvuori +1600
Thanasi Kokkinakis +1600
Holger Rune +2000
Adrian Mannarino +2200
Mikael Ymer +2500
Lorenzo Musetti +2500
Steve Johnson +2500
Richard Gasquet +2500
Dominic Thiem +2800ohnson +2500
Richard Gasquet +2500
Dominic Thiem +2800
3-star value play: Botic van de Zandschulp (+1200)
This week I am targeting players who are likely to be inspired at a small 250-point event (meaning 250 ranking points are awarded to the champion – compared to 2,000 at Grand Slams and 1,000 at Masters tournaments such as recent ones in Montreal and Cincinnati). I’m also looking at players who have favorable draws. Van de Zandschulp satisfies both requirements. At No. 24 in the world, the Dutchman is one of the best players on the ATP Tour who has never won a title. In a relatively weak field in which only one man (Grigor Dimitrov) is ranked ahead of him, this is one of Van de Zandschulp’s best opportunities. He is in a very soft section of the bracket, where most of the opposition is either more comfortable on clay or simply in dreadful form right now. The No. 2 seed should coast into the semis, and at that point there would be no reason – even with the U.S. Open looming – for him to not go all out and really try to finish off a title run. This sets up well for Van de Zandschulp…especially at +1200 odds.
2-star value play: Ilya Ivashka (+1500)
Ivashka won this tournament last year. That had no negative impact on his ensuing U.S. Open performance, either. If anything, it only enhanced his confidence. The Belarusian followed up his Winston-Salem triumph by reaching the third round at Flushing Meadows, losing to Matteo Berrettini in five sets. Ivashka already has one semifinal showing on American hard courts this summer (Atlanta), so he should be feeling good in advance of his Winston-Salem title defense. An opening-round bye as a seeded player and an all-around favorable draw also give Ivashka a great chance.
2-star value play: David Goffin (+1500)
Goffin’s North American hard-court summer has been a disappointment, but at least that means he is well-rested for the U.S. Open – and for Winston-Salem. A lot of early losses also means he will be eager to advance deep into the Winston-Salem tournament and get some matches under his belt in advance of the year’s final Grand Slam. The Belgian needs to pick up a few wins – maybe even six, which would take him to the title – in hopes of building some confidence going into New York. Goffin at least managed to qualify in Cincinnati and don’t forget that he was one set away from reaching the Wimbledon semifinals just last month. There is no reason why the world No. 62 can’t round back into form right now.
1-star value play: Dominic Thiem (+3000)
Thiem’s comeback from a year-long absence due to a wrist injury has been unspectacular at best after a couple of months, but at +3000 odds this is a shot well worth taking. The 2020 U.S. Open champion has shown some signs of recent life by winning some matches here and there, so seeing him finally put it all together this week and string a lot of wins together in a row would not be the craziest thing in the world. Thiem is obviously the most talented – and the downright best when healthy and in form – player in this field. He may also be the most motivated. The former world No. 3 is down at 228th in the rankings and needs every victory he can get as he tries to work his way back up to the top of the sport. Don’t be shocked if the comeback begins in earnest this week.
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