Ricky Dimon
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Well, it all comes down to this…
Ons Jabeur was my +900 three-star best bet before Wimbledon began and now she is one win away from taking the title. Standing in her way in the women’s singles championship match on Saturday is surprising finalist Elena Rybakina.
Below are my best bets for Day 13.
Ons Jabeur vs Elena Rybakina Over 21.5 games (-115)
I have no use for the Jabeur money line given my +900 outright on her. It may have been worth doubling down when she opened at -125 for the final and I definitely would have suggested a play on that number, but unsurprisingly that price has increased to -165. Jabeur on the money line is still a decent bet, but I like the over even more given how impressive Rybakina has been throughout the fortnight.
The 23-year-old Russian-turned-Kazakh has dropped only one set in six matches and she is coming off a 6-3, 6-3 rout of 2019 Wimbledon champion Simona Halep. Rybakina can most definitely be competitive on Saturday afternoon. There have been two completed matches between Jabeur and Rybakina in the past and both went to three sets; Rybakina won 6-1, 6-7(3), 6-2 in 2019 before Jabeur prevailed 7-6(6), 4-6, 6-2 in 2021 (both on hard courts).
At least one tiebreaker in the match (+175)
Getting this at +175 is just way too good to pass up. Three of Rybakina’s six matches have featured a tiebreaker, which is no surprise considering that she wields one of the biggest serves on tour. She doesn’t get broken a whole lot – especially not on grass. Jabeur has played only one tiebreaker (in the fourth round against Elise Mertens), but both her quarterfinal and semifinal matches went to three sets. It’s not like she is dominating opponents. Expect competitiveness from start to finish, to the extent that at least one tiebreaker is required.
Elena Rybakina -0.5 double-faults (-140)
Rybakina finishing with at least one more double-fault than Jabeur should be a safe bet. So far in this tournament Rybakina has 15 double-faults and Jabeur has four. That means Rybakina is averaging almost two more doubles per match. It’s actually more than that when you measure it per set; Rybakina has 15 DFs in 13 sets; Jabeur has a mere four DFs in 14 sets. The No. 2 seed does not go for a lot on her second serve in terms of speed and she doesn’t have to; after all, Jabeur leads the field in percentage of second-serve points won (63). So there is no reason for her to suddenly switch up her tactics and start serving bigger. Simply using the second serve to get points underway is working just fine.
Rybakina hits her serves much bigger, which naturally involves more risk. The world No. 23 has double-faulted at least four times in three different matches at Wimbledon. Jabeur has played four matches with zero double-faults. Amidst the pressure of a Grand Slam final, too, the difference will likely be even more extreme.
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