Ricky Dimon
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We have reached the quarterfinals at Wimbledon, the business end of the most prestigious tennis tournament in the world. Tuesday promises to be fun, with Carlos Alcaraz facing Tommy Paul and Jannik Sinner going up against Daniil Medvedev. On the women’s side, it’s totally wide open in the bottom half of the draw. Let’s take a look at the Wimbledon best bets to be made on the Day 9 schedule at the All-England Club.
Jasmine Paolini vs Emma Navarro Over 21.5 games (-118)
Both Jasmine Paolini and Emma Navarro have been outstanding throughout this season. Paolini was runner-up at Roland Garros (clay), won the Dubai title (hard courts) and now finds herself in the Wimbledon quarters (grass). Navarro’s 2024 match record stands at 40-15 with a title on the hard courts of Hobart. So far at the All-England Club, she has ousted major champions Naomi Osaka and Coco Gauff. Needless to say, this has all the makings of an incredible matchup between 2 confident women.
Navarro is a dominant 3-0 in the head-to-head series so far, but their most recent meeting more than 3 months ago at the Miami Open was a 3-setter. Paolini is already a much improved player since those previous matches against Navarro, anyway. It’s also possible that either woman – whoever is leading – will have a tough time closing this out given the pressure. It’s the most important match of Navarro’s career by a mile and it’s not like Paolini plays in slam quarterfinals on a daily basis (she had never been to a quarterfinal prior to Roland Garros). With 21.5 not being a particularly big number, even a straight-set result could go over the total.
Lulu Sun +4.5 games over Donna Vekic (-128)
“Who is Lulu Sun?” That may be a question people or asking. Or, to be more accurate, that was a question they were asking before this tournament began. There should be no such questions now. Sun, a 23-year-old from New Zealand who played college tennis at the University of Texas, has won 7 matches this fortnight (3 in qualifying) to earn a spot in the quarters. She upset Emma Raducanu on Centre Court a couple of nights ago, proving that she can handle the big stage despite her relative inexperience. Donna Vekic is a strong grass-court player, but she has been around forever and had previously never gotten this far at Wimbledon. In fact, her lifetime record at this event was 8-9 heading into 2024. I think Sun has a great chance to win outright as well as cover the spread.
Tommy Paul +6.5 games over Carlos Alcaraz (-116)
Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul may be tennis’ most underrated rivalry of the past 2 years. If you don’t know why, you should find out on Tuesday. The head-to-head series is tied at 2-2 and 1 of Paul’s 2 losses was a 3-setter (last summer at the Cincinnati Masters). He has given Alcaraz absolutely everything he can handle. The 13th-ranked American has never played better heading into their fifth matchup. He is 10-1 on grass in 2024 with a title at Queen’s Club, improving his season record to 31-10.
Yes, Alcaraz won Wimbledon in 2023 and is the reigning Roland Garros champion. However, he has been far from dominant in his title defense. The world #3 went 5 sets with Frances Tiafoe before scraping past Ugo Humbert 7-5 in the fourth. I would even sprinkle some on the Paul money line. Taking the over on the game total is also a strong play; this could be the best match of the tournament.
