Ricky Dimon
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We are already into the quarterfinals at Wimbledon, where semifinal spots will start to be handed out on Tuesday. Among those looking to reach the final 4 are Novak Djokovic and Iga Swiatek, both of whom are coming off scares in the last 16. Djokovic battled past Hubert Hurkacz in 4 competitive sets, while Swiatek saved 2 match points against Belinda Bencic to survive from the brink of defeat. Djokovic now faces Andrey Rublev, while Swiatek goes up against Elina Svitolina. Here are my best bets for Day 9.
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Elina Svitolina +5.5 games over Iga Swiatek (-114)
A spread of 5.5 games is simply too much in this matchup. Swiatek may be the #1 player in the world, but it’s pretty obvious that she isn’t the same player on grass as she is on clay. The 3-time French Open champion had never advanced to the Wimbledon quarterfinals prior to this year. She almost didn’t make it again, as Swiatek faced 2 match points against Belinda Bencic on Sunday but came back to win a 3-set thriller. Svitolina won an even longer marathon in the fourth round, showcasing an awesome level of tennis to defeat Victoria Azarenka. The Ukrainian previously ousted Venus Williams, Elise Mertens and Sofia Kenin, all of which are great grass-court wins. I think Svitolina has a decent chance to win this match outright; at the very least the underdog should cover.
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Marketa Vondrousa +2.5 games over Jessica Pegula (-125)
Vondrousova is at her best on clay and Pegula excels especially on hard courts, so this is a bit of a surprising quarterfinal matchup. Whereas Pegula benefited from an extremely favorable draw during the first week, Vondrousova scored impressive victories over Veronika Kudermetova and Donna Vekic in the second and third rounds, respectively. The Czech lefty also beat Bianca Andreescu in Berlin earlier on this grass-court swing. I have Vondrousova winning straight up, but a spread of 2.5 games is a lot in what appears to be an even matchup on paper and those games could come in handy for what will almost certainly be a competitive match.
Andrey Rublev over 0.5 breaks of serve vs Novak Djokovic (-110)
Rublev has always been more of a returner than a server, which is part of the reason why grass is not his best surface. But he is playing great from the baseline and just took down a huge server in Alexander Bublik, breaking serve 3 times on the way to his first-ever Wimbledon quarterfinal berth. The Russian has earned 19 total breaks so far at these Championships, putting him just 1 off the overall lead.
In 4 previous meetings with Djokovic, Rublev has failed to break serve twice, but 1 of those matches was a quick 2-setter on a fast indoor hard court and in the other he generated 5 break points at this year’s Australian Open but failed to convert. The world No. 7 broke Djokovic a combined 7 times in their other 2 encounters, including a hard-to-believe 6 at the clay-court tournament in Belgrade 2 years ago. Obviously it is far tougher to break serve on grass, but asking Rublev to do it just once certainly isn’t too much.
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