Ricky Dimon
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The world #1 on the women’s side survived and advanced on Sunday, as Iga Swiatek saved 2 match points before coming back to beat Belinda Bencic. Now on Monday, it’s the men’s top-ranked player who has his chance to earn a spot in the quarterfinals. Carlos Alcaraz is going up against Matteo Berrettini to headline a jam-packed order of play.
I compiled a 3-1 record with my best bets on Sunday, and it would have been 4-0 if Victoria Azarenka had not squandered a set and a break lead against Elina Svitolina. Let’s keep the momentum going with my plays for Day 8.
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Carlos Alcaraz Over 21.5 games vs. Matteo Berrettini (-116)
Basically what we’re asking for here is Alcaraz to win the match while losing at least 1 set (assuming that he is competitive in the set that he loses if it’s just 1). A 5-set loss for the 20-year-old would almost certainly cash this bet, also. Getting both of those outlets for success at reasonable -116 odds represents great value. Alcaraz should win as the world #1 and considerable favorite in this match, but there is every reason to believe that Berrettini will be competitive. These 2 competitors have faced each other on 3 previous occasions and all 3 have required a final set. That includes a 5-set marathon at the Australian Open in 2022. Alcaraz has improved dramatically since then, but at the same time Berrettini is much more dangerous on grass than he is on a hard court. The Italian finished runner-up at Wimbledon 2 years ago and he has looked awesome so far this tournament. In fact, he has not lost his serve a single time. All of this points to a long match with a lot of games.
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Madison Keys vs. Mirra Andreeva Under 21.5 games (-110)
Keys can be unbeatable on grass — and really on hard courts, too – when she is confident and playing well. She wields one of the biggest games on the WTA Tour and is never afraid to go for broke with her offensive firepower. On grass this summer it’s all clicking and she has, in fact. been unbeatable. The American won the Eastbourne title without losing a set and she also hasn’t dropped a set at Wimbledon. She has been under this 21.5 number in all of her matches so far. I will keep my options open and go with the under instead of with Keys specifically. She is a mercurial performer who can off the rails at any moment and Andreeva is a great defender who will make her opponent hit a lot of balls. Either way, I think this match is 1-way traffic. The most likely scenario is that it’s in Keys’ direction.
Petra Kvitova ML over Ons Jabeur (-135)
On paper, this is arguably the best matchup of the entire fourth round on both the men’s and women’s sides. It’s worthy of being the final. That being said, I’m giving a considerable edge to Kvitova. Last year it was Jabeur making the Wimbledon final (lost to Elena Rybakina), but this time around it’s Kvitova who is flying high. While Jabeur has been plagued by physical problems in 2023, Kvitova won the Miami Open and is 8-0 so far on grass – her favorite surface. The Czech left-hander did not lose a single set en route to the Berlin title and she has mostly cruised at the All-England Club, as well. Kvitova is already a 2-time Wimbledon champion and I don’t see Jabeur being the one to stand in her way of making it 3.
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