Ricky Dimon
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Just like that we have arrived at the prestigious second week at Wimbledon. And even though there was plenty of rain during the first 3 rounds, both the men’s and women’s singles competitions are entirely on schedule heading into fourth-round action. Among those taking the court on Sunday are Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz and Coco Gauff.
Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made on the Day 7 schedule.
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Parlay: Carlos Alcaraz -1.5 sets over Ugo Humbert and Tommy Paul -1.5 sets over Roberto Bautista Agut (-108)
Alcaraz was pushed to 5 sets by Frances Tiafoe in round 3 – but it has to be said that Tiafoe played great. Although Alcaraz could have played better from start to finish, he really raised his level late in the fourth set and in the fifth. There should be no cause for concern that the reigning French Open champion was tested; if anything it should wake him up and inspire him to pick up the pace to an even greater extent. Humbert had previously been to the fourth round of a major only once and he has never been to the quarters. As for Paul, he is simply on fire at the moment. The 13th-ranked American is 9-1 on grass this season with a title at Queen’s Club and a straight-set rout of dangerous grass-court player Alexander Bublik on Friday. Bautista Agut, who has capitalized on a favorable draw, is struggling down at #112 in the rankings. Neither of these matches should be especially competitive.
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Emma Navarro +4.5 games over Coco Gauff (-112)
There is no way I’m giving more than 4 games to Navarro. The only scenario in which I could envision it is facing Iga Swiatek on clay. Well, this isn’t clay and this isn’t Swiatek. Gauff is a formidable foe, but her serve can go off the rails at any moment and there she can’t really be trusted. Moreover, grass generally neutralizes the playing field and makes the margins smaller than they are on clay or a hard court. It’s easier to hold serve and keep matches close when you are the underdog. Navarro owns an awesome 39-15 match record this year, including 6-2 on grass – making her 13-5 on the surface all time. The former University of Virginia standout thrashed Naomi Osaka in round 2 and then scored a very good third-round victory over recent Bad Homburg champion Diana Shnaider. Gauff may win, but count on Navarro covering.
Donna Vekic ML over Paula Badosa (+100)
Vekic is the more reliable player right now, especially on grass. She is 53-34 lifetime on the lawns, including 22-10 over the past 3 years. The Croat is 6-1 in her last 7 matches with her only loss during this stretch coming to an in-form Shnaider in the Bad Homburg championship match. Badosa is playing well and is coming off a nice defeat of Daria Kasatkina, but the sample size of success in the Spaniard’s comeback from injury remains very small. Vekic has enticing value as a small underdog.
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