Ricky Dimon
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Rain, darkness and the 11:00 pm curfew made the first 5 days at Wimbledon a bit chaotic, but we are finally back on schedule. The entire second round in singles is now complete; even third-round action in the bottom half of the men’s draw and in the top half on the women’s side was able to get finished on Saturday night. Thus we can get into a rhythm (barring more bad weather) over the coming days, with one side of each draw playing one day and the other side playing the other day.
Hopefully that will help me catch fire with my handicapping, as well. Here are my 3 best bets for Day 6.
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Alexander Zverev over Matteo Berrettini (-126)
Fading Berrettini has not been lucrative through 2 rounds at the All-England Club, but you have to think it will at some stage. That stage is likely now. The Italian’s wins over Lorenzo Sonego and Alex de Minaur were very impressive, but Zverev is whole different kind of test altogether. More than a year removed from a nasty ankle injury, Zverev has returned to his former self that reached the 2020 U.S. Open final and peaked at #2 in the rankings. Berrettini is coming back from injuries of his own and he will have to do more than beat Sonego and De Minaur to prove that he is really back. Prior to this fortnight, the world #38 had been in dreadful form. Finally, keep in mind that Zverev leads the head-to-head series 4-1 and 3 of his 4 victories have come in straight sets.
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Mirra Andreeva +1.5 games over Anastasia Potapova (-105)
This is a matchup between an older (albeit 22), higher-ranked favorite (albeit a slight one) against a compatriot (in this case fellow Russians). That’s never an easy situation for the one who is “supposed” to win. Potapova already knows that. In fact, she faced Andreeva last fall in Tunisia. Although Potapova won, it was a competitive three-setter and Andreeva was unheard of at the time. Now Andreeva is the marquee rising star on the WTA Tour. The 16-year-old has been on fire dating back to the start of the clay-court swing and will be well inside the top 100 following Wimbledon. With 5 wins (3 in qualifying) already under her belt, Andreev should only be getting better and better while growing in confidence.
Holger Rune vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Over 37.5 games (-115)
Davidovich Fokina -1.5 sets over Botic van de Zandschulp was my best bet of the day for Friday and ADF is once again involved in my favorite play for Saturday. I think he has good value on the money line as a significant underdog against Rune, but I am even more enthusiastic about the over when it comes to the game totals. A number of 37.5 is not large – almost certainly not large enough for a matchup that projects to be extremely competitive. Their only previous encounter came just a couple of months ago on the red clay of Madrid and resulted in a 7-6(1), 5-7, 7-6(5) thriller won by Davidovich Fokina. I expect something similar on grass. Rune is a decent-sized favorite, but ADF has looked great so far this week and don’t forget that he bounced out Hubert Hurkacz last yeat at the All-England Club.
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