Ricky Dimon
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There has been so much rain at Wimbledon during the first week that the tournament is still behind schedule even though Thursday’s weather was perfect from start to finish. Darkness and – even under a closed roof – a curfew have also been factors. As such, we should already be into the third round but more than a few players finished their first-round matches well into Thursday afternoon.
Whatever the case, it will be another busy schedule today at the All-England Club. Some players are competing in the third round, others are in the second round, some are finishing matches that already started the day before (my best bet on Andy Murray against Stefanos Tsitsipas is still pending) and others are starting anew.
Here are my best plays for Day 5.
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Alejandro Davidovich Fokina -1.5 sets over Botic van de Zandschulp (-110)
This is hands down the best bet of the day. Botic van de Zandschulp has been in a terrible slump, to the extent that he was on a 5-match losing streak heading into Wimbledon. The Dutchman did well to defeat Zhizhen Zhang in round 1, but that is just about where the good news ends. Van de Zandschulp needed 5 sets to get through that contest and now he has zero days off before being forced to take the court again.
Davidovich Fokina, on the other hand, cruised past Arthurt Fils – a tougher opponent than Zhang – in easy straight sets and will be well rested for Friday. ADF may not be at his absolute best on grass, but keep in mind this is a guy who upset Hubert Hurkacz at Wimbledon last summer. BVDZ is in real trouble.
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Sofia Kenin over Elina Svitolina (-135)
It’s time to get on the Sofia Kenin bandwagon – especially on this surface. The American boasts a 20-9 lifetime record on grass, including 5-0 already at this event. Yes, Kenin had to go through qualifying (which she did easily) and then upset Coco Gauff in the the first round. In 5 matches, only Gauff has managed to take a set against her.
It should also be noted that Kenin is a former Grand Slam champion from the 2020 Australian Open and reached another slam final in the 2020 French Open. She loves the big stage. Svitolina recently returned from the birth of her first child. The Ukrainian is starting to play well again, but she isn’t her former self – at least not yet. Kenin should win, and it may not even be competitive.
Alex de Minaur -1.5 games over Matteo Berrettini (-120)
I appreciate that fading Matteo Berrettini on grass is not the safest of plays (I learned the hard way in round 1 against Lorenzo Sonego), but this is a good spot for De Minaur. Berrettini was struggling massively before beating Sonego on Thursday and he will have to do a lot more to convince me — or anyone – that he is back. The 2021 Wimbledon runner-up now has a very tough matchup against the counter-punching De Minaur, who will work for every point and keep the Italian on the court for as long as possible.
In any kind of long match the Aussie should have the edge. And I don’t see Berrettini playing well enough to win this one quickly. De Minaur finished runner-up to Carlos Alcaraz at Queen’s Club a couple of weeks ago and his momentum will likely continue.
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