Ricky Dimon
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Second-round competition at Wimbledon wraps up on Thursday, when the sun is expected to finally come out. If it does, a full day of action will be in the cards to whet the appetites of tennis fans. Among the players in action are Novak Djokovic, Alexander Zverev, Hubert Hurkacz and Iga Swiatek. Let’s take a look at the Wimbledon best bets to be made on the Day 4 schedule at the All-England Club.
Hubert Hurkacz -1.5 sets over Arthur Fils (-160)
Hubert Hurkacz is quite simply 1 of the best grass-court players in the world. In 2021 he upset Roger Federer on his way to the Wimbledon semifinals and last summer he pushed Djokovic to 4 very competitive sets. The Pole’s 2024 grass-court campaign already includes a runner-up performance in Halle (lost to world #1 Jannik Sinner). Hurkacz was up to his usual grass-court tricks on Tuesday, striking 24 aces compared to just 3 double-faults during a mostly routine win over Radu Albot. As for Arthur Fils, he is rising star in the sport but is inexperienced on grass. Hurkacz should not have too much trouble in this one.
Yafan Wang +6.5 games over Madison Keys (-138)
It’s hard to justify giving 6.5 games with Madison Keys against anyone on grass. Her return game just isn’t good enough to consistently break serve. With a spread of 6.5, the American would have to break Yafan Wang at least 3 times and maybe 4 times in a straight-set match — and that’s even if she never gets broken herself. Keys is not exactly on fire at the moment and Wang has plenty of experience on grass. The 30-year-old from China is 31-24 lifetime on the surface, including 14-6 combined in 2023 and 2024. I would even sprinkle some on a ridiculous +900 money line, too.
Parlay: Lorenzo Musetti ML over Luciano Darderi and Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard ML over Yoshihito Nishioka (-102)
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard made a surprising exit from the final round of qualifying, but he got a new lease on life with a lucky-loser spot in the Wimbledon main draw. The Frenchman made the most of it by playing more like his real self, upsetting an accomplished grass-court player in Sebastian Korda in 5 sets on Tuesday. Now GMP gets a much more favorable matchup with Yoshihito Nishioka, whose game is not at all suited for the lawn. In the other match, Lorenzo Musetti is in fine form on grass (he finished runner-up at Queen’s Club last month) and Luciano Darderi is a grass-court novice. Like Mpetshi Perricard, Musetti should roll.
Elina Avanesyan +5.5 games over Liudmila Samsonova (-125)
Like Keys vs Wang, this is way too big of a spread. Although Liudmila Samsonova has won 7 matches on grass in 2024, she has not defeated anyone of particular note. Since taking the ‘s-Hertogenbosch title, Samsonova has lost in the Berlin first round, the Bad Homburg second round and needed 3 sets to see off Rebeka Masarova in the opening round at the All-England Club. Elina Avanesyan is playing well, herself, with 5 grass-court victories this summer. The underdog will likely cover a massive spread and she also has a decent chance to win this one outright.
