Ricky Dimon
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The Wimbledon women’s semifinals certainly did not disappoint on Saturday. Jasmine Paolini outlasted Donna Vekic in an epic encounter, after which Barbora Krejcikova’s upset of Elena Rybakina also required 3 sets. What will the men do for an encore on Friday? Novak Djokovic is a massive favorite over Lorenzo Musetti, but Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev could be a blockbuster. In fact, the latter is a rematch of last year’s semis at the All-England Club. Let’s take a look at the Wimbledon best bets to be made on the Day 12 schedule for the men’s singles semifinals.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev Over 38.5 games (-120)
If you are confident that Alcaraz is going to prevail in straight sets, obviously you would want to either avoid this play or back the under. However, I don’t see that happening. And if it doesn’t, this isn’t a big number at all for a 4-set match. A 4-setter with at least 1 tiebreaker, for example, would be a borderline lock to go over 38.5 games. Although Medvedev probably isn’t going to win outright, he is too good to get crushed. The world #5 is coming off a quarterfinal upset of Jannik Sinner, who has been by far the best player on tour dating back to last October. Even if Sinner wasn’t at his best on Tuesday, it was still an incredibly impressive showing by Medvedev.
It is true that the Russian got clobbered by Alcaraz in last summer’s semifinals at the All-England Club, but Medvedev was arguably playing worse at that time and Alcaraz – despite winning the French Open last month – was arguably playing even better then than he is now. The Spaniard’s current fortnight includes a 5-setter against a struggling Frances Tiafoe and a very tight 4-setter against Ugo Humbert. Look for Medvedev to be similarly competitive.
Novak Djokovic -3.5 aces over Lorenzo Musetti (-116)
It’s time for a trip to the math lab to break down this bet. Don‘t be fooled by the fact that Djokovic has hit a modest 9 more aces than Musetti so far at Wimbledon (49 to 38). The 24-time Grand Slam champion has played 4 matches instead of 5 because of an injured Alex de Minaur’s withdrawal prior to their scheduled quarterfinal contest. Even more notable is that Djokovic has played far fewer games than Musetti. Despite just 9 more total aces, Djokovic is averaging more than twice as many aces per game as his upcoming opponent (0.73 to 0.36).
Their head-to-head history suggests those numbers are nothing out of the ordinary. In 6 meetings (5 won by Djokovic), the Serb has struck twice as many aces as the Italian (28 to 14). Now let’s note the game total for this matchup. It is set at either 34.5 or 35.5 depending on the sportsbook. That means each man can be expected to play either 17 or 18 service games on Friday. Based on their ace averages and the projected length of the match, Djokovic can be expected to hit at least 6 more aces (approximately 13 to 6 or 7) than Musetti on Friday. There’s no need to overthink this one; the math confirms it’s a great play.
