Ricky Dimon
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It’s a blockbuster semifinal lineup on the men’s side at Wimbledon, and we will see how it will play out on Friday. Novak Djokovic remains a heavy title favorite, but he is joined in the last 4 by Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev and Jannik Sinner. Along with Djokovic, Alcaraz and Medvedev are 2 of the top 3 players in the world; Sinner pushed the Serb to 5 sets last year at the All-England Club. They aren’t just going to hand Djokovic the trophy on a silver platter. Heading into the men’s semis I have been on a roll with my picks, having gone 5-1 across Tuesday and Wednesday. Here are my Wimbledon best bets for Day 12.
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Novak Djokovic Over 20.5 games vs Jannik Sinner (-110)
Basically, we are asking Djokovic to win the match but lose a set in the process. A five-set loss for Djokovic — which isn’t entirely out of the question–would also get the job done. The 23-time Grand Slam champion earned a fourth consecutive Wimbledon title last summer, and along the way his toughest test came against Sinner in the quarterfinals. Sinner surged to a surprising 2-set lead before Djokovic stormed back to win in 5. That put the veteran’s game total at 25.
Now 21 years old, Sinner has more experience under his belt and is simply a better all-around player than he was last summer. There is no reason why he can’t once again be competitive against Djokovic. Of course, you still have to like the 7-time Wimbledon winner’s chance to advance. Djokovic is halfway to the calendar-year Grand Slam with titles in Melbourne and Paris, so he is supremely motivated to accomplish even more history. He dropped a set to both Hubert Hurkacz and Andrey Rublev in his most recent outings but still took care of business in the end. I anticipate something similar with Sinner on the other side of the net.
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Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev Over 39 games (-112)
In order for this match to exceed the quota, we need 4 sets with an average of 10 games (6-4) per set. A 5-setter would obviously work just fine, as well. Both of the previous encounters between these 2 players were blowouts; Medvedev rolled 6-4, 6-1, 6-2 in the 2021 Wimbledon second round, while Alcaraz cruised 6-3, 6-2 in the Indian Wells final just a few months ago. Something in between those 2 extremes can be expected for Friday. To say that Alcaraz is a much different player now than he was 2 years ago would be a gross understatement; heck, he’s all the way up to #1. As for Medvedev, he isn’t going to get crushed on grass like he did on the painfully slow hard courts of Indian Wells. It’s a wonder he even made it to the Indian Wells final, and no surprise that Alcaraz beat him down swiftly in that final.
Alcaraz has dropped a set in 2 of his last 3 matches (against Nicolas Jarry and Matteo Berrettini). Medvedev is a tougher opponent than both of those guys — at least when you consider Berrettini’s recent struggles. The Russian, meanwhile, is coming off a 5-setter against Chris Eubanks and went 4 with Marton Fucsovics in the third round. Compared to other surfaces, grass naturally produces more competitive matches and longer sets with fewer service breaks. I don’t think this Alcaraz-Medvedev showdown will be an exception.
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