Ricky Dimon
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And then there were 4. The women’s draw at Wimbledon was pretty much in shambles right from the beginning of this fortnight. World #1 Iga Swiatek lost early, as did a whole host of other contenders, and world #3 Aryna Sabalenka (the title favorite) withdrew before the tournament even started. The result is a surprising semifinal lineup featuring Elena Rybakina, Jasmine Paolini, Barbora Krejcikova and Donna Vekic. Let’s take a look at the Wimbledon best bets to be made on the Day 11 schedule for each of the women’s singles semifinals.
Jasmine Paolini -2.5 games over Donna Vekic (-126)
Jasmine Paolini has been on this stage before — not at Wimbledon, but at the French Open just a month ago. The world #7 handled it exceptionally well, rising to the occasion by erasing Mirra Andreeva 6-3, 6-1 in the semifinals before predictably losing to Iga Swiatek in the championship match. It’s no fluke that Paolini is back in another slam semifinal even on a surface other than clay, which is generally her favorite. The Italian captured the biggest title of her career earlier this year on the hard courts of Dubai, proving her versatility. Now she is boasting a 7-1 record on grass this summer.
As for Donna Vekic, this is her first trip to a major semifinal. Moreover, Paolini is leading the head-to-head series 2-1 — with both of her wins coming in straight sets (most recently last summer in Canada). Finally, the Italian has lost just 1 set so far this fortnight (to Madison Keys in a high-quality fourth-round match) and she destroyed a previously red-hot Emma Navarro 6-2, 6-1 in the quarterfinals on Tuesday. I like Paolini to win this one in relatively comfortable fashion.
Barbora Krejcikova +4.5 games over Elena Rybakina (-110)
Elena Rybakina is a big favorite in this match and to take the title, but Barbora Krejcikova is in with a real chance. A former Roland Garros champion (2021), Krejcikova played sparingly — barely at all — on grass prior to 2021. Dating back to that year, she has compiled an impressive 17-7 match record on the green stuff. That should not come as a big surprise given the strength of her serve and a wicked backhand slice.
Krejcikova has won 9 consecutive sets heading into this semifinal showdown, so she is playing with a lot of confidence. It’s also worth noting that the 28-year-old has won both of her previous encounters with Rybakina, in 3 sets on the outdoor hard courts of Melbourne in 2021 and again in 3 on the indoor hard courts of Ostrava in 2022. Rybakina is also playing great and has won Wimbledon before (2022), but this spread is too big.
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