Ricky Dimon
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We are already into the semifinals at Wimbledon, where the women will take center stage on Thursday. Quarterfinal action saw both world #1 Iga Swiatek and defending champion Elena Rybakina tumble out of the tournament, leaving Aryna Sabalenka as the clear favorite.
I am on a roll with my picks, having compiled a 5-1 record over the past 2 days. Here are my best bets for Day 11.
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Aryna Sabalenka -2.5 games over Ons Jabeur (-106)
Sabalenka easily covered 2.5 games for me against Madison Keys on Wednesday and I expect her to do the same against Jabeur in the semis. The Belarusian’s last 7 set scores are 6-2, 6-2, 6-3, 6-4, 6-0, 6-2 and 6-4–all in her favor, of course. She has simply been hitting the ball too big for everyone, just as she did on her way to the Australian Open title at the beginning of this season.
Jabeur is no easy out and reached the Wimbledon final last summer, but Sabalenka is on a different level right now. It should also be noted that the world #2 dominated their only previous grass-court meeting 6-4, 6-3 in the 2021 quarterfinals at the All-England Club.
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Elina Svitolina over Marketa Vondrousova (+115)
Both Svitolina and Vondrousova cashed for me in the quarterfinals, but I can only choose one this time around and it is the Svitolina bandwagon on which I will stay. The Ukrainian used to be a staple of the WTA top 10 and now she appears to be on the fast track to return there since coming back from the birth of her first child. Her list of victories this fortnight has been incredible: Venus Williams, Elise Mertens, Sofia Kenin, Victoria Azarenka, and Swiatek.
Vondrousova had a breakthrough in the form of a 2019 French Open runner-up showing, but that was on clay. Grass generally makes things more difficult for the Czech left-hander. She had been a horrendous 2-8 on grass over the past four seasons (2020 not included since the grass-court swing was cancelled by Covid-19) prior to 2023, so this run has pretty much come completely out of nowhere. If Svitolina keeps up her current level, it will end here and now for Vondrousova.
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