Ricky Dimon
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Following Wednesday’s competition at the All-England Club, only 4 players will remain on both the men’s and women’s sides. Yes, the last of the semifinal spots will be handed out. Among those bidding to advance are Taylor Fritz and Elena Rybakina. Novak Djokovic was scheduled to take on Alex de Minaur, but unfortunately the Aussie has had to withdraw from the tournament due to a hip injury he suffered on Monday. Regardless, let’s take a look at the Wimbledon best bets to be made on the Day 10 schedule.
Taylor Fritz vs Lorenzo Musetti Under 39.5 games (-110)
This is not Taylor Fritz’s first rodeo in the Wimbledon quarterfinals. In 2022, he had a golden opportunity to reach the semis and let it slip away. Although he was facing Rafael Nadal, it was an injured version of Nadal (who eventually withdrew prior to his next match) and the American definitely should have won. Fritz ended up losing in 5. I can’t see him making the same mistake again in a similar situation playing a match he has every reason to win.
Fritz is playing even better than he was 2 seasons ago, with a 35-12 record this year that features a 10-1 mark on grass. He won the Eastbourne event for the third time just a couple of weeks ago and his Wimbledon run includes by a 5-set upset of Alexander Zverev (who led 2 sets to 0). It’s also worth noting that Fritz’s trek through the All-England Club in ’22 began against none other than Lorenzo Musetti. Fritz cruised 6-4, 6-4, 6-3. Musetti is also playing great this summer, but on grass the Italian probably won’t be overly competitive.
Jelena Ostapenko vs Barbora Krejcikova Under 22.5 games (-122)
Unders are usually the way to go when Jelena Ostapenko is involved. Wednesday at the All-England Club is no exception. When she’s hot, she can be unplayable. When she’s cold, she can go completely off the rails. There is usually no in between. The good Ostapenko has been the one on this fortnight — to put it mildly. She has won all 4 of her matches in convincing fashion with set scores of 6-1, 6-2, 6-3, 6-0, 6-1, 6-3, 6-2 and 6-3. It should be no surprise to hear that 6 of the 7 previous encounters between Ostapenko and Barbora Krejcikova (5 won by the Latvian) have been straight-setters and 5 have stayed under 22.5 games. In fact, 5 have featured 19 games or fewer.
If the same Ostapenko shows up in the quarterfinals, there is probably nothing the Czech can do. At the same time, Krejcikova is a solid player who can make an opponent beat herself (as she did to Danielle Collins in a straight-set destruction on Monday). So if the opposite-extreme Ostapenko shows up, it could be 1-way traffic the other way. Regardless, the under is the play.
