Ricky Dimon
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We are back in business at Wimbledon, where I went a perfect 3-0 on my Day 9 picks. Elina Svitolina easily covered (and won outright!) against Iga Swiatek, Marketa Vondrousova did the exact same at Jessica Pegula’s expense and Andrey Rublev cashed Over 0.5 service breaks against Novak Djokovic in the very first set.
Now our attention turns to Wednesday, when the semifinal lineup will be completed. Carlos Alcaraz and Aryna Sabalenka are among those taking the court. Here are my best bets for Day 10.
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Carlos Alcaraz vs Holger Rune Over 36.5 games (-115)
I’m pretty confident that Alcaraz is going to win this match, but there isn’t any value on him as a huge favorite. Rune is too good to make it worth betting on Alcaraz for a small return. Instead, the smartest play on this quarterfinal is the over. The game total is set at a modest 36.5 number–one that these 2 guys should have no trouble exceeding. Their only previous meeting on the main tour had the makings of a thriller before Alcaraz was forced to retire during a second-set tiebreaker at the 2022 Paris Masters (Rune won the first set). Rune fears no one on tour and certainly isn’t scared of a fellow 20-year-old. As long as the Dane takes at least 1 set, this should soar over the quota.
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Aryna Sabalenka -2.5 games over Madison Keys (-120)
My outright bets are looking good for the most part, and on the women’s side they are in especially strong shape since #1 seed Iga Swiatek is now out of the tournament. That opens the door for my 3-star best bet, Sabalenka. The reigning Australian Open champion has been in ruthless form since dropping her lone set of the event to Varvara Gracheva in round 2. Sabalenka’s last 5 set scores are 6-2, 6-2, 6-3, 6-4 and 6-0. Keys is coming off a tough 3-setter against 16-year-old Mirra Andreeva in which the American was on the brink of defeat down 6-3, 4-1–and a point away from being down 5-1 in the second. Andreeva let Keys off the hook, but a player of Sabalenka’s prowess and experience won’t be so generous.
Daniil Medvedev vs Chris Eubanks Over 38.5 games (-112)
Eubanks’ big-serving game is a recipe for the over, especially on grass. The 6’7” American is coming off a 5-set upset of Stefanos Tsitsipas and in the previous round all 3 sets against Christopher O’Connell required tiebreakers. Assuming Eubanks steals just a single set (and there’s no reason to think he won’t), this match is blowing past a 38.5 number. Medvedev has been in good form at Wimbledon, but keep in mind that he lost his opening match in ‘s-Hertogenbosch to Adrian Mannarino and fell in the Halle quarterfinals to Roberto Bautista Agut. It’s not like the Russian is dominant on grass and this is also his first trip to the Wimbledon quarterfinals. I don’t see him winning this one with ease.
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