Ricky Dimon
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With the Australian Open and French Open in the rearview mirror, it’s on to Wimbledon. There will be strawberries and cream, Pimm’s, famous people in the Royal Box and also some grass-court tennis on display over the upcoming fortnight.
The season’s third Grand Slam gets started on Monday, when Novak Djokovic and Iga Swiatek are among those taking the court. Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made on the Day 1 schedule, and also be sure to check out my best outright bets on both the men’s and women’s sides.
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Stan Wawrinka +4 games over Emil Ruusuvuori (-114)
I’m not about to pass up a 3-time Grand Slam champion getting 4 games against a relatively inexperienced opponent. Ruusuvuori is just 11-11 all time on grass and he heads into Wimbledon on a 3-match losing streak (all on grass). Meanwhile, Wawrinka is a 2-time quarterfinalist at the All-England Club. Yes, the Swiss is well past his prime at 38 years old. No matter. He is still comfortably inside the top 100 and owns a winning record for the season (15-12). It should also be noted that Wawrinka played a pair of 5-setters at the French Open, beating Albert Ramos-Vinolas before falling to Stan Wawrinka. Those matches proved that from a physical standpoint Wawrinka is still holding up well in the latter stages of his career. In a Grand Slam setting, I think Ruusuvuori is in trouble in this matchup.
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Magda Linette -1.5 games over Jil Teichmann (-114)
When it comes to odds, this is one of the more alarmingly even matchups on paper. Linette is just a -140 money line favorite and giving only 1.5 games on the spread. It should be more extreme than that, because on the court I don’t foresee this being a fair fight at all. Linette is ranked more than 100 spots better than Teichmann (#23 to #129) and the 31-year-old Pole has racked up 28 grass-court match wins during her career whereas Teichmann is an anemic 4-10 lifetime on the green stuff. The Swiss has an overall losing record this season (17-18), as well. Count on Linette running away with this one.
Alexander Bublik vs Mackenzie McDonald Over 38.5 games (-112)
McDonald is a considerable underdog, but I have him winning this match outright – so it goes without saying that I think it is going to be a competitive contest. A number of 38.5 is not big at all for a grass-court affair, especially not for one that involves Bublik. The Kazakh is one of the biggest servers on tour, but he sometimes struggles in the return game. Service breaks are often few and far between in his matches, and that is the case to a greater extent on grass than on any other surfaces. I would be shocked if this battle lasts only 3 sets, and anything more than 3 would almost certainly take the game total well over this quota.
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