Ricky Dimon
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Rafael Nadal is halfway to the calendar-year Grand Slam. He has captured the first two majors of 2022, following up an Australian Open triumph with his 14th French Open title earlier this month. However, he wasn’t even favored going into either one of those two tournaments and he certainly isn’t the favorite on the grass courts of Wimbledon. That distinction belongs to Novak Djokovic, who came within a single match – the U.S. Open final – of winning the calendar-year Grand Slam last year.
Here are the odds to win the Wimbledon men’s singles title and my best bets. Picks for the women’s tournament will come on Saturday.
Wimbledon odds
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Novak Djokovic -120
Matteo Berrettini +550
Rafael Nadal +800
Carlos Alcaraz +1400
Hubert Hurkacz +1500
Felix Auger-Aliassime +1800
Stefanos Tsitsipas +2500
Nick Kyrgios +3000
Marin Cilic +3500
Andy Murray +8000
3-star value play: Novak Djokovic (-120)
I generally don’t like a player being favored over the entire rest of the field before a tournament even begins, but in this case the value is there on Djokovic. There just aren’t that many serious contenders on grass these days, plus the 2022 Wimbledon event is without Daniil Medvedev and other Russian players (they are banned by the All-England Club because of their country’s involvement in the war against Ukraine). Only three men have better than +1400 odds to take the title and just six are priced at better than +2500. Friday’s draw ceremony also opened the door even wider for Djokovic. Matteo Berrettini, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Nick Kyrgios and Marin Cilic all landed on Nadal’s side of the bracket. Djokovic is the three-time defending champion and he has won Wimbledon six times overall. Look for him to make it seven.
2-star value play: Rafael Nadal (+800)
I had outright bets on Nadal at the Australian Open (a +900 3-star best bet) and French Open (+370). Both cashed, so I am going right back to the well for Wimbledon. Sure the Spaniard may be known as the King of Clay, but obviously he can’t be discounted on the other surfaces. After all, Nadal has won eight major titles on hard courts and grass combined (two Australian Opens, two Wimbledons and four U.S. Opens). He has reached the final in London on three other occasions. I don’t feel as good about Nadal as I do about Djokovic because of a difficult draw and a lingering foot issue, but at +800 the 36-year-old is way too good to completely pass up.
1-star value play: Hubert Hurkacz (+1500)
You can count on two hands the number of guys who have any chance of lifting the trophy, and Hurkacz belongs on the first hand. The 10th-ranked Pole made a run to the Wimbledon semifinals last summer (upset Roger Federer) and he is looking even more dangerous this season. Hurkacz is coming off a grass-court title in Halle, where he beat Auger-Aliassime, Kyrgios and Medvedev along the way. Moreover, the 25-year-old finds himself in the softest section in the draw – where clay-court specialist Casper Ruud is the No. 3 seed. Hurkacz should waltz back into the semifinals, and from there anything can happen.
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