Ricky Dimon
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Saturday is no longer the finale of week one at Wimbledon. There used to be no play on middle Sunday, but that tradition has come to an end. Still, players who advance to the fourth round of any Grand Slam are considered to have made the prestigious second week, and those are the stakes as third-round competition wraps up on Saturday. Rafael Nadal, Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff are among those headlining the order of play.
I made outright futures bets on both the men’s and women’s sides before the tournament began, with Nadal and Gauff included. Novak Djokovic, Ons Jabeur and Jelena Ostapenko are also on my list. All of those five have already seen their odds improve dramatically: Djokovic from -120 to -225, Nadal from +800 to +500, Jabeur from +900 to +300, Ostapenko from +2100 to +800 and Gauff from +1400 to +1000.
Below are my picks for Day 6.
Parlay: Taylor Fritz over Alex Molcan and Coco Gauff over Amanada Anisimova (-123)
Fritz has been awesome all season long and he is in especially fine form now. The 14th-ranked American is coming off a title in Eastbourne and did not lose a set against either Lorenzo Musetti or Alastair Gray in the first two rounds of Wimbledon. Molcan is 1-7 lifetime against opponents in the top 20 and his lone such victory has come on clay, which is his best surface. The 51st-ranked Slovak has never been a factor on grass; two wins over opponents ranked 50th and 65th so far this fortnight are not enough to inspire a ton of confidence. Fritz should roll.
Gauff vs Anisimova is a blockbuster matchup on paper, but Gauff is clearly the superior American right now—especially on grass. The 18-year-old made it to the French Open final last month, and she is even more dangerous on grass than clay. With Serena Williams already out of the tournament, Gauff is serving bigger than anyone left in the women’s draw. The importance of that cannot be discounted on this surface. Gauff won her only previous meeting with Anisimova in straight sets and something similar should be in store for this one.
Barbora Krejcikova ML (-123) over Ajla Tomljanovic
If this matchup had taken place last year, Krejcikova would have been an overwhelming favorite. Now it’s close to even according to the odds. It’s true that following some injury issues Krejcikova is not the same player that won the French Open in 2021, but that’s why you can get her at such a short price and the value is too good to pass up. The world No. 14 has advanced two rounds in both singles and doubles so far at the All-England Club and has not dropped a single set in any match. For someone who hasn’t played a lot in 2022, getting four matches under the belt—and four successful ones—could not be more important. Krejcikova should continue to improve, which is bad news for Tomljanovic.
Nick Kyrgios -1.5 games over Stefanos Tsitsipas (-120)
Tsitsipas and Kyrgios just faced each other a couple of weeks ago in Halle, where Kyrgios prevailed 5-7, 6-2, 6-4 to take a 3-1 lead in the overall head-to-head series. There is no reason to think Tsitsipas is going to turn the tide at Wimbledon. After all, Kyrgios is generally a lot more focused and motivated at Grand Slams than he is at smaller tournaments like Halle. Whereas grass is the Aussie’s best surface, it is most definitely Tsitsipas’ worst. In five appearances at the All-England Club, this is just the 23-year-old Greek’s second trip out of the first round, and he has never reached the quarterfinals. Kyrgios destroyed Filip Krajinovic 6-2, 6-3, 6-1 on Thursday and if he plays anything like that on Saturday, he should not have too much trouble with Tsitsipas.
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