Ricky Dimon
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Ons Jabeur was my +900 3-star best bet on the women’s side before the tournament started and she booked her spot in the final by beating Tatjana Maria in Thursday’s semis. Now it’s men’s semifinal day on Friday, and my 3-star play is still alive. Novak Djokovic has advanced to the semifinals and will battle Cameron Norrie for a spot in the championship match alongside Nick Kyrgios, who got a walkover from an injured Rafael Nadal.
Below is my best bet for Day 12 at Wimbledon.
Novak Djokovic vs Cameron Norrie over 5.5 service breaks (-150)
Novak Djokovic is such a heavy favorite that there isn’t any value on him. Britain’s Cameron Norrie is so unlikely to win – and perhaps not even to be competitive – that there isn’t any value on him, either. The smart move is to go searching for props, and the even smarter move is to play the percentages and back the over on the service breaks market. Djokovic has gone over this number in 4 of his 5 matches so far, with the exception being a 6-1 6-4 6-2 second-round beatdown of Thanasi Kokkinakis in which there were 5 breaks. Norrie should at least be more competitive than Kokkinakis, and a longer match obviously means more games are being played and there are more chances to break. Norrie has also gone over this number in 4 of his 5 matches, and 2 of those featured a double-digit number of breaks.
The British hopeful is a much better returner than server. He is a baseline player who relies on breaking opponents to make up for the fact that he doesn’t wield an overpowering serve. Djokovic is arguably the greatest returner of all time. There is no reason to think that this matchup will suddenly be one in which service breaks are few and far between for Djokovic and Norrie. Stick with the trends and take the over.
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