Caleb Wilfinger
The Super Bowl is finally upon us and we could have another classic on our hands as the Kansas City Chiefs look to successfully complete the unprecedented 3-peat against the Philadelphia Eagles — a team the Chiefs knocked off to win the Super Bowl 2 years ago. One of the great things about the Super Bowl is the plethora of betting opportunities that present themselves across a variety of markets, and that even extends as far as whether there will be a safety scored. The safety is one of the rarest methods of scoring in football, but it has happened multiple times in past Super Bowl games. Will we see a safety in Super Bowl 58? Let’s get into the odds and our best prediction.
Read our full Super Bowl 59 Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadlephia Eagles predictions
Will a Safety be Scored in Super Bowl 59 odds
These are the current Super Bowl odds on whether a safety will be scored, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:
- A safety to be scored (+1400)
- A safety not to be scored (-3000)
DraftKings is currently offering the best odds for a safety to be scored in Super Bowl 58 at +1400, and they also have odds for a safety not not to be scored as well.
Find out Prop Holliday’s best Chiefs player prop bets and best Eagles player prop bets for Super Bowl 59
Will a Safety be Scored in Super Bowl 59 picks and predictions
A safety to be scored in Super Bowl 59 (+1400)
Even though this is a bet with a low probability of succeeding, I simply can’t recommend taking odds of -3000 on any sort of bet in good conscience. Furthermore, because this market is so heavily tilted toward the “no” price, I do think there is some value on a safety to be scored at +1400 odds. There have been 9 safeties recorded in 58 Super Bowls to this point, meaning that they statistically occur once every 6.44 years in this game. We haven’t actually seen a safety in a Super Bowl in over a decade, not since the Seahawks scored one against the Broncos on the very first play of Super Bowl 48. Even with that information in mind, the current odds of 14-1 are more than fairly priced given that the implied probability of a safety in this game is much closer to 15% than the 6.67% implied odds suggest.
Both of these defenses are fierce, particularly up front. After all, the Chiefs are a top 10 unit in sacks over the last 2 seasons, while the Eagles are up to 11th in sacks after sitting at 19th a season ago. With that in mind, both teams have a proven ability to rush the passer and there is every chance a player is able to break through and get the tackle in the end zone. The math and the schematic brilliance of both of these defensive staffs indicates that a safety being scored in the Super Bowl shouldn’t have odds as high as this. Therefore, it’s worth a tiny sprinkle on the +1400 price in the market.
Set your sights on our Chiefs vs Eagles Same Game Parlay at +1449 odds
