Super Bowl Against The Spread – Chiefs +1.5
This line currently sits at +1.5, but I believe once WRs JuJu Smith-Schuster and potentially Kadarius Toney are cleared to play this week this could close pick’em. It may be a closed-minded way to look at this game, but KC is 16-3 (playoffs included) and its 3 losses have been by a combined 10 points. The Chiefs haven’t lost by more than 4 points all season. If your goal is to take the safest route possible in this game, backing a team like KC and a QB like Patrick Mahomes isn’t a bad choice.
It’s really difficult to fully evaluate this Eagles team — and especially their defense — based on them playing the single easiest schedule in the NFL. Even when the Eagles faced tough competition, they caught a break with Dak Prescott out in their first matchup against Dallas, Aaron Rodgers exiting in the middle of their game against Green Bay and San Francisco QB Brock Purdy getting injured in the NFC title game. The Eagles’ pass defense ranks #1 in the NFL in EPA per drop-back allowed; Mahomes is #1 in the NFL among QBs in EPA per drop-back. Philadelphia only faced 2 QBs ranked in the top 10 in EPA this season (Dak #7 and Goff #8). Dak posted a +0.27 EPA per drop-back with a 59% success rate against Philly. That was Dak’s 5th-best EPA and success rate out of 12 regular-season games. Goff posted a +0.036 EPA and 39% success rate against the Eagles’ defense, which ranks as his 4th-worst EPA and 2nd-worst success rate of the season. They also faced #12-ranked Trevor Lawrence, but even that game was played in a monsoon. There is no doubting that the Eagles defense’ is talented, with the 2nd-best pressure rate defense in the NFL and 2 top-notch CBs in Darius Slay and James Bradberry, but are they really the best pass defense in the NFL? Likely not.
Mahomes has played 7 games (SF, Den 2x, LAC 2x and Cincinnati 2x) against top 10 EPA pass defenses. KC went 6-1 in those games and produced an EPA per drop back of +0.277, equivalent to the 2nd-best QB in the NFL for a full season. To me the Broncos’ defense is the closest comparison to the Eagles and Mahomes threw for 320+ in both games but did throw 6 TDs and 4 INTs. The Eagles’ pass rush is a notch or two better than Denver and could cause issues with Mahomes on a bad ankle. Overall, however, I think Mahomes will be able to score on this defense. Philly’s weakness on defense is definitely the LB corps and I don’t see it being able to slow down Travis Kelce over the middle of the field.
I think the Eagles will be able to run the ball on a Chiefs’ defense that has not faced a single top-10 rush offense. However, in this NFL and in facing Mahomes they will have to match them score for score or they will be down and have to flip their run-heavy script. If Jalen Hurts was midseason Hurts and not dealing with a bad shoulder, I would likely lean to the Eagles. But since he has been back, he has posted a poor 42% success rate and -3.0 completion percentage over expected. He has routinely missed throws down the field and has only thrown for 6.0 yards per attempt. That is a far cry from his pre injury performance and he has not proven lately that he could be relied on to make big throws when needed in a close game. If the Chiefs get ahead early, it may be lights out.
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